2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Highest votes
2.Banff-Airdrie 4,523 (a bit odd since some of this riding the NDP has serious hopes of winning provincially)

The provincial riding you're talking about consists of the Banff/Kananaskis part of the federal riding, but not the Airdrie part.

Banff is like that one weird blue county in Wyoming. Very touristy, full of young transplants. You throw in a bunch of hipsters, ski bros and tour guides into a small Alberta town, and you get a bunch of NDP voters.

Airdrie is like a Calgary suburb - although given that most of Calgary is already suburban, it's like a second-order suburb. The kind of place where most people have white-collar jobs but insist on driving an F-350 to work. Those aren't NDP voters.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oof, the two most outspoken anti-Pierre Tories in Quebec (Godin and Rayes) both had their ridings vote Poilievre.

Edit: And as I suspected, the idea of Atlantic Canada as a bastion of red toryism seems to be a little outdated. Political cultures are more homogenized across Canada than they used to be in the past, the average CPC voter in Alberta has similar views as the average CPC voter in Nova Scotia - there are just a lot fewer in Nova Scotia!

[Benjamin Frank]

Back to our regularly scheduled posts:

Lowest and highest votes by province
Newfoundland and Labrador
Labrador: 133
Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame: 542

Prince Edward Island
Charlottetown: 361
Malpeque: 636

Nova Scotia
Cape Breton–Canso: 630
South Shore–St. Margarets: 1,033

New Brunswick
Madawaska–Restigouche: 324
Fundy Royal: 1,79

Quebec
Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou: 172
Pontiac: 1,183

Ontario
Humber River-Black Creek: 325 (AKA York West)
Carleton: 3,844

Manitoba
Churchill–Keewatinook Aski: 279
Provencher: 2,446

Saskatchewan
Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River: 765
Cypress Hills–Grasslands: 2,441

Alberta
Calgary Forest Lawn: 787
Foothills: 5,062

British Columbia
Vancouver Kingsway: 337
North Okanagan–Shuswap: 3,406 (North Okanagan is mostly Vernon)

[Benjamin Frank]

Over/under 1,000 votes
New Foundland and Labrador: 0/7
Prince Edward Island: 0/4
Nova Scotia 1/10 (I guess the fishers are still unhappy)
New Brunswick 3/7 (easy to guess which 3 ridings)
Quebec: 2/76
Ontario: 82/39
Manitoba: 9/5
Saskatchewan: 12/2
Alberta: 31/3
British Columbia: 27/15
Territories: 0/3
Total: 167/171

Interesting. The median riding turnout was right around 1,000 votes.

In the other Conservative held riding in New Brunswick, Mirmamichi-Grand Lake turnout was a relatively low 653, however it did go 82.1% for Pierre Polievre, so, he did his bit.

The other riding in Quebec with over 1,000 votes was oddly Lac-Saint-Louis with 1,049 votes. Polievre beat Charest 558-418.

The other riding in Saskatchewan with less than 1,000 votes was Saskatoon West with 954 votes.

The other ridings in Alberta with less than 1,000 votes were Calgary Skyview with 885 votes and  Edmonton Griesbach with 937 votes. Edmonton Strathcona had 1,150 votes with Polievre getting 68%

In the 15 Liberal held ridings in British Columbia the over/under was 4/11

[If my soul was made of stone]

I see the Tories' cunning new strategy to finally break Quebec is to gather under the leadership of Marc Lépine.

[Benjamin Frank]

CNN -  BREAKING NEWS

Jean Charest has spoken to Donald Trump and is refusing to concede defeat.

(Just kidding)

[jaichind]

Does anyone have access to the raw vote totals as opposed to points?

[jaichind]

At first, I thought it was a map of Jeb Bush sweeping Canada.

[Benjamin Frank]

Does anyone have access to the raw vote totals as opposed to points?

It was posted.

Riding By Riding Results



https://cpc-leadership-2022.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/10200514/Results-by-Riding.pdf

If you're looking for the grand vote totals, if nobody else has done it in a few hours, I'll add it all up.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Say what you want about Skippy, his acceptance speech was better than we've heard from a Conservative leader in a LONG time. Even a lot of Liberals online were saying that.

[trebor204]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

[jaichind]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

Wow, in vote share terms Poilievre exceeded Harper's 2004 victory.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

Wow, in vote share terms Poilievre exceeded Harper's 2004 victory.

