2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Charest is really going after Poilievre for his support of the blockade, going so far as to say he should be disqualified from running.

To put everything on the table, no, I didn't support the blockade. I was defensive of the truckers' right to protest, and I thought a lot of the rhetoric and coverage was unfair to them, but at some point the protest turned into an occupation and it had to be cleared. I didn't like that Poilievre kept supporting them even after his party had officially revoked its support, and polls suggest that CPC supporters were pretty evenly split on their opinions of the protest.

Charest wants to appeal to the anti-blockade wing of the party, and of course his strategy all along has been to attract the ever-elusive blue liberals. But I really question how Charest plans to unite this party, should he win. He won't steamroll Poilievre, I think we can safely say that. It will be a slog, and a big chunk of the party will be disappointed, if not aggravated, that a Tory as red as Jean Charest will lead them into the next election.

In my observation, I think it's much more likely that the reds would forgive Poilievre for supporting the blockade, than for the true blues to forgive Charest for coming out so fiercely against it (along with his support for carbon pricing, gun control, etc). And divided parties don't win elections. I think this should be a real concern for CPC members and those interested in buying a membership to vote in the election, myself included.

[Poirot]

A Charest win would cause revolt of the base. Charest needs new members to do well. Poilievre seems to be the party's choice, maybe a bit more libertarian but the party is the same, vulnerable about environment, gun control.

I'm intrigued of what the people who wanted to find a candidate as an alternative to Poilievre do if he wins. Do they stay or are really uncomfortable with Poilievre and leave.

[brucejoel99]

A Charest win would cause revolt of the base. Charest needs new members to do well. Poilievre seems to be the party's choice, maybe a bit more libertarian but the party is the same, vulnerable about environment, gun control.

I'm intrigued of what the people who wanted to find a candidate as an alternative to Poilievre do if he wins. Do they stay or are really uncomfortable with Poilievre and leave.

There's a reason that some moderate Conservatives have already begun to leave the CPC: they're already feeling drowned out, sick of the far-right being the loudest voice in the room, leaving them so desperate for a representation of their views that they miss the PCs... so you can see where there this may be headed: the party splitting again just like it did last time, along the extremist-right & center-right moderate lines, if only because it may inevitably have to since, if Poilievre wins, there'll presumably be an inevitable moment that serves as the straw that broke the back of a camel that's a tent that's somehow both too big as it currently stands yet is unable to appeal to a majority of the center.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A Charest win would cause revolt of the base. Charest needs new members to do well. Poilievre seems to be the party's choice, maybe a bit more libertarian but the party is the same, vulnerable about environment, gun control.

I'm intrigued of what the people who wanted to find a candidate as an alternative to Poilievre do if he wins. Do they stay or are really uncomfortable with Poilievre and leave.

There's a reason that some moderate Conservatives have already begun to leave the CPC

Who? I can't think of any notable Conservative politician or personality who has left the party in recent years for this reason. If anything, the more prominent viewpoint within the party seems to be that O'Toole took the party too far to the left.

[Hatman 🍁]

You guys might like this (from our Omnibus poll)

Approval of world leaders by supporters of each candidate

Biden
Charest 62-33
Brown 53-34
Lewis 21-74
Poilievre 17-79

Boris Johnson
Brown 59-24
Charest 56-27
Lewis 52-21
Poilievre 50-27

Putin
Poilievre 6-88
Charest 2-97
Lewis 1-94
Brown 1-95

Zelenskyy
Charest 95-4
Brown 90-5
Lewis 82-7
Poilievre 68-20

Macron
Charest 67-12
Brown 60-12
Poilievre 28-40
Lewis 27-31

Modi
Poilievre 21-21
Brown 19-28 (maybe due to being mayor of Brampton?)
Charest 16-31
Lewis 14-26

Xi
Charest 7-80 (lol, Mr. Huawei)
Brown 5-73
Poilievre 3-82
Lewis 1-82

Jacinda Ardern
Brown 59-12
Charest 56-14
Lewis 32-37
Poilievre 26-44

MBS
Brown 7-52
Lewis 7-53
Poilievre 6-52
Charest 3-63

Bolsonaro
Poilievre 11-31
Lewis 8-26
Brown 8-38
Charest 6-54

Queen Elizabeth II
Charest 78-10
Brown 76-13
Lewis 75-10
Poilievre 66-16

Pope Francis
Charest 51-24
Brown 44-34
Lewis 32-41
Poilievre 30-39

[RogueBeaver]

