In what states does current growth and demographic changes favor Republicans?

[cvparty]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought

No, people tend to overestimate how much one area can move the margin—this only works if its share of the overall population is similar to Metro Atlanta or the Twin Cities.

Even if you apply the most generous, preposterous scenario and shift each of Polk, Dallas and Story's margins 35% to the left without even touching the rest of the state, Trump still outright wins. Altogether, those three counties only cast about 20% of the state's votes, and it would take like half a century for it to even reach 1/3. Bliowa is impossible if rurals continue swinging right

[Skill and Chance]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought

No, people tend to overestimate how much one area can move the margin—this only works if its share of the overall population is similar to Metro Atlanta or the Twin Cities.

Even if you apply the most generous, preposterous scenario and shift each of Polk, Dallas and Story's margins 35% to the left without even touching the rest of the state, Trump still outright wins. Altogether, those three counties only cast about 20% of the state's votes, and it would take like half a century for it to even reach 1/3. Bliowa is impossible if rurals continue swinging right

Yes, this only works in select cases.  This is also why NC still hasn't flipped.

Applying the RGV trend to Clark County, NV though...

[Mr.Phips]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought

No, people tend to overestimate how much one area can move the margin—this only works if its share of the overall population is similar to Metro Atlanta or the Twin Cities.

Even if you apply the most generous, preposterous scenario and shift each of Polk, Dallas and Story's margins 35% to the left without even touching the rest of the state, Trump still outright wins. Altogether, those three counties only cast about 20% of the state's votes, and it would take like half a century for it to even reach 1/3. Bliowa is impossible if rurals continue swinging right

Yes, this only works in select cases.  This is also why NC still hasn't flipped.

Applying the RGV trend to Clark County, NV though...

Probably more likely to see a Miami Dade type trend there where it’s only voting low to mid single digits for Dems.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The entire Midwest, minus Minnesota and arguably Illinois. I think the next republican PV win will include really shocking performances in places like Erie, Mahoning/Loraine (obviously), Lake IN, Peoria IL, Muskegon, and Kenosha. First, the young and often diverse college educated crowds moving to Dallas or Atlanta have to be coming from somewhere, and often times they are the kids of college educated parents from the suburbs of stagnating midwestern cities. Second, many industrial midwestern cities are bleeding population and getting older/whiter as a result

Midwest is tricky because while a lot of these key Dem cities are bleeding, so are rural areas, often by greater amounts.

One midwestern state where shifts I'd say pretty objectively favor Rs is Wisconsin; rural areas have held up ok considering the bleeding we see in a lot of other states and Milwaukee's population loss, especially in the heavily black parts, have been brutal for Dems. While it is true Madison is growing, it's still relatively low population compared to Milwaukee metro.

I'd also put Ohio in this bucket. While it is true Columbus has done well, NE OH has just been bleeding, especially in the hearts of these key cities that used to be key to Dem victories. As for Cincinnati, a lot of it's growth is in suburbs or exurbs that still lean pretty heavily R. And outside of Appalachia, Ohio rural aren't terrible.

Michigan is prolly net even as while Detroit is shrinking, the communities immediately around it along with GR are the fastest growing parts of the state. Rural areas are shrinking, especially in the North. Dems MI strategy going forwards will have to be running up margins in a bunch of these smaller cities than just getting a huge win out of Wayne County.

Indiana is probably also even. The Northwest corner of Gary which used to be the biggest Democratic center of the state has lost population pretty rapidly, while Indianapolis which is now Dems main vote get is growing very well throughout.

Illinois is also prolly a wash as you stated.

Minnesota is defiantly good for Dems as twin cities is growing very fast

I'd say Pennsylvania is mostly good news for Dems as the rural parts of teh state are universally shrinking, and there's quite a clear growth line between rural Appalachia part of the state and SEPA. Main good news for Rs would be Pittsburg losses in teh Eastern half of the metro, especially around the black population, but the Western half is growing and become more divewrse so it kind of cancels itself out.

Iowa is one where growth is underrated good for Dems. Most of the growth is out of Des Moines, with a notable amount out of Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. Basically, all the rurals are shrinking. Iowa's hard R shift in the past decade was mostly because it was disproportionately hit by the Dem collapse of rural WWC rural voters. If hypothetically Democrats could keep rural margins to Biden levels, iowa could theoretically become competitive again at some point, though my suspicion is the rural areas will continue to get redder.

