MT: Mason-Dixon: Burns (R) and Tester (D) in a tight battle
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  MT: Mason-Dixon: Burns (R) and Tester (D) in a tight battle
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Author Topic: MT: Mason-Dixon: Burns (R) and Tester (D) in a tight battle  (Read 6286 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2006, 03:13:26 PM »

Aren't most polls biased towards Dems? This is very bad...

Mason-Dixon is biased to no one.

Correct. In fact, if anything, they have slightly overestimated Republicans in the past. (Ex. They predicted Bush would win Minnesota in 2004 I believe.)
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AuH2O
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2006, 03:22:45 PM »

Mason-Dixon has no structural bias in their polls. Because polling is imperfect sometimes they are off a little one way or the other, occasionally they miss big but very rarely (as opposed to Zogby, who only misses big).

SUSA is usually skewed a bit towards the Dems. Zogby is skewed towards incorrectness.

If anything polls tend to underestimate momentum IMO because a poll released on Day X was conducted over the previous few days. Burns is moving at just the right time.
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nini2287
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« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2006, 03:53:00 PM »

SUSA isn't skewed towards the Dems, it's just like Zogby-lite. Most of their polls are good, but occasionally (more often than M-D or Rass) they have a really terrible one.

SUSA seems to bit a skewed towards the GOP of late...I doubt Kyl is up by 13 and that Steele and Cardin are tied.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2006, 04:53:08 PM »

If Conrad Burns wins re-election, it will set a bad example Sad and give the impression that corruption on the part of lobbyists is all well and good

But in the meantime, please donate to Bob Menendez!
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2006, 05:26:41 PM »

Well Montana and Colorado are quite similar in other ways politically.  Long term, I think both states are trending towards the Democrats.  By 2009, Colorado could have a Democratic Governor; two Democratic Senators; a Democratic majority in the Congressional Delegation and have elected a Democratic President in 2008.

As for Montana, hopefully in 2009 we will have at least two Democratic Senators, a recently re-elected Democratic Governor and strong Democratic majorities in the legislature. 
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Conan
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« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2006, 07:17:51 PM »


But in the meantime, please donate to Bob Menendez!
[/quote]

There's a difference between Menendez and Burns, I think.  One is that Burns is so harmless.  Sure he's corrupt, but he doesn't look like it at all.  I think we should all give him the benefit of the doubt, his senility probably got to him and he probably illegally took funds by accident.
Burns is so nice.  I'm sure if you let him he could tell you all sorts of stories about ns and little Guatemalen men.

Now take Menendez.  He even looks corrupt.  And plus, he's from New Jersey.  And I'm willing to bet he doesn't know any good stories, except how he crushed the opposition as boss of Hudson County or wherever.  I'll take old Burnsie any day of the week.
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Burns is morally corrupt and legally corrupt. He will go down after the election, win or lose. Menendez must be corrupt being hispanic and living in a city. Menendez hasnt used a lobbyists restaurant as an office. Menendez doesnt continue to have ethics woes after allegations come about while Burns fines it ok to take corporate jets. Menendez at least isnt morally corrupt. NJ has no more corruption than Montana or any other state. As a state we have the highest income in the nation, highest number of people with college degrees, highest population by density of scientists, doctors, and engineers, and contribute a great deal to the national economy.

Montana corruption:

Former Gov. Judy Martz:

"          The Republican drew fire the month before taking office when she said she was willing to be considered a "lapdog" of industry, if it meant she would fight for better-paying jobs. She was also criticized for making a joke about spousal abuse in a speech. Martz claimed the lapdog remark was misunderstood and denied making light of abuse.

Thirteen of her top staff have either resigned or been fired, including her most trusted adviser who quit after causing a drunken-driving crash that killed the House majority leader in August 2001.

Martz raised eyebrows when she recalled taking the aide from the hospital to the governor's residence several hours after the crash and washing the clothes he had worn.

Some staffers have quit for other jobs, but one left following news reports that authorities had suspected him of trying to hide the aide's involvement in the fatal crash. Another staffer quit after reports that she had used state phones and time to organize a GOP political fund-raiser.

Montana Democrats filed an ethics complaint against Martz in 2001, alleging she got a sweetheart land deal from a company involved in a multimillion-dollar pollution lawsuit with the state.         "

Sen. Burns:

"            Yet the former Marine is in trouble. For starters, he is serially offensive. In the last campaign, Burns called Arabs "ragheads" and had to apologize. In 1994 he played along when a rancher made a demeaning comment about African Americans. Last month he told a woman, within earshot of the media, that he was looking forward to getting "knee-walking drunk." Says staff member Matt Mackowiak: "Montanans know Conrad [and know that] he likes to crack jokes." Yet Burns' approval rating has dipped to 38%. As for legislating, the former farm-radio broadcaster's record over three terms are meager: Asked what his greatest successes over two decades were, aides touted a cell-phone measure that requires providers to route emergency calls to the closest hospital and another that opens the satellite spectrum to public auction.

Burns' real problem, however, is not with making law but with staying on the right side of it. Federal investigators are looking into his ties to Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist who has admitted bribing lawmakers. In 2003 Burns got the Interior Department to make a $3 million grant to a rich, Michigan-based tribal client of Abramoff's; Burns also received $150,000 in contributions from Abramoff, his co-workers and his clients over the past five years. (Burns has since given those funds to charity.) In an April article in Vanity Fair, Abramoff said, "Every appropriation we wanted [from Burns' committee], we got ... I mean, it's a little difficult for him to run from that record."       "

I dont have time to look into state legislature corruption.

NJ Corruption:

Sen. Torricelli

"        Torricelli was admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee this summer, following an investigation into whether he had improperly accepted gifts from businessman David Chang, a campaign contributor who earlier this year pleaded guilty to violating federal election laws.           "

He has not been found guilty of any wrongdoing and he isnt in jail.

Former Gov. McGreevey

Had gay affair with a person he gave a position who was unqualified for it. Everyone does the same thing. Corruption by law? No, morally yes.

Sen Menendez:

Rented home to federally funded clinic for the poor below market rates. Approved by House ethics committee. Clinic is rumored to be under federal investigation.


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HardRCafé
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« Reply #31 on: November 05, 2006, 12:09:19 AM »

Had gay affair with a person he gave a position who was unqualified for it. Everyone does the same thing.

I don't know about where you live, but where I live, not everyone hires someone unqualified and has a gay affair with him.

I enjoy your defense of Menendez and especially Torricelli, though!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #32 on: November 05, 2006, 06:44:38 AM »

Let's all keep in mind that Mason-Dixon, no matter how good they are, are still suspectible to normal polling pit-falls (kind of like AuH2O said).

1. They don't push leaners as much, Burns at 47% is not out of line with other polls, the difference is that Tester has been doing better than this. Has he lost support or is it just soft/undecided on voting?

2. MoE is still there. Even with MD a tied result could just as well be Tester +2 or something like that.

All that said, this is worrying... Sad
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