3 debates will be held next month.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

You guys might like this (from our Omnibus poll)

Approval of world leaders by supporters of each candidate

Biden
Charest 62-33
Brown 53-34
Lewis 21-74
Poilievre 17-79

Boris Johnson
Brown 59-24
Charest 56-27
Lewis 52-21
Poilievre 50-27

Putin
Poilievre 6-88
Charest 2-97
Lewis 1-94
Brown 1-95

Zelenskyy
Charest 95-4
Brown 90-5
Lewis 82-7
Poilievre 68-20

Macron
Charest 67-12
Brown 60-12
Poilievre 28-40
Lewis 27-31

Modi
Poilievre 21-21
Brown 19-28 (maybe due to being mayor of Brampton?)
Charest 16-31
Lewis 14-26

Xi
Charest 7-80 (lol, Mr. Huawei)
Brown 5-73
Poilievre 3-82
Lewis 1-82

Jacinda Ardern
Brown 59-12
Charest 56-14
Lewis 32-37
Poilievre 26-44

MBS
Brown 7-52
Lewis 7-53
Poilievre 6-52
Charest 3-63

Bolsonaro
Poilievre 11-31
Lewis 8-26
Brown 8-38
Charest 6-54

Queen Elizabeth II
Charest 78-10
Brown 76-13
Lewis 75-10
Poilievre 66-16

Pope Francis
Charest 51-24
Brown 44-34
Lewis 32-41
Poilievre 30-39

Interesting how Poilievre supporters are the most anti-monarchy out of the candidates.

[Benjamin Frank]

Per wiki, 74 Conservative M.Ps have endorsed a candidate.  This excludes the 4 M.Ps who are running for the leadership.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_2022_Conservative_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election

In addition to these 4 M.P leadership candidates , I know and/or assume these M.Ps can't endorse: the Interim Leader (Candice Bergen), the Deputy Leader (Luc Berthold), the Caucus Chair and the Chief Whip.  I presume Erin O'Toole will also not endorse anybody.

Does anybody know if any other M.Ps are not able to endorse a candidate, like the Deputy Caucus Chair or the Deputy Whip or any of the M.P provincial caucus chairs?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

You guys might like this (from our Omnibus poll)

Approval of world leaders by supporters of each candidate

Biden
Charest 62-33
Brown 53-34
Lewis 21-74
Poilievre 17-79

Boris Johnson
Brown 59-24
Charest 56-27
Lewis 52-21
Poilievre 50-27

Putin
Poilievre 6-88
Charest 2-97
Lewis 1-94
Brown 1-95

Zelenskyy
Charest 95-4
Brown 90-5
Lewis 82-7
Poilievre 68-20

Macron
Charest 67-12
Brown 60-12
Poilievre 28-40
Lewis 27-31

Modi
Poilievre 21-21
Brown 19-28 (maybe due to being mayor of Brampton?)
Charest 16-31
Lewis 14-26

Xi
Charest 7-80 (lol, Mr. Huawei)
Brown 5-73
Poilievre 3-82
Lewis 1-82

Jacinda Ardern
Brown 59-12
Charest 56-14
Lewis 32-37
Poilievre 26-44

MBS
Brown 7-52
Lewis 7-53
Poilievre 6-52
Charest 3-63

Bolsonaro
Poilievre 11-31
Lewis 8-26
Brown 8-38
Charest 6-54

Queen Elizabeth II
Charest 78-10
Brown 76-13
Lewis 75-10
Poilievre 66-16

Pope Francis
Charest 51-24
Brown 44-34
Lewis 32-41
Poilievre 30-39

Would have been interesting to see how Trump does, even though he's no longer President. IIRC support for Biden vs Trump was pretty evenly split among CPC supporters, with a slight lean towards Biden.

