Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District has an open seat

[Blue3]

Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District has an open seat. Overall, it's the slightly more moderate of the two congressional districts.

Representative Langevin is retiring after 22 years, the first quadriplegic to serve in Congress. He was rather quiet and noncontroversial.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Congressman_Jim_Langevin_%28D-RI%29.jpg/1920px-Congressman_Jim_Langevin_%28D-RI%29.jpg

Seth Magaziner (D), who's the current State Treasurer and former teacher was fundraising the most in the 2022 gubernatorial race, has switched to the congressional race. Our popular, outgoing Director of the RI Department of Health, Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott, who was the consistent soothing presence throughout the pandemic, might also be considering.

Many many other names are also considering, including former Mayor Fung, a Republican who lost the governor race to Gina Raimondo twice.

We don't really vote out incumbents, so this race is getting a lot of attention here.

[CookieDamage]

Your last map is implying that Trump won the 2nd district, which he certainly did not.

The 2nd district is probably gonna be redrawn to be more D friendly.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Your last map is implying that Trump won the 2nd district, which he certainly did not.

The 2nd district is probably gonna be redrawn to be more D friendly.

That map is just the results from 2016 by township, not a congressional map

[NerdyBohemian]

Your last map is implying that Trump won the 2nd district, which he certainly did not.

The 2nd district is probably gonna be redrawn to be more D friendly.

Yeah there’s more people that live in just Warwick and Cranston then all those towns on the western border combined. That’s not even counting the parts of Providence included in the 2nd congressional district.

[Senator Incitatus]

It is interesting that Clinton won every coastal town, and Trump won every non-coastal town

I count six towns Clinton won that are not coastal, even counting the Providence River as a coast.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It is interesting that Clinton won every coastal town, and Trump won every non-coastal town

I count six towns Clinton won that are not coastal, even counting the Providence River as a coast.

6? I counted four (Woonsocket, Central Falls, Cumberland, North Providence)

[Sol]

That said, I do believe it's actually possible to draw a Republican-leaning version of this seat, not that that's what the state is going to do--they'll probably just split Providence again.

[lfromnj]

That said, I do believe it's actually possible to draw a Republican-leaning version of this seat, not that that's what the state is going to do--they'll probably just split Providence again.

I mean you can barely get a Trump 2016 district if that's what you mean but that would still split the Providence metro.

[Sol]

That said, I do believe it's actually possible to draw a Republican-leaning version of this seat, not that that's what the state is going to do--they'll probably just split Providence again.

I mean you can barely get a Trump 2016 district if that's what you mean but that would still split the Providence metro.

Tbh I think you basically have to split the Providence metro no matter what--the whole state is the metro to some extent, and the only place that works to cut it in half is around the city.


link

I guess Republican-leaning is a bit strong--but this would probably be the most winnable seat for Republicans in New England outside of ME/NH.

[NerdyBohemian]

It is interesting that Clinton won every coastal town, and Trump won every non-coastal town

I count six towns Clinton won that are not coastal, even counting the Providence River as a coast.

6? I counted four (Woonsocket, Central Falls, Cumberland, North Providence)

Pawtucket isn’t coastal. East Greenwich might have a small piece of coastal land but I’m not entirely sure. Providence is on a river not the ocean.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1492206196341760007?t=MJH7S_3-D8j15xBJGpUPXw&...

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1492206196341760007?t=MJH7S_3-D8j15xBJGpUPXw&...

Dems really need to make this seat a little more Dem in redistricting just as a precaution.  Maybe move from 56% Biden to 58% Biden.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

[coloradocowboi]

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

[Figueira]

Yeah, this seat isn't flipping. Republicans winning the Dem vote sink in New Hampshire is more likely than them winning here.

[S019]

Yeah, this seat isn't flipping. Republicans winning the Dem vote sink in New Hampshire is more likely than them winning here.

I wouldn't rule it out, this seat was only Clinton+7, and the national environment is toxic for Democrats.

[Figueira]

Yeah, this seat isn't flipping. Republicans winning the Dem vote sink in New Hampshire is more likely than them winning here.

I wouldn't rule it out, this seat was only Clinton+7, and the national environment is toxic for Democrats.

OK, that's closer than I thought, so I guess it's not 100%. However, Biden won it by 14, so it's still a longshot. If it flipped it would be quite a surprise.

[Blue3]

New map almost finalized:

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/15/new-ri-maps-general-assembly-approves-political-boundaries/6698434001/

Some controversy on the process:

State lawmakers Tuesday set the playing field for the next decade of Rhode Island elections — including their own — by finalizing new General Assembly and congressional district maps.

The new maps, like the old ones, were drawn by the legislature's long-time consultant, and observers of the once-a-decade redistricting warned that incumbent protection appeared to drive a lot of the decisions.

But House and Senate leaders said the six-month process involving 18 public meetings and maps posted online was historic in its transparency.

In the end, the new maps passed 58 to 8 in the House and 29 to 9 in the Senate. They now go to Gov. Dan McKee to sign into law.

Was it unconstitutional? Lawmakers made the redistricting commission follow the Open Meetings Act.

But also:

Surprising some political watchers, ruling Democrats didn't make major map changes to protect the state's Second Congressional District from a GOP takeover attempt, even after incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Langevin announced he would not run for reelection.

In the last redistricting a decade ago, the Assembly shifted tens of thousands of Democratic voters from the second district into the first district, benefitting Rep. David Cicilline, who was facing his first reelection campaign.

The maps approved Tuesday do not move any municipalities into another district, but shift about 8,000 residents of Providence residents, which is shared by the two districts, back to District 2.

Rep. Barbara Ann Fenton-Fung, who is married to GOP congressional candidate Allan Fung, thanked House Speaker K. Joseph Shekarchi for not trying to tilt the playing field.

Other interesting stuff in the article.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's not impossible that Rs win this seat but it's not part of their core path.

If they're coming remotely close Dems are likely already in the deep House minority, and they are very likely to win it back in 2022.

[Blue3]

It's about the primaries even more than the Republican.

Progressive activist David Segal, who ran for Kennedy's seat, Cicilline beat him in that primary narrowly for his first term, is now considering a run for this seat.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Allan Fung indicated that he would run for this seat nearly 2 months ago, but hasn't officially launched his campaign. If he is the nominee he can make a serious play at the seat, especially since there aren't many high profile Democrats in the race (the only one with even a little bit of name recognition is state Treasurer Seth Magaziner, who isn't exactly exciting).

Another serious GOP candidate - probably one of the best GOP recruits along with Fung for a congressional seat in RI in over a decade - is state Sen. Jessica de la Cruz. She represents Burrillville, Glocester, and part of North Smithfield in the state senate. Burrillville and Glocester are in RI-02 and are trending Republican more rapidly than just about any other part of the state - rural AND wwc. de la Cruz lives in North Smithfield, however, which is in RI-01. So she would technically be carpetbagging in terms of residence although she does represent part of RI-02 in the state senate. Either way, she os running an active campaign and it is clear there is more money and organization compared to previous GOP congressional runs in RI. She also is a young Portuguese woman, definitely a different background. She is one to watch for sure.

Overall this is a Likely D race, closer to Lean than Safe. GOP has better candidates, more enthusiasm, better national environment - but this district is still probably just a little bit too blue to overcome this, barring an R+7-10 national environment or so. Without the large chunk of Providence in the district, it would be close to Tossup territory.

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are solidly Democratic, the kinds of seats that have a chance at flipping only in a massive, massive wave of epic proportions (all but MA09 gave Biden north of 61%, and even MA09 was Biden+18). Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.

I don't know about the other states but this is 100% true in MA.