FL-Mason-Dixon: Rubio + 7

[2016]

Senator Marco Rubio (R, Incumbent) 49 %
Rep. Val Demings (D) 42 %

President Biden has a 33 % JA with Independents and Rubio is leading Demings among Indies by Double Digits.

MASON-DIXON NEWS RELEASE

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio holds a 7-point lead over Rep. Val Demings, the presumed Democratic frontrunner hoping to take him on in the November General Election.

That’s according to a new Mason-Dixon Florida poll. Rubio holds a 49% to 42% advantage over Demings among registered voters in the new survey.

That is consistent with spreads seen in other polls taken in the contest.

The findings don’t offer entirely good news for Florida’s two-term Senator. He’s below 50%, never a safe place for an incumbent. And Demings has a sizable lack of recognition early in the year, while Rubio has a significant unfavorable recognition. That means she has more room for growth than he does.

“An incumbent running below 50% often leaves the door open for a challenger to significantly tighten a race under the right circumstances,” Mason-Dixon pollsters stated in a news release.

Demings has her own challenges, starting with the unpopularity of President Joe Biden, which would need to improve significantly to offer her any boost. The poll found 40% of Floridians approve of his job performance, and 55% disapprove.

The new Mason-Dixon Florida poll found Rubio’s strengths are among men (with 58% to Demings’ 35%), people age 50 or older (51% to 40%), among White voters (58% to 35%), and among people living in the Republican-dominated regions of North Florida (58% to 33%) and Southwest Florida (55% to 36%).

Demings’ strengths are in Rubio’s home region of Democratic-dominated Southeast Florida (with 53% to Rubio’s 40%) and among Black voters (82% to 7%).

The splits are closer, but Rubio leads Demings in her home region of Central Florida (47% to 39%), in Tampa Bay (50% to 43%), and among Hispanic voters (44% to 39%).

Demings holds a close advantage among women (48% to 41%).

Rubio also has a 10-point lead among independent voters, (47% to 37%), while also grabbing 91% of Republican voters. Demings has the backing of 87% of Democratic voters.

The favorability ratings found that just about everyone in Florida recognizes Rubio, the former Florida House Speaker who now is in his 12th year as a U.S. Senator. The poll found 44% of Florida’s registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, 37% have an unfavorable opinion, and 14% have a neutral opinion. Just 5% said they don’t recognize Rubio’s name.

With Demings, the former Orlando Police Chief who now is in her sixth year in Congress representing Orlando, the poll found 32% of voters do not recognize her name. Another 30% have neutral opinions of her, while 27% have positive opinions, and 11% have negative opinions.

Biden is having trouble with Florida’s independent voters, with just 33% approving of his job performance. He has an 80% approval rating among Democrats, and a 7% approval among Republicans.

Biden’s approval rating is above 50% with Black voters (79%), Hispanic voters (51%), and with voters in Southeast Florida (51%).

Biden’s approval rating is under 40% with White voters (30%), men (37%), those 50 or older (38%), and with voters in Southwest Florida (32%), North Florida (34%), and in Central Florida (35%).

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/Mason_Dixon_Florida_Senate_Feb_16th_2022.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

This (or the crosstabs, to be more precise) would suggest remarkably little change in the Republican coalition in FL since Rubio's last election in 2016 — those margins among white/Hispanic/black voters are nearly identical to his 2016 race. Not sure I buy this, but you could make a case based on polling and the VA/NJ results from last year that it’s 2012->2016 R trends more so than 2016->2020 R trends that are fueling Republican strength this year (i.e., remarkably few GOP gains with non-white voters except in more isolated or 'clustered' areas with high social cohesion, continued D collapse among white working-class voters, suburban and urban margins closer to 2016 than 2020 in many places, etc.). But again, it’s important not to read too much into polling, especially crosstabs (it was a mere observation, not necessarily a prediction).

[Person Man]

This (or the crosstabs, to be more precise) would suggest remarkably little change in the Republican coalition in FL since Rubio's last election in 2016 — those margins among white/Hispanic/black voters are nearly identical to his 2016 race. Not sure I buy this, but you could make a case based on polling and the VA/NJ results from last year that it’s 2012->2016 R trends more so than 2016->2020 R trends that are fueling Republican strength this year (i.e., remarkably few GOP gains with non-white voters except in more isolated or 'clustered' areas with high social cohesion, continued D collapse among white working-class voters, suburban and urban margins closer to 2016 than 2020 in many places, etc.). But again, it’s important not to read too much into polling, especially crosstabs (it was a mere observation, not necessarily a prediction).

It makes sense, right? Maybe some Republican strength was inflated by COVID and the service industry. And now we are are back to how things were trending from Obama’s re-election to COVID. Of course which side the changes benefit will depend largely on the environment. In 2014/2016 a lot of these moderate mainline six figures earning college graduates were more patient with Republicans who promised to cut their taxes and the military funded, in 2018 and 2020, they saw that Republicans were more interested in abortion and immigration than those other things so they didn’t come home. The inverse of this is true as well.

[TodayJunior]

Unpopular yet bold (and pessimistic) statement: DeSantis will run ahead of Rubio in the end. Of all the D challengers that are running, Val Demings will perform the best.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's February it's not October yet it's still a battlefield not a tipping pt, users think it's October it's not, over yet