Will Chesa Boudin be recalled?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At this point I'm not only pretty much dead certain he will be, I'd be surprised if he even breaks 40%.

[Aurelius]

Yes, but it'll be close. My prediction is the recall wins by 4 to 6 points.

[Хahar 🤔]

I just made a post about this last night that I guess BRTD didn't put any stock in.

The school renaming got out-of-towners' attention because it fit neatly into existing national narratives, but understandably parents were less concerned with what schools were named than whether their children were attending those schools at all. This wouldn't have happened if the board hadn't actively stonewalled efforts to plan for reopening.

For similar reasons, this has little to nothing to do with the Chesa Boudin recall. The issues are not related. Boudin has the support of a large majority of the Board of Supervisors, whereas the recalled school board members received no support from city politicians and a number of supervisors actively endorsed recall. David Campos, who ran in today's Assembly special election on an avowedly left-wing platform, is among the names listed under the endorsements section on the school board recall website. This simply did not play out as a meaningfully partisan issue.

I would be fairly surprised if he were recalled. Not a single member of the Board of Supervisors has endorsed the recall attempt and a majority of supervisors have come out against recall. London Breed does not like Boudin and might be expected to endorse his recall, but the fact that she hasn't yet is significant because it indicates that the recall effort hasn't gained enough groundswell support to feel comfortable.

If you don't trust my skepticism, the local paper has much the same opinion. The people who led the school board recall effort are not at all the same people who are pushing to recall Boudin, and many of the former group have the general hostility toward recall elections typical of California liberals. Drawing parallels between one and the other is lazy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just made a post about this last night that I guess BRTD didn't put any stock in.

The school renaming got out-of-towners' attention because it fit neatly into existing national narratives, but understandably parents were less concerned with what schools were named than whether their children were attending those schools at all. This wouldn't have happened if the board hadn't actively stonewalled efforts to plan for reopening.

For similar reasons, this has little to nothing to do with the Chesa Boudin recall. The issues are not related. Boudin has the support of a large majority of the Board of Supervisors, whereas the recalled school board members received no support from city politicians and a number of supervisors actively endorsed recall. David Campos, who ran in today's Assembly special election on an avowedly left-wing platform, is among the names listed under the endorsements section on the school board recall website. This simply did not play out as a meaningfully partisan issue.

I would be fairly surprised if he were recalled. Not a single member of the Board of Supervisors has endorsed the recall attempt and a majority of supervisors have come out against recall. London Breed does not like Boudin and might be expected to endorse his recall, but the fact that she hasn't yet is significant because it indicates that the recall effort hasn't gained enough groundswell support to feel comfortable.

If you don't trust my skepticism, the local paper has much the same opinion. The people who led the school board recall effort are not at all the same people who are pushing to recall Boudin, and many of the former group have the general hostility toward recall elections typical of California liberals. Drawing parallels between one and the other is lazy.

Nah, I just kind of overlooked it with everything else I was reading.

Interesting input. I guess we'll see. I'll definitely rescind the not breaking 40% part though. But while there's definite differences as noted well, I can't see how he could be popular now.

[PSOL]

Yes, because he’s entirely at the mercy of the Democratic machine to get re-elected, a machine that has turned against him. Now, if Chesa Boudin had an independent machine backing him he’d win by 2-3% a la what we’ve seen in Seattle, but he doesn’t and the machinery against him is way stronger with bigger financial backing than the myriad of dissident progressives and patchwork of Bay Area grassroots organizations can lift him over.

This should be a lesson—like the recall attempt and resignation against the most progressive, ex homeless San Francisco councilor or the the Democrat-Republican grand alliance against the DSA—that the Democrats will not tolerate candidates of and for the working class.

[lfromnj]

Yes, because he’s entirely at the mercy of the Democratic machine to get re-elected, a machine that has turned against him. Now, if Chesa Boudin had an independent machine backing him he’d win by 2-3% a la what we’ve seen in Seattle, but he doesn’t and the machinery against him is way stronger with bigger financial backing than the myriad of dissident progressives and patchwork of Bay Area grassroots organizations can lift him over.

