MT: Mason-Dixon: Burns (R) and Tester (D) in a tight battle

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Montana Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2006-11-02

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Polls gone crazy.

[okstate]

Ouch for Democrats.

[Alcon]

Burns has been tightening this for a while.  I can't say I'm overly surprised.

[Tender Branson]

To quote myself out of my Senate Prediction, dated 2006-08-14 Vers. 33:

"Why is it hypocritcal to say that Burns will win ? Maybe it´s like someone in the forum said that he will be the Jim Bunning of 06. Maybe he will save himself over the finish line."

Now here we are ...

[opebo]

Alas the tossups are not MO-TN-VA, but MO-MT-VA. 

[AuH2O]

In Burns we trust

[Adlai Stevenson]

Another poll shows Tester leading 50%-46%.  And it was me who said Burns was the Jim Bunning of 2006! 

[HardRCafé]

Oh, hot chocolate.

"The consensus here is that Tester is the only possible Democrat who could lose to Burns."

[Eraserhead]

Uggh...I guess it really has tightened up. I think if Burns had another week to gather more momentum he would most likely pull it off but as it stands I think Tester still takes it.

[Democratic Hawk]

If Conrad Burns wins re-election, it will set a bad example and give the impression that corruption on the part of lobbyists is all well and good

Dave

[adam]

What a bummer this must be for the Democrats. This is a seat in which they can not lose, and weren't planning on losing. This was supposed to have been easy for them.

I am no hard core fan of Conrad Burns...but I can't help but to support the guy. Give em' hell you senile old bastard!

[© tweed]

Wow, we're gonna lose the senate because of this f.ucking seat.

[Sam Spade]

The toss-ups right now are MO-MT-VA.  Opebo's right for once.

If Tester and Lamont lose, the Daily Kos and that guy whose name sounds like a fancy gyro sandwich should simply shut their site down and leave politics forever. 

There is simply no reason why Burns should be anywhere near close to winning

[poughies]

A couple of things here to note.... Let's start with the positive.... first everyone talks about the Bunning race, but the last polls I see out of there still had Bunning with a comfortable upper single digit lead. Second, Tester overperformed in the primary by some 20 points..... Third, Tester still holds a small lead in most polls....

Now, the negatives. It is clear to everyone that Burns very well might win, hell I think he really could win. Tester hasn't been able to come close to sealing the deal in anyway. Maybe Morrision would have been the better candidate. Kos is looking mighty bad right now with Tester having a real shot at losing, and Lamont.... well lets just say he would be lucky to lose by only 6.....

[Nym90]

I don't see what the comparison to Kentucky 2004 is other than in both cases you had old senile Republicans who by any objective measure didn't deserve reelection who may win narrowly. But Bunning was far ahead for most of the campaign, and it was Mongiardo that had all the momentum at the end and almost came back to pull off a win in a seat that wasn't supposed to be competitive. So a more apt comparison would be Tester hanging on to win in that regard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Kentucky, the incumbent Senator had a big lead until shortly before election day and only just hung on to a victory that a better candidate would have had in the bag by mid October (or before then). His opponent was under-rated, under-resourced and had sod all meaningful support from the national party.

You can reverse nearly all of that for Montana this year.

[Nym90]

In Kentucky, the incumbent Senator had a big lead until shortly before election day and only just hung on to a victory that a better candidate would have had in the bag by mid October (or before then). His opponent was under-rated, under-resourced and had sod all meaningful support from the national party.

You can reverse nearly all of that for Montana this year.

You could also add that Tester and Bunning were/are both being helped a lot by the national environment which in both cases could ultimately be decisive in pulling through a candidate who might've otherwise lost.

[Eraserhead]

All good points and really we should have known it was going to get narrow in the end. Its freakin' Montana...but I think we are still looking at a Tester victory of a few points.

[ottermax]

Uh-oh, this isn't good.

Aren't most polls biased towards Dems? This is very bad...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aren't most polls biased towards Dems? This is very bad...

Mason-Dixon is biased to no one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Neither did Colorado

[Alcon]

Neither did Colorado

Yes they did.

Um...no.  Why do you say that?

[Alcon]

Neither did Colorado

Yes they did.

Um...no.  Why do you say that?

I have a friend in Colorado, and in a matter of days, she went from extremely conservative to extremely liberal last year.

OK, now explain some portion of the other 2,130,329 voters.

[Alcon]

I am going to visit Washington Next summer, any places you recommend me seeing?

James

Haha, well...all right then...

Seattle is nice.  So are the mountains.  It's all pretty nice.  The Pike Place Market is a must-visit.

Ignore the hellhole I live in at all costs ().