MI-Blueprint Polling (D): Trump +2 over Biden

[MT Treasurer]

40% Donald Trump (R)
38% Joe Biden (D-inc.)
8% Third-party candidate

13% Undecided

https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/BPP-Michigan-Survey.pdf

Some interesting crosstabs:

• Biden’s performance among African Americans is notably soft—some 37% say they are undecided or supporting a third party candidate at this time.
• Trump holds a 4.9% lead among non-Hispanic White voters.
• Trump leads by 4% among voters with a college degree.
• Trump leads by 1% among those without a degree.

[SnowLabrador]

Further proof that Trump will win in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Further proof that Trump will win in 2024.

.
Lol it's within the margin of error c'mon

[Person Man]

Further proof that Trump will win in 2024.

.
Lol it's within the margin of error c'mon

With a large chunk of the Democratic base splitting. This could be a 1980-style scenario (Where are a third party candidate takes from the incumbent) but that's probably more a testament to the polarization than how unpopular/popular each side is given how even then, Republicans would only win the NPV by like 1-2%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine taking a poll with neither candidate getting more than 40% serious.

If anything, it shows that 2016 and 2020 were not flukes and Dems aren't getting Obama '08 or even '12 ever soon.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Let the slaughtering begin.

[Redban]

13% undecided ....

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Lots of Democrats are upset about what they've seen from the past year (i.e. practically no wins in Congress aside from mostly judgeships and two weak party leaders who only - barely - won, exclusively on an anti-Trump sentiment), so most of the third-party voters will go to Biden in the end, whose bigger problem is with undecideds who tend to break Republican. But as the electorate becomes more polarized, there will if anything be considerable less third-party voters than all the contempt that people have for the duopoly would otherwise suggest. I expect 2024 and future cycles to more or less repeat 2020 in that regard.

[Chips]

Throw this poll into the mix I guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is well within the margin of error and Trump is gonna get Prosecuted by GA DA on Election fraud anyways by the end of yr, even if he's Acquitted he won't be able to run for Prez, he would be occupied by Trial

These Tro poll numbers fool Rs into thinking he won't be Prosecuted he is still under criminal and Civil Investigation

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lots of Democrats are upset about what they've seen from the past year (i.e. practically no wins in Congress aside from mostly judgeships and two weak party leaders who only - barely - won, exclusively on an anti-Trump sentiment), so most of the third-party voters will go to Biden in the end, whose bigger problem is with undecideds who tend to break Republican. But as the electorate becomes more polarized, there will if anything be considerable less third-party voters than all the contempt that people have for the duopoly would otherwise suggest. I expect 2024 and future cycles to more or less repeat 2020 in that regard.

Lol those sort of democrats would vote dem in a poll where Biden's up against Trump.

[Hollywood]

Lots of Democrats are upset about what they've seen from the past year (i.e. practically no wins in Congress aside from mostly judgeships and two weak party leaders who only - barely - won, exclusively on an anti-Trump sentiment), so most of the third-party voters will go to Biden in the end, whose bigger problem is with undecideds who tend to break Republican. But as the electorate becomes more polarized, there will if anything be considerable less third-party voters than all the contempt that people have for the duopoly would otherwise suggest. I expect 2024 and future cycles to more or less repeat 2020 in that regard.

Lol those sort of democrats would vote dem in a poll where Biden's up against Trump.

They aren't showing up, and we all know it.  Nationwide Generic Polls with Approvals are demonstrating that Biden and the Democrats have a huge problem with almost every Biden Policy.  The reason Trump is probably a winner in most swing states is due to the fact that he could actually handle the job, and Biden's unfavorables have pretty much exceeded Trumps.  And polls literally ask people who they think would do a better job on the economy and Covid-19, and the former for Trump pretty much dictated Trump's level of support. .   

Craig is up definitely up  48% to 43%, because this is a D+4 poll in a state where Republicans tied with Democrats in 2020 that will come from Independent portion which, as extrapolated from the information, will be around 56-43% given a compromise between the CNN exit polls from 2021 and the Trafalgar breakdown. 

I might even be underestimating the situation due to the Nursing Home Scandal that kills thousands of people in her state, as well as her cover-up of the real statistical information.  This blind-sighted Democrats in NJ because it was a major issue among independents voters that polls never even considered.  Thus, the Republican was greatly under-estimated by Ds who, let's face it, are doing their best to cover it up. 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lots of Democrats are upset about what they've seen from the past year (i.e. practically no wins in Congress aside from mostly judgeships and two weak party leaders who only - barely - won, exclusively on an anti-Trump sentiment), so most of the third-party voters will go to Biden in the end, whose bigger problem is with undecideds who tend to break Republican. But as the electorate becomes more polarized, there will if anything be considerable less third-party voters than all the contempt that people have for the duopoly would otherwise suggest. I expect 2024 and future cycles to more or less repeat 2020 in that regard.

Lol those sort of democrats would vote dem in a poll where Biden's up against Trump.

They aren't showing up, and we all know it.  Nationwide Generic Polls with Approvals are demonstrating that Biden and the Democrats have a huge problem with almost every Biden Policy.  The reason Trump is probably a winner in most swing states is due to the fact that he could actually handle the job, and Biden's unfavorables have pretty much exceeded Trumps.  And polls literally ask people who they think would do a better job on the economy and Covid-19, and the former for Trump pretty much dictated Trump's level of support. .   

Craig is up definitely up  48% to 43%, because this is a D+4 poll in a state where Republicans tied with Democrats in 2020 that will come from Independent portion which, as extrapolated from the information, will be around 56-43% given a compromise between the CNN exit polls from 2021 and the Trafalgar breakdown. 

I might even be underestimating the situation due to the Nursing Home Scandal that kills thousands of people in her state, as well as her cover-up of the real statistical information.  This blind-sighted Democrats in NJ because it was a major issue among independents voters that polls never even considered.  Thus, the Republican was greatly under-estimated by Ds who, let's face it, are doing their best to cover it up. 

I'm saying they'll choose the dem if they're asked in a poll, but they won't bother to show up to vote, aka I think the polls are underestimating Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

Imagine taking a poll with neither candidate getting more than 40% serious.

If anything, it shows that 2016 and 2020 were not flukes and Dems aren't getting Obama '08 or even '12 ever soon.

That is the point. Under-40-for-both polling indicates only extreme polls. I once saw a poll in which Barack Obama had a lead over a Republican in Tennessee in 2008. As I recall Obama led 38-36. Obama did get the '38', but little more.