This should be a lesson—like the recall attempt and resignation against the most progressive, ex homeless San Francisco councilor or the the Democrat-Republican grand alliance against the DSA—that the Democrats will not tolerate candidates of and for the working class.

Shoplifting isn't a job PSOL.

[Orwell]

Yes, because he’s entirely at the mercy of the Democratic machine to get re-elected, a machine that has turned against him. Now, if Chesa Boudin had an independent machine backing him he’d win by 2-3% a la what we’ve seen in Seattle, but he doesn’t and the machinery against him is way stronger with bigger financial backing than the myriad of dissident progressives and patchwork of Bay Area grassroots organizations can lift him over.

This should be a lesson—like the recall attempt and resignation against the most progressive, ex homeless San Francisco councilor or the the Democrat-Republican grand alliance against the DSA—that the Democrats will not tolerate candidates of and for the working class.

Shoplifting isn't a job PSOL.

Especially if you're bad enough to get caught

[PSOL]

Yes, because he’s entirely at the mercy of the Democratic machine to get re-elected, a machine that has turned against him. Now, if Chesa Boudin had an independent machine backing him he’d win by 2-3% a la what we’ve seen in Seattle, but he doesn’t and the machinery against him is way stronger with bigger financial backing than the myriad of dissident progressives and patchwork of Bay Area grassroots organizations can lift him over.

This should be a lesson—like the recall attempt and resignation against the most progressive, ex homeless San Francisco councilor or the the Democrat-Republican grand alliance against the DSA—that the Democrats will not tolerate candidates of and for the working class.

Shoplifting isn't a job PSOL.

Especially if you're bad enough to get caught

Maybe if the LAPD stop killing innocent teenagers and being apart of terrorizing gangs than Boudin wouldn’t have been elected, but that is past and he’s still going down by probably less than a percentage point.

[Orwell]

Yes, because he’s entirely at the mercy of the Democratic machine to get re-elected, a machine that has turned against him. Now, if Chesa Boudin had an independent machine backing him he’d win by 2-3% a la what we’ve seen in Seattle, but he doesn’t and the machinery against him is way stronger with bigger financial backing than the myriad of dissident progressives and patchwork of Bay Area grassroots organizations can lift him over.

This should be a lesson—like the recall attempt and resignation against the most progressive, ex homeless San Francisco councilor or the the Democrat-Republican grand alliance against the DSA—that the Democrats will not tolerate candidates of and for the working class.

Shoplifting isn't a job PSOL.

Especially if you're bad enough to get caught

Maybe if the LAPD stop killing innocent teenagers and being apart of terrorizing gangs than Boudin wouldn’t have been elected, but that is past and he’s still going down by probably less than a percentage point.

That would be a problem for Boudin if he was elected in Los Angeles

[Aurelius]

Xahar's info has changed how I see this, so I am now predicting a No victory by 10-15%. Differential turnout patterns are hard to predict though, and I still think (and hope) there's about a 20% chance of a Yes victory.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We can only hope

[Vice President Christian Man]

Since the SF establishment turned against him, it's more likely to happen than not, especially with the results of the school board recall.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/SovernNation/status/1504109781761421320

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/SovernNation/status/1504109781761421320

It’s going to be much more closer than this, but this does show that relying on Democratic infrastructure to serve the working class is a fools errand.

[lfromnj]

Again PSOL shoplifters aren't part of the working class.

[PSOL]

Again PSOL shoplifters aren't part of the working class.

💩

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How many "working class" people even live in San Francisco either for that matter? Most people considered upper middle class in most of the country would have difficulty living there. I could make double my salary and would still have an easier time living on my current salary in Minneapolis than on that in San Francisco.

[lfromnj]

How many "working class" people even live in San Francisco either for that matter? Most people considered upper middle class in most of the country would have difficulty living there. I could make double my salary and would still have an easier time living on my current salary in Minneapolis than on that in San Francisco.

Many working class 1st gen immigrant Asian workers. Obviously one could consider tech workers technically working class but I don't think that's the point of the question.

[bayareabay]

I will vote no on recall, but I think he will be recalled sadly. He gets blamed for every crime that happens here. It's so ridiculous.

