FL-USA Today/Suffolk: Rubio + 8

[2016]

Marco Rubio (R, Incumbent) 49
Val Demings (D) 41

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/01/poll-biden-struggling-florida-2024/9282357002/

Among Voters who know both Candidates Demings leads Rubio 51-42.

Biden JA
Approve 39
Disapprove 53

[ajc0918]

Actually among those who know both candidates, Demings leads Rubio by 51%-42%.

I think you got it backward.

[2016]

Actually among those who know both candidates, Demings leads Rubio by 51%-42%.

I think you got it backward.

That must be a very small subsample then. Rubio at 49 bodes well for him. This Poll looks more in line where D's overperform Biden by a small amount but not by that huge chuck we saw in the GA Polls last week.

Given the Republicans own a 60K Registration Edge that is likely going to grow I feel confident of Florida staying RED.

[ajc0918]

Actually among those who know both candidates, Demings leads Rubio by 51%-42%.

I think you got it backward.

Given the Republicans own a 60K Registration Edge that is likely going to grow I feel confident of Florida staying RED.

Registration edge is notable but the Dems registration advantage was always inflated given the number of registered Dems who always voted Republican.

I think it will be interesting to see how the Dems vote by mail advantage factors into turnout. All of the 2020 VBM requests are valid through 2022 so many more Democratic voters statewide will be receiving mail ballots. That could help boost turnout among Dems groups who vote more sporadically. That being said the GOP GOTV operation is always impressive.

[2016]

Actually among those who know both candidates, Demings leads Rubio by 51%-42%.

I think you got it backward.

Given the Republicans own a 60K Registration Edge that is likely going to grow I feel confident of Florida staying RED.

Registration edge is notable but the Dems registration advantage was always inflated given the number of registered Dems who always voted Republican.

I think it will be interesting to see how the Dems vote by mail advantage factors into turnout. All of the 2020 VBM requests are valid through 2022 so many more Democratic voters statewide will be receiving mail ballots. That could help boost turnout among Dems groups who vote more sporadically. That being said the GOP GOTV operation is always impressive.

Do you really think we have a large chunk of VBM in FL this year? I am not so sure about that given the State faces less restrictions this year compared to 2020 when we had no Vaccines. I think at least in FL Voters will go back to a normal voting pattern.

All the VBM Vote in 2020 did not help Biden. Democrats got crushed in the early In-Person Vote and on E-Day.

DeSantis faced a 80K Deficit heading into E-Day in 2018 and turned that into an 30K Win.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Actually among those who know both candidates, Demings leads Rubio by 51%-42%.

I think you got it backward.

That must be a very small subsample then. Rubio at 49 bodes well for him. This Poll looks more in line where D's overperform Biden by a small amount but not by that huge chuck we saw in the GA Polls last week.

Given the Republicans own a 60K Registration Edge that is likely going to grow I feel confident of Florida staying RED.

Agreed I’m going to guess liberals know Rubio more than conservatives know Demings? I’m not sure what else explains it given the overall result. Other good news from that poll id DeSantis up 52-44 on Biden!

[beesley]

A small bit of proof that despite months of coverage, Demings doesn't add anything to the ticket compared to other reasonable candidates.

[wbrocks67]

A small bit of proof that despite months of coverage, Demings doesn't add anything to the ticket compared to other reasonable candidates.

I actually disagree, Rubio is popular, so if this was anyone else they'd probably be underwater by double digits. Even in a prez year, Murphy still lost by 8, so in an R-leaning environment, a generic D would probably be down like 12 or 13.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL has a Cuban Embargo and it's a no state income tax states that's whyRs excel in FL

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Crosstabs here: https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2022/02_01_2022_tables.pdf

2022 Polling TL;DR (for both congressional and gubernatorial)-
"Better off than 4 years ago" = D-leaning. "Worse off" or "No difference" = R-leaning.