NV Gov OH Predictive Insights: Sisolak 52.2 Lombardo 47.8; Sisolak 54.4 Heller 45.6

[Minnesota Mike]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-sisolak-leads-governor-candidates-lombardo-tops-gop-field

The results of the poll, conducted from Jan. 19-26, show Sisolak in the lead over two possible Republican challengers, including a 4.4-point lead over Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (52.2 percent to 47.8 percent), just outside of the poll’s 3.6 percent margin of error, and a nearly 9-point advantage against former U.S. Sen. Dean Heller (54.4 percent to 45.6 percent).

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada Gov GOP Primary.

Lombardo 28%
Heller 9%
Fiore 8%
Gilbert 7%
Lee 5%
Simon 2%
Nohra 1%
Unsure 36%

[Minnesota Mike]

Sorry, meant to post this in the polls section.

[Roll Roons]

That is a terrible showing for Heller. Wonder why he's doing so poorly.

Are they also polling the Senate race?

[Minnesota Mike]

That is a terrible showing for Heller. Wonder why he's doing so poorly.

Are they also polling the Senate race?

Senate poll out tomorrow.

[S019]

Well I’d be very surprised if this was true, Sisolak seems like the worst type of politician to run in a midterm election, where he needs base turnout. Perhpas “Titanium Tilt D Nevada” is actually a thing after all, though (more likely) this is an outlier.

[Xing]

>Decimals

Either way, even I'll admit that this looks way too rosy for Sisolak, but the idea that Democrats couldn't hold NV even in a tough environment just because muh 2020 R trend is silly.

[Duke of York]

wow much better than i expected.

[THG]

Heller should frankly drop out at this point. Lombardo is the stronger candidate in every respect.

However, I do believe that the D+5 sample size of this poll might make it look better for Sisolak than it is in reality.

[Roll Roons]

Why is Heller doing so badly anyway? Especially given his name recognition.

[Sir Mohamed]

Why is Heller doing so badly anyway? Especially given his name recognition.

Perhaps because he's a not Trumpy enough for the Trump base, but too Trumpy for swing voters? And Sisolak seems to be solid incumbent.

Additionally, his previous performances weren't that great either. He barely won in 2012 with 45% of the vote against a flawed Dem candidate.

(Would be nice for a moderator to move this thread into the subboard)

[MATTROSE94]

Interesting. Perhaps Steve Sisolak survives after all. He seems to be a generic Democrat and hasn’t done anything controversial as Governor other than implement strict COVID NPIs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much R trending NV, MT Treasurer was so sure Siskock and CCM were Doomed

[Fetterman my beloved]

That is a terrible showing for Heller. Wonder why he's doing so poorly.

Are they also polling the Senate race?

Advocating for a Texas style abortion law in an even partisan lean state probably doesn't help too much.

[MT Treasurer]

This pollster also had Cortez Masto ahead by 9 and Kelly leading by 4. We’ve reached a point where polling doesn’t serve any purpose besides placating Democrats and reassuring them that the advantage/narrative is still on their side. I, for one, am bracing for the Democratic wave that is about to hit shore according to state-level polling, YouGov, etc.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This pollster also had Cortez Masto ahead by 9 and Kelly leading by 4. We’ve reached a point where polling doesn’t serve any purpose besides placating Democrats and reassuring them that the advantage/narrative is still on their side. I, for one, am bracing for the Democratic wave that is about to hit shore according to state-level polling, YouGov, etc.

MT treasurer is a calming presence because without him, I’d be concerned that literally nobody in the world is noticing that pollsters continue to knowingly misrepresent the American electorate

[PSOL]

Sisolak is going down

[MT Treasurer]

This pollster also had Cortez Masto ahead by 9 and Kelly leading by 4. We’ve reached a point where polling doesn’t serve any purpose besides placating Democrats and reassuring them that the advantage/narrative is still on their side. I, for one, am bracing for the Democratic wave that is about to hit shore according to state-level polling, YouGov, etc.