[Poirot]

A Charest win would cause revolt of the base. Charest needs new members to do well. Poilievre seems to be the party's choice, maybe a bit more libertarian but the party is the same, vulnerable about environment, gun control.

I'm intrigued of what the people who wanted to find a candidate as an alternative to Poilievre do if he wins. Do they stay or are really uncomfortable with Poilievre and leave.

There's a reason that some moderate Conservatives have already begun to leave the CPC: they're already feeling drowned out, sick of the far-right being the loudest voice in the room, leaving them so desperate for a representation of their views that they miss the PCs... so you can see where there this may be headed: the party splitting again just like it did last time, along the extremist-right & center-right moderate lines, if only because it may inevitably have to since, if Poilievre wins, there'll presumably be an inevitable moment that serves as the straw that broke the back of a camel that's a tent that's somehow both too big as it currently stands yet is unable to appeal to a majority of the center.

I don't know if there can be a big split since the moderates seem to be in the minority. Charest said on tv the choice is doing US style politics, attack politics and division or doing politics like we have done in Canada. I don't know if he speaks for many who don't want to be part of that. I only remember MP Joel Godin state he would have to think of his future.

[adma]

Interesting how Poilievre supporters are the most anti-monarchy out of the candidates.

Probably because he's cornered the Bitcoin-libertarian whiz kids. He's like a less off-the-deep-end version of pre-PPC Max Bernier in that light.

[mileslunn]

Interesting on Boris Johnson how approval is same across board whereas for Biden, Macron, and Ardern you can clearly see difference between moderates and more right wing.  My guess is most poilievre and Lewis supporters who disapprove of Johnson think he is insufficiently conservative whereas most Brown and Charest think he is too conservative or just buffoonish.  And sort of makes sense as he is on the right, but not as right as Poilievre or Lewis.

[King of Kensington]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If anyone hasn't seen the CTV panel with Jenni Byrne and Tasha Kheiriddin last night (managers of the Poilievre and Charest camps respectively), here's the link. It's definitely worth a watch, not that there was much substance to the panel which informally turned into a debate, but just for entertainment value. Things got...heated.

If this is the tone of debate between campaign surrogates this early on, the actual candidate debates could turn downright nasty.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government. 

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

[Oryxslayer]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government. 

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

If anything, I think Poillievre's campaign demonstrates that he knows his reputation/personality/history alone will bring back enough of the PPC to negate their meaningfulness, and is therefore trying to test things that might have wider appeal without contradicting that history. Essentially a case of imaging and "vibes" doing all the lifting red meat planks that others would need. This of course won't really show up in the internal election:  it's a contest of devout and loyal deciding which candidate is closest to them on narrow spectrums, and Poillievre appears to have a majority (on the right) of this spectrum sown up based on polls.

[MaxQue]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government. 

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

I don't think Poilievre exhibited thinking at any in his House career, through.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government. 

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

I don't think Poilievre exhibited thinking at any in his House career, through.

He's a shameless hack, yes, but that isn't to say that he's not politically astute.

[DC Al Fine]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government. 

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

Again, I dispute these bizarre characterizations of Poillievre's campaign strategy.

The big message he's been pushing the past several days is basically "progressive gatekeepers are stopping homes from being built. I will remove the gatekeepers blocking new supply"

Heck a few days ago he tweeted:

"Highly skilled new Canadians want to earn bigger paycheques & do the jobs they're trained for. Remove gatekeepers that block them. Give Canada more doctors, engineers & skilled professionals."

Put it wherever you want on the political spectrum, but it's definitely not targeted at Bernier's voters in Portage-Lisgar or Timmins-James Bay.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government.  

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

Again, I dispute these bizarre characterizations of Poillievre's campaign strategy.

The big message he's been pushing the past several days is basically "progressive gatekeepers are stopping homes from being built. I will remove the gatekeepers blocking new supply"

Heck a few days ago he tweeted:

"Highly skilled new Canadians want to earn bigger paycheques & do the jobs they're trained for. Remove gatekeepers that block them. Give Canada more doctors, engineers & skilled professionals."

Put it wherever you want on the political spectrum, but it's definitely not targeted at Bernier's voters in Portage-Lisgar or Timmins-James Bay.

