Anyone know approximate R bias for next decade? Also, has ‘10 maps gotten fairer via shifts?

[MillennialModerate]

Everyone has been talking about how redistricting this year has gone so well for Democrats but I’m having a hard time seeing it. I’d say a better assessment is that it hasn’t been a total death sentence but well might be a stretch.

Does someone good with the numbers have the UPDATED answer for how many Biden won districts there will be as compared to how many that existed before?

Since Biden won the popular vote by 5% a fair map would mean (roughly) 240 or so seats would have to be Biden won districts.



ALSO, side note: can anyone explain these numbers to me? Also if they’re off in any way let me know. But if these are correct it seems as if the maps have become somewhat more fair as the decade has gone on - is that a shift in demographics or something? The result of dummymanders?


_______________________
2020:
Democrat House Popular vote: 51%
Republican House Popular vote: 49%

Democratic percentage of seats: 51%
Republican percentage of seats: 49%

Dem: (even)
GOP: (even)

______________
2018:
Democrat House Popular vote: 53%
Republican House Popular vote: 45%

Democratic percentage of seats: 54%
Republican percentage of seats: 46%

Dem: (+1)
GOP: (+1)


_____________
2016:
Democrat House Popular vote: 48%
Republican House Popular vote: 49%

Democratic percentage of seats: 45%
Republican percentage of seats: 55%

Dem: (-3)
GOP: (+6)


_________________
2014:
Democrat House Popular vote: 46%
Republican House Popular vote: 51%

Democratic percentage of seats: 43%
Republican percentage of seats: 57%

Dem: (-3)
GOP: (+6)

__________
2012:
Democrat House Popular vote: 49%
Republican House Popular vote: 48%

Democratic percentage of seats: 46%
Republican percentage of seats: 54%

Dem: (-3)
GOP: (+6)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like they’ll be a gain of about 5-10 Biden seats (currently 224) and the median seat will vote slightly to the right of the nation, possibly to the left, but either way by a negligible amount

[MillennialModerate]

Seems like they’ll be a gain of about 5-10 Biden seats (currently 224) and the median seat will vote slightly to the right of the nation, possibly to the left, but either way by a negligible amount

If the median seat is to the left of the nation wouldn’t that mean the House will be even? (Aka a fair map?!)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems like they’ll be a gain of about 5-10 Biden seats (currently 224) and the median seat will vote slightly to the right of the nation, possibly to the left, but either way by a negligible amount

If the median seat is to the left of the nation wouldn’t that mean the House will be even? (Aka a fair map?!)

An even House would not at all surprise me given the likely fate of the D gerrymander in NY, the D gerrymander in IL, and the Rs either not pushing (see KY) or unsuccessfully pushing the envelope in most states they control (see OH).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like they’ll be a gain of about 5-10 Biden seats (currently 224) and the median seat will vote slightly to the right of the nation, possibly to the left, but either way by a negligible amount

If the median seat is to the left of the nation wouldn’t that mean the House will be even? (Aka a fair map?!)

Sort of? Overall form a partisanship standpoint as to who wins the majority, yes, but lots of individual gerrymanders and a general lack of competitive seats