Both vote share and points, actually. Incredible stuff.

I've suffered seven months of hearing that Poilievre is just a fringe candidate of anti-vaxxers, crypto chuds, incels, Jordan Peterson stans, etc. These are not the results of a "fringe" politician, it's a profound and decisive vote of confidence from the broad, often divided section of the Canadian population that identifies with the right.

[adma]

Say what you want about Skippy, his acceptance speech was better than we've heard from a Conservative leader in a LONG time. Even a lot of Liberals online were saying that.

Though IMO he'll *always* speak with the strangely offputting intonation of an eternal Campus Conservative--then again, that could be no more of a barrier than Chretien's fractured English (and French).

His cleverest "humanizing" gesture was putting his wife up front.

[Benjamin Frank]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

To me anyway, Charest underperformed as badly as Charlie Angus did.

[mileslunn]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

To me anyway, Charest underperformed as badly as Charlie Angus did.

I think Charest performed as expected.  Party is a lot more conservative than one he led in 1997 and likewise its centre of power is in Prairies not Quebec so a Quebec Red Tory was always going to have a tough time winning.  Peter MacKay was probably only one from old PCs who maybe could pull off a win and fact he couldn't I think was sign anyone with PC roots at least if known (O'Toole comes from former PCs but most didn't know it at time) cannot win today's Conservative leadership.

Likewise anyone from Quebec needs to be a libertarian like such as Bernier or Duhaime.  A Mulroney or Legault type cannot win in present day party

[If my soul was made of stone]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

To me anyway, Charest underperformed as badly as Charlie Angus did.

I think Charest performed as expected.  Party is a lot more conservative than one he led in 1997 and likewise its centre of power is in Prairies not Quebec so a Quebec Red Tory was always going to have a tough time winning.  Peter MacKay was probably only one from old PCs who maybe could pull off a win and fact he couldn't I think was sign anyone with PC roots at least if known (O'Toole comes from former PCs but most didn't know it at time) cannot win today's Conservative leadership.

Likewise anyone from Quebec needs to be a libertarian like such as Bernier or Duhaime.  A Mulroney or Legault type cannot win in present day party

As with Truss/Sunak earlier this month, it also seems that the overwhelming perception that the race would be merely a formality coronating Crypto Bro Incel Mass Shooter Pierre Poilievre, which took hold as the Narrative extremely early on, was very influential in that it dissuaded support for the other candidates through the mindset of "everyone else is in the tank for Poilievre, why bother supporting someone who's a lost cause?" even if those other people were thinking the same thing. Ultimately "electability" is as much a mental fiction created by what we think other people will think as something that exists ipso facto on its own merit.

[Benjamin Frank]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

To me anyway, Charest underperformed as badly as Charlie Angus did.

I think Charest performed as expected.  Party is a lot more conservative than one he led in 1997 and likewise its centre of power is in Prairies not Quebec so a Quebec Red Tory was always going to have a tough time winning.  Peter MacKay was probably only one from old PCs who maybe could pull off a win and fact he couldn't I think was sign anyone with PC roots at least if known (O'Toole comes from former PCs but most didn't know it at time) cannot win today's Conservative leadership.

Likewise anyone from Quebec needs to be a libertarian like such as Bernier or Duhaime.  A Mulroney or Legault type cannot win in present day party

For me, that would be easy to say in hindsight. I had thought the progressive conservatives were still about 1/3 of the party.

[mileslunn]

Total votes and points:


Aitchison 4,947 votes (1.18%), 356.66 points (1.06%)
Baber 22,380 (5.36%), 1,696.76 (5.03%)
Charest 48,651 (11.65%), 5,421.62 (16.07%)
Lewis 46,374 (11.10%), 3,269.54 (9.69%)
Poilievre 295,283 (70.07%), 22,993.42 (68.15%)

To me anyway, Charest underperformed as badly as Charlie Angus did.

I think Charest performed as expected.  Party is a lot more conservative than one he led in 1997 and likewise its centre of power is in Prairies not Quebec so a Quebec Red Tory was always going to have a tough time winning.  Peter MacKay was probably only one from old PCs who maybe could pull off a win and fact he couldn't I think was sign anyone with PC roots at least if known (O'Toole comes from former PCs but most didn't know it at time) cannot win today's Conservative leadership.