Poilievre just might be the Conservative Trudeau, insofar as how he inspires white-hot rage from his opponents that blinds the ability to look at him objectively. The campaign Poilievre is trying to run, at least when it comes to first impressions, resonates with a large group of people, and not just far-right PPC supporters or hicks from rural Alberta or whatever. His basic message, overly simplistic as it may be, goes beyond the standard fare of Conservative politicians in this country.

People have long argued that the Tories need to shut up about niche issues that nobody outside the CPC base cares about, and start talking about pocketbook issues that expand the base. That's exactly what Poilievre is doing, but he's taking a different route than the consensus of our commentariat that Canadians will only vote for Blue Grits and Red Tories

[Oryxslayer]

Poilievre's pry back the PPC vote strategy only exacerbates the map problem.  The Conservatives need to be much more competitive in Liberal-dominated metropolitan Canada to form government.  

I don't think Poilievre or his inside circle are naive enough to genuinely believe that this is all they need to do.

Again, I dispute these bizarre characterizations of Poillievre's campaign strategy.

The big message he's been pushing the past several days is basically "progressive gatekeepers are stopping homes from being built. I will remove the gatekeepers blocking new supply"

Heck a few days ago he tweeted:

"Highly skilled new Canadians want to earn bigger paycheques & do the jobs they're trained for. Remove gatekeepers that block them. Give Canada more doctors, engineers & skilled professionals."

Put it wherever you want on the political spectrum, but it's definitely not targeted at Bernier's voters in Portage-Lisgar or Timmins-James Bay.

Poilievre just might be the Conservative Trudeau, insofar as how he inspires white-hot rage from his opponents that blinds the ability to look at him objectively. The campaign Poilievre is trying to run, at least when it comes to first impressions, resonates with a large group of people, and not just far-right PPC supporters or hicks from rural Alberta or whatever. His basic message, overly simplistic as it may be, goes beyond the standard fare of Conservative politicians in this country.

People have long argued that the Tories need to shut up about niche issues that nobody outside the CPC base cares about, and start talking about pocketbook issues that expand the base. That's exactly what Poilievre is doing, but he's taking a different route than the consensus of our commentariat that Canadians will only vote for Blue Grits and Red Tories

Like I said above, maybe it's because I'm not Canadian and can look at him without seeing evil, but I agree this is correct. And I believe the only reason he can do this is cause his vibes/personality are harmonious with the base that usually forces CPC candidate to make all sorts of stupid promises.

On another note, Further polling that says PP might win round 1:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1514264268044132357?s=20&t=hpFPnC...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1514265043919163398?s=20&t=hpFPnC...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

his vibes/personality are harmonious with the base that usually forces CPC candidate to make all sorts of stupid promises.

This is an excellent point, and an underrated strength of Poilievre. O'Toole had to prove his conservative chops by parading himself as a "true blue conservative", something that in hindsight he really wasn't. By the end of his tenure, it seemed like O'Toole and his team were in a state of internal turmoil over what to stand for. Poilievre doesn't have to do this, because he already has credibility with the base. He doesn't have to prove himself. This gives him the political capital to campaign on issues with a broader appeal, like cost of living and inflation, in addition to micro-targetting groups outside the base like Bitcoin bros. The base already trusts him, and he's trying to bring new people amenable to his views into the party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-on-scott-aitchison

Not sure how much one John Ivison column helps Aitchison, but I'm glad I'm not the only one who's noticed him. Not quite ready to lead a federal party, but I hope he makes it on the ballot, if to no end other than to increase his profile.

[DC Al Fine]

I went to Leslyn Lewis's speech in Halifax tonight. She got a better turnout than I expected (and much better than Charest did when he came here). Was quite impressed.

Not at all related to her politics, but she's also much taller than I expected

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I went to Leslyn Lewis's speech in Halifax tonight. She got a better turnout than I expected (and much better than Charest did when he came here). Was quite impressed.

Not at all related to her politics, but she's also much taller than I expected

It's pretty impressive that she's a rookie MP and was a complete nobody until about two years ago, and has now basically asserted herself as the de facto leader of the CPC's so-con wing.