[lfromnj]

https://sfstandard.com/community/asian-american-voters-support-recall-da-chesa-boudin/

Recall up 57 to 22 according to this poll. Has 67% support among Asians. RIP PSOL's working class praxis.

[Orwell]

I will vote no on recall, but I think he will be recalled sadly. He gets blamed for every crime that happens here. It's so ridiculous.

Well he hasn’t done a really good job of convincing people to uhh not be mad at him

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://sfstandard.com/community/asian-american-voters-support-recall-da-chesa-boudin/

Recall up 57 to 22 according to this poll. Has 67% support among Asians. RIP PSOL's working class praxis.

Lol @ the Black crosstab.

The (paid) No arguments (which are longer than the Yes arguments) are illuminating. One good thing to come out of Boudin's tenure is adding Cantonese-speaking victims' advocates to the office who presumably weren't there before. There are a lot of allegations that the recall initiative is led by Republicans and conservatives, and that the next DA won't be elected by the voters.

[smoltchanov]

Hope - yes. The same - with Gascon in LA...

[Farmlands]

I just made a post about this last night that I guess BRTD didn't put any stock in.

The school renaming got out-of-towners' attention because it fit neatly into existing national narratives, but understandably parents were less concerned with what schools were named than whether their children were attending those schools at all. This wouldn't have happened if the board hadn't actively stonewalled efforts to plan for reopening.

For similar reasons, this has little to nothing to do with the Chesa Boudin recall. The issues are not related. Boudin has the support of a large majority of the Board of Supervisors, whereas the recalled school board members received no support from city politicians and a number of supervisors actively endorsed recall. David Campos, who ran in today's Assembly special election on an avowedly left-wing platform, is among the names listed under the endorsements section on the school board recall website. This simply did not play out as a meaningfully partisan issue.

I would be fairly surprised if he were recalled. Not a single member of the Board of Supervisors has endorsed the recall attempt and a majority of supervisors have come out against recall. London Breed does not like Boudin and might be expected to endorse his recall, but the fact that she hasn't yet is significant because it indicates that the recall effort hasn't gained enough groundswell support to feel comfortable.

If you don't trust my skepticism, the local paper has much the same opinion. The people who led the school board recall effort are not at all the same people who are pushing to recall Boudin, and many of the former group have the general hostility toward recall elections typical of California liberals. Drawing parallels between one and the other is lazy.

Well, the whole California democratic establishment also threw their full weight behind the affirmative action ballot initiative, and we all saw how that turned out. Fortunately, it seems there are enough people left who don't just follow their political leaders' every opinion.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I would be fairly surprised if he were recalled. Not a single member of the Board of Supervisors has endorsed the recall attempt and a majority of supervisors have come out against recall. London Breed does not like Boudin and might be expected to endorse his recall, but the fact that she hasn't yet is significant because it indicates that the recall effort hasn't gained enough groundswell support to feel comfortable.

If you don't trust my skepticism, the local paper has much the same opinion. The people who led the school board recall effort are not at all the same people who are pushing to recall Boudin, and many of the former group have the general hostility toward recall elections typical of California liberals. Drawing parallels between one and the other is lazy.

Well, the whole California democratic establishment also threw their full weight behind the affirmative action ballot initiative, and we all saw how that turned out. Fortunately, it seems there are enough people left who don't just follow their political leaders' every opinion.

The Mayor has publicly been neutral on the recall, but she’s known to dislike Boudin.

Boudin has largely been the mayor’s political human shield on crime, absorbing most of the criticism from voters. The result: 74% of the respondents disapproved of him and 78% gave Boudin a negative job performance rating, according to a March survey of 800 likely voters by EMC Research, which was commissioned by the pro-recall campaign.

Breed has done little to hide her disdain for Boudin. While she may be publicly neutral on the recall, when asked in February whether she had faith in what the district attorney was doing, Breed replied: “I am not necessarily on the same page with a number of things that he’s doing.”

I’m more curious who Boudin’s replacement would be and whether they would be able to put a dent in crime rates than whether he’ll be recalled.

Breed hasn’t spent time focused on who she’d pick to replace Boudin. She is concentrating on the issues that voters care most about — like housing and homelessness. But if Boudin is recalled, she will be on the clock.