IN-09: SurveyUSA: Sodrel takes a two point lead over Hill

[okstate]

46 percent Sodrel (R)
44 percent Hill (D)

http://www.whas11.com/news/local/stories/110306rtsurveypolitical9thDistrict.13aec4d3.html

[okstate]

Some thoughts: This election is really tough to get a real read on. This polling clearly contradicts the idea of the "wave" that was raised last night when Northup was down 8 points (and the polls are from the same company, too!)

Granted, if Sodrel wins, the Democrats still can (and likely would) take the House. But I don't see how they get above a 20 seat pickup if districts like this are not going to flip.

[Sam Spade]

Remember, waves and just simple "movement" are rarely, if ever, linear.  All the three endangered Indiana GOP Reps (even Hostletter) have consistently improved their standing since their lows back in mid-September, even as other formerly "safe" GOP Reps have lost big leads.

Sodrel has run an excellent campaign the past month and was about the only GOP Rep. (other than Davis in KY-04) to actually improve his standing because of the Foley scandal.

[Democratic Hawk]

Some thoughts: This election is really tough to get a real read on. This polling clearly contradicts the idea of the "wave" that was raised last night when Northup was down 8 points (and the polls are from the same company, too!)

This is actually the first independent poll that has Sodrel leading, so I'm not going to buy too much into it. I can't speak for GOP internals because I haven't seen any. I just hope Sodrel taking a small lead in this poll is not courtesy of John Kerry

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That they can but it is always possible that the GOP may hold districts like IN-09, which, on the face of it, should be ripe for a Democratic pick-up yet lose many a safer seat to the Democrats. Seats that shouldn't even be on the radar

This election is likely to spring one or two shocks and surprises

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC most polls of this race has been within the MoE (or very close to being inside it) for a few months or so now.

Regardless, past three SUSA polls of it:

R 46, D 44
R 43, D 47
R 46, D 48

[Democratic Hawk]

Sodrel has run an excellent campaign the past month and was about the only GOP Rep. (other than Davis in KY-04) to actually improve his standing because of the Foley scandal.

At the time, on my thread, I actually questioned the wisdom of Hill running that ad 'linking' Sodrel to Foley. I wouldn't have done so. Foley ad's should have been confined to target members of the House Leadership for, at worst, protecting a sexual predator, or, at best, for turning a blind-eye to it

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, are Research 2000 likely to release anymore Indiana polls?

[Democratic Hawk]

Btw, are Research 2000 likely to release anymore Indiana polls?

Most likely I'd say, Research 2000/WISH-TV has been covering IN-07, IN-08 and IN-09. Their last polls were undertaken October 17-20, Carson led 48-43, Ellsworth led 50-43 and Hill led 47-45

Dave

[mgrossbe]

What i do not understand is that shansburg or whatever his name is, is pulling away democratic voters. Over the weekend he let it slip out that he would cacaus with the reps if elected and that has been all over the news. I think he will decided this race since the difference is only gonna be a point at most.

[Democratic Hawk]

What i do not understand is that shansburg or whatever his name is, is pulling away democratic voters. Over the weekend he let it slip out that he would cacaus with the reps if elected and that has been all over the news. I think he will decided this race since the difference is only gonna be a point at most.

I wish these third parties, who have neither a wing nor a prayer, would bugger off

Dave

[HardRCafé]

This is big.  Sodrel was supposed to be most vulnerable of all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is big.  Sodrel was supposed to be most vulnerable of all.

When? He's been viewed as the most likely of the GOP incumbents for Indiana marginals to hang on.
I still think he'll lose, but not by much and he'll be back in 2008 (demographic trends in this district are not friendly to Democrats. The changes are not huge, but in a district as finely balanced as this one often has been, a little change can, and has actually, made all the difference).

[HardRCafé]

Fred Barnes believes that Sodrel is the most vulnerable Republican congressman, even through Bush carried the 9th District in 2004 with 59% of the vote.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Sodrel

Of the “Indiana 3,” Sodrel is the most vulnerable.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/indiana_9-15.html

[Sam Spade]

Fred Barnes believes that Sodrel is the most vulnerable Republican congressman, even through Bush carried the 9th District in 2004 with 59% of the vote.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Sodrel

Of the “Indiana 3,” Sodrel is the most vulnerable.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/indiana_9-15.html

Fred Barnes doesn't what he's talking about.

[Adlai Stevenson]

You're not a fan of The Beltway Boys then? 

[Sam Spade]

You're not a fan of The Beltway Boys then? 

Eh. they're ok, but Fred really doesn't know what he's talking about in terms of race competitiveness.  He's really out of his league there.

Interestingly, Kondracke has historically given very accurate predictions concerning the House/Senate/President, but often times during the show it doesn't sound like he knows what he's talking about either.  Still, his understanding of the political environment is better overall.

[Democratic Hawk]

You're not a fan of The Beltway Boys then? 

Eh. they're ok, but Fred really doesn't know what he's talking about in terms of race competitiveness.  He's really out of his league there.

Interestingly, Kondracke has historically given very accurate predictions concerning the House/Senate/President, but often times during the show it doesn't sound like he knows what he's talking about either.  Still, his understanding of the political environment is better overall.

I gather Fred Barnes is a rank conservative, likely a Republican. Kondracke's more moderate. Does any one know if he has any party loyalty or is he an Independent?

Dave

[HardRCafé]

Kondracke is a Democrat, but a damn good one.

[Democratic Hawk]

Kondracke is a Democrat, but a damn good one.

Glad to hear of it

Dave