Likewise anyone from Quebec needs to be a libertarian like such as Bernier or Duhaime.  A Mulroney or Legault type cannot win in present day party

For me, that would be easy to say in hindsight. I had thought the progressive conservatives were still about 1/3 of the party.

They probably were at beginning as lets not forget all the new members Poilievre signed up.  I think the pandemic created a situation where there was a strong untapped anger out there and many of those in past weren't involved in politics, but Poilievre was able to tap into their frustration.  Unfortunately when people are mad, being articulate with detailed policies doesn't excite people same way as rhetoric and bashing whomever people think is cause of problems.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's also interesting is the drop in support for social conservative candidates. Social conservative voters were key in both 2017 and 2022, and their preferences helped elect both Scheer and O'Toole.

2017: 16% (Lemieux+Trost)
2020: 25% (Lewis)
2022: 10% (Lewis)

I suppose some of that is due to the party signing up new memberships of more disenfranchised types who are less likely to be socially conservative. Social conservatives may have also been turned off from participating in the party because they didn't get anything in return from supporting O'Toole and Scheer.

[DistingFlyer]

Constituency-level results have been released, so here's a map (indicating the winning candidate's share of the vote, rather than margin - though I may make one showing that at some point too):



Best riding for Poilievre: Labrador (88.7%, with a lead of 83.5%)
Best province for Poilievre: Alberta (80.0% of votes, 79.4% of points) (leading Lewis by 68.6% in votes & 67.8% in points)

Best riding for Charest (% of the vote): Ville-Marie - Le Sud-Ouest - Ile-des-Soeurs (59.2%)
Best riding for Charest (% margin): Notre-Dame-de-Grace - Westmount (24.5%)
Best province for Charest: Quebec (33.3% of votes, 32.3% of points) (trailing Poilievre by 27.7% in votes & 29.9% in points)

Best riding for Lewis: Haldimand - Norfolk (30.1%, trailing Poilievre by 27.9%)

Best riding for Baber: York Centre (31.2%, trailing Poilievre by 18.8%)

Best riding for Aitchison: Parry Sound - Muskoka (16.7%, trailing Poilievre by 42.2%)

[Oryxslayer]

What's also interesting is the drop in support for social conservative candidates. Social conservative voters were key in both 2017 and 2022, and their preferences helped elect both Scheer and O'Toole.

2017: 16% (Lemieux+Trost)
2020: 25% (Lewis)
2022: 10% (Lewis)

I suppose some of that is due to the party signing up new memberships of more disenfranchised types who are less likely to be socially conservative. Social conservatives may have also been turned off from participating in the party because they didn't get anything in return from supporting O'Toole and Scheer.

Or they just supported PP because as the 'consensus candidate' it was his race to lose. Same with the PC types from further up. Like there comes a point where a candidate is just that popular within his lane that all types of voters in all types of factions support them, with the exception of the most radical parts of those factions.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What's also interesting is the drop in support for social conservative candidates. Social conservative voters were key in both 2017 and 2022, and their preferences helped elect both Scheer and O'Toole.

2017: 16% (Lemieux+Trost)
2020: 25% (Lewis)
2022: 10% (Lewis)

I suppose some of that is due to the party signing up new memberships of more disenfranchised types who are less likely to be socially conservative. Social conservatives may have also been turned off from participating in the party because they didn't get anything in return from supporting O'Toole and Scheer.

Or they just supported PP because as the 'consensus candidate' it was his race to lose. Same with the PC types from further up. Like there comes a point where a candidate is just that popular within his lane that all types of voters in all types of factions support them, with the exception of the most radical parts of those factions.

Yah my guess is they backed PP this time around

[omar04]

So how authentic is PP's populism to Canadians? His anti elite rhetoric comes off a bit hypocritical for a career politician.

[mileslunn]

So how authentic is PP's populism to Canadians? His anti elite rhetoric comes off a bit hypocritical for a career politician.

That is a good question.  I think Poilievre is a real wild card.  He is more a populist in tea party mold or a populist version of Reagan/Thatcher or here in Canada Mike Harris/Ralph Klein.  Otherwise very much your small government type.  Generally Canadians have been weary of small government conservatism but possible with how bad a job government doing at so many things, this message will work.  He is a high risk high reward type.  In that he could do something many thought was not possible and permanently re-align politics like Reagan and Thatcher did.  On other hand possible he flops badly and creates a situation where Conservatives need to get used to losing as gap between their supporters and rest too hard to bridge.  We won't know until next election.