New Mexico Governor Race

[bayareabay]

MLG (D) previously defeated Pearce (R) by a 14 point margin in 2018.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Likely D

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Pure tossup

[S019]

Likely D

[Real Texan Politics]

Tossup but I'll be bold and say tilt R.

[Calthrina950]

Tossup/Lean D. Grisham is not particularly popular and has been a polarizing Governor. Ronchetti, the likely Republican nominee, performed strongly against Lujan in 2020. And New Mexico has the kind of demographics that, in a Republican-leaning midterm, could produce a victory for that party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not a Tossup it's Safe D , NM is likely to go R as SD is to Go D with how popular Kristi Noem is, that's why she doesn't have a competetive race

[TWTown]

I voted Lean D since there wasn't a Tilt D option. If the Republican nominee is Ronchetti then we might actually have a race on our hands. Grisham's approvals have been slumping recently (I've yet to see a poll that has her with negative net approvals though) and Ronchetti ran a good senate campaign despite being substatially down on funding. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Ronchetti fails to be nominated and Grisham proceeds to win re-election by a comfortable margin.

[Biden 2024]

Surprise Republican victory of the night.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Surprise Republican victory of the night.

Nm is likely to go  R as SD goes D, No

[Xing]

Lean D. Certainly could flip if Republicans are having a very good night, but it's not going to be easy.

[wbrocks67]

Tossup/Lean D. Grisham is not particularly popular and has been a polarizing Governor. Ronchetti, the likely Republican nominee, performed strongly against Lujan in 2020. And New Mexico has the kind of demographics that, in a Republican-leaning midterm, could produce a victory for that party.

where is the proof of this?

[Schiff for Senate]

Poll closed, but I'd say lean D.

[Minnesota Mike]

New Mexico Republicans held their state convention today and it was a cluster ****.  They had to switch to paper ballots after their electronic system had problems. There was a several hour long delay before the voting during which many delegates left. Official results are still not out but there some delegates are tweeting out results.

- Jay Block 29% (199)
- Rebecca Dow 28% (192)
- Greg Zanetti 23% (157)
- Mark Ronchetti 110 votes (has signatures needed)

20% is needed to automatically get on the ballot but you can get also get on the ballot by submitting signatures. Horrible showing by the presumed frontrunner Ronchetti.

[It’s so Joever]

Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah sure Likely R, it's not Lean R it has a majority of poor Latinos than any other state

[MT Treasurer]

I could see Lujan Grisham losing in a wave (agree that it won’t be easy, though), but I’m not sure I buy NM flipping before ME (esp. since Mills hasn’t exactly been more "popular" than Lujan Grisham and barely won a majority in 2018, whereas Grisham was elected with 57% of the vote) or NM voting way to the right of MN.

[Senator Incitatus]

New Mexico Republicans held their state convention today and it was a cluster ****.  They had to switch to paper ballots after their electronic system had problems. There was a several hour long delay before the voting during which many delegates left. Official results are still not out but there some delegates are tweeting out results.

- Jay Block 29% (199)
- Rebecca Dow 28% (192)
- Greg Zanetti 23% (157)
- Mark Ronchetti 110 votes (has signatures needed)

20% is needed to automatically get on the ballot but you can get also get on the ballot by submitting signatures. Horrible showing by the presumed frontrunner Ronchetti.

Hard to call this a "horrible showing" when Ronchetti likely didn't even bother putting a convention team together. These things require a high level of organization and if you can get on the ballot easily via signatures (unlike in New England convention systems), it's just not worth the effort. Having those signatures in the bag (and being able to spend on advertising) is also a better sign of ultimate primary support than capturing delegate selection caucuses or swaying local party heads, which are usually both simply cases of throwing money at a problem.

Really don't see him having a hard time here, but an independent poll would be nice.

P.S. Can we merge this with the other thread? I forget how that works.