MT treasurer is a calming presence because without him, I’d be concerned that literally nobody in the world is noticing that pollsters continue to knowingly misrepresent the American electorate

FTR, I said the same thing about that Hogan +12 poll in MD or whatever or those NH polls showing Sununu beating Hassan by a blowout margin at a time when Democrats were holding up well in the GCB. Ironically, I also warned people not to take NV polls showing Heller ahead in 2018 (even as Republicans were supposedly trailing everywhere else, including IN/MO) too seriously. I get that margin can be deceptive in polling and that it’s usually better to look at the candidates' %-ages of support, but even with that in mind (and it doesn’t explain Sisolak being above 50%, other vulnerable swing state Democrats being so close to 50% already, etc. — besides, undecideds never break 100% for one party), it’s very clear that there are serious issues with the polling and prognosticating industry which remain unresolved. All I’m saying is that it’s better to go with state fundamentals, common sense, and "the big picture" rather than relying on polling and your subjective and often arbitrary impressions of candidate quality, even when it’s tempting to do so because it reinforces your desired narrative. It’s not always a foolproof method and there are rare exceptions/races which can buck the trend (e.g. FL-SEN 2018, although the indicators were still fairly mixed here), but evaluating individual races against a list like this can be very fruitful:

*How do I think a generic R vs. generic D election in this particular state/district would turn out in a friendly environment for party x?
*Is the D / R candidate uniquely flawed (i.e., obvious scandals/no actual campaign/serious flaws in candidate's messaging and not bad make-up or haircut/speaking skills/'extreme' ideology/'partisan voting record')?
*Does one of the candidates enjoy long-lasting and overwhelming levels of popularity which transcend partisanship and have been virtually unaffected by negative campaigns in the past or present?
*Does one of the candidates have a conspicuous history of defying red or blue state partisanship even in an unfavorable election cycle and/or a repeated history of making impressive comebacks after trailing badly in pre-election polling for much of the campaign, mostly due to an unusually aggressive campaigning style? (the former did apply to Susan Collins [2008], the latter to Rick Scott [2010, 2014])
-> If NO / NO / NO on the last three questions, what reasons are there for me to deviate significantly from my generic R vs. generic D estimate? (most likely, there aren’t any plausible reasons, only my "gut feeling" and memes)

If the above reveals a more mixed picture or my estimate has the race as too close to call, go on with this:

*Does said state contain a significant portion of a voting/demographic group with which Republicans/Democrats have been making inroads recently or in years more favorable to them? (e.g. secular small-town/rural white voters swung strongly Republican in 2016, college-educated and affluent suburbanites swung strongly Democratic in 2018, etc.) [this would identify NH-SEN 2022 as a winnable state for the GOP in spite of its D lean, it probably also would have identified FL-SEN 2018 as winnable in spite of the D wave if there had been a high-profile election in a Cuban district in 2018)
*Are the D / R base areas in said state maxed out or very close to maxed out and are there no to very few D-trending / R-trending areas left to counteract that? [this would identify GA as a winnable state for Democrats in spite of the environment]

If you’re still unsure which side to pick or even unsure about the environment in general, continue with this:

*Polling is contradictory and does not point to an environment which favors either party, so have recent high-profile elections been just as mixed or painted a clearer picture (not only in terms of margin change since the last presidential race but also in terms of turnout patterns/base enthusiasm)? [these indicators would currently suggest a heavily Republican environment]
*Polling is contradictory and does not point to an environment which favors either party, so have there been any noticeable patterns in retirements, fundraising, social media, and presidential approval which paint a clearer picture that favors one party? [these indicators would also suggest a clear Republican advantage]

You can add one or two to these, but it’s very helpful and basically works in >95% of cases.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV do you k ow is a D state because Hillary lost the EC College and won NV in 2016


It's not a red wave yet we have 8 mnths till the Election anyways and it's VBM the rural vote is gonna be counted first abd urban vote last all these states aren't gonna be counted on Election night especially the Senate, I don't know about the H it could go R but not 60 seats maybe 10 and the Senate is gonna be so close Johnson isn't safe he only won by 200 K votes that's not Safe

Hogan hasn't announced anything yet do I don't know wh y users keep commenting on the Hogan poll it's very unlikely he runs since Steele is out of the race and Tom Perez is gonna win the Gov, Hogan isn't beating Van Hollen with Tom Perez

[Pollster]

I get that margin can be deceptive in polling and that it’s usually better to look at the candidates' %-ages of support, but even with that in mind (and it doesn’t explain Sisolak being above 50%, other vulnerable swing state Democrats being so close to 50% already, etc. — besides, undecideds never break 100% for one party), it’s very clear that there are serious issues with the polling and prognosticating industry which remain unresolved.

Looks like the problem here was that the pollster forced undecideds to choose a candidate (which eliminates genuine undecided voters from the survey) so whoever is leading is naturally going to be over 50%. Bad methodology, part of the reason there's so much distrust, public pollsters tend to not know what they're doing, etc etc

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polling industry was wrong on IA, OH, TX and NC it wasn't wrong on the 304/234 map that where Rs don't understand and the overall climate hasn't changed much since 2020

www.Electionprojection.com which isn't running anymore has had it a 304((234 map in 2020 Anyways