(https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=stateleglower&mapData=popchgpct1020&markerL=43.1968%2C-87.3647#map=5.32/42.665/-90.22), a good resource for analyzing population shifts by state LDs level. you can visually see a very clear border between SEPA and appalachia in PA.

While it’s true that midwestern rurals are shrinking as you said, I think there’s a distinction between population loss in rural areas and the population loss in industrial cities. The collapse of places like a Gary are directly cutting into Dem margins because many of the people leaving are minorities and/or union workers. My understanding is that the people leaving rural areas, however, are also more D-friendly than the average voter in these counties. This, combined with the shift in voting preferences of those remaining in the county, has caused R raw margins to remain stable or even increase in many rural counties over the last decade or so (anyone feel free to chime in if you think this premise is untrue).

I believe someone had posted about Missouri’s recent transformation from swing state to solid R state, and pointed out that notably the only 6-7 counties to actually grow during this span are Biden counties or D-trending counties while every solid Trump county was shrinking. Missouri still shifted because the voting trends moved quicker than the demographic trends. I think this applies to Iowa and Pennsylvania too where any additional hard rural shifts can outweigh growth in Dem areas like Des Moines and Philly suburbs. PA rurals might be close to maxed out however given that they’re already so much more red to begin with.

I will note that I should have stated that Indiana is not favorable to R’s but more neutral. R’s still get huge margins out of the Indy collar counties and it’s increasingly clear that won’t be the case forever, so this should offset some of the R gains in places like Vigo and Lake.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought

No, people tend to overestimate how much one area can move the margin—this only works if its share of the overall population is similar to Metro Atlanta or the Twin Cities.

Even if you apply the most generous, preposterous scenario and shift each of Polk, Dallas and Story's margins 35% to the left without even touching the rest of the state, Trump still outright wins. Altogether, those three counties only cast about 20% of the state's votes, and it would take like half a century for it to even reach 1/3. Bliowa is impossible if rurals continue swinging right

I agree with the first part, though I'd argue all 3 counties have a pretty big influence on the state. Currently, while they may only have been 20% of ballots cast, they are 27.4% of the total population. up from 25.3% just a decade ago, and this number will likely continue to rise a couple % per decade.

Polk County is actually not too far below Dane County in population (561k vs 492k), yet only netted Biden 40k votes in 2020 Pres vs Dane's 180k votes. The margin in Iowa was just under 140k votes, so hypothetically if Polk County had Dane County turnout levels and margins, Iowa would be extremely close, and likely have gone Dem since it's assumed the Dem would have done better in other urban areas too.

Will this happen? No. But if Dems were to run up a huge score in Polk, it could get interesting. I could see them breaking over 60% there at some point and maybe netting close to 100k votes. Also, remember as Iowa rurals pretty much universally shrink, they have less votes they need to overcome (though this is probably cancelled out by a continued rightwards shift).

[cvparty]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought

No, people tend to overestimate how much one area can move the margin—this only works if its share of the overall population is similar to Metro Atlanta or the Twin Cities.

Even if you apply the most generous, preposterous scenario and shift each of Polk, Dallas and Story's margins 35% to the left without even touching the rest of the state, Trump still outright wins. Altogether, those three counties only cast about 20% of the state's votes, and it would take like half a century for it to even reach 1/3. Bliowa is impossible if rurals continue swinging right

I agree with the first part, though I'd argue all 3 counties have a pretty big influence on the state. Currently, while they may only have been 20% of ballots cast, they are 27.4% of the total population. up from 25.3% just a decade ago, and this number will likely continue to rise a couple % per decade.

Polk County is actually not too far below Dane County in population (561k vs 492k), yet only netted Biden 40k votes in 2020 Pres vs Dane's 180k votes. The margin in Iowa was just under 140k votes, so hypothetically if Polk County had Dane County turnout levels and margins, Iowa would be extremely close, and likely have gone Dem since it's assumed the Dem would have done better in other urban areas too.

Will this happen? No. But if Dems were to run up a huge score in Polk, it could get interesting. I could see them breaking over 60% there at some point and maybe netting close to 100k votes. Also, remember as Iowa rurals pretty much universally shrink, they have less votes they need to overcome (though this is probably cancelled out by a continued rightwards shift).

My point is that the majority of a state needs to trend similarly to produce a meaningful shift. You can try Election Shuffler to see how much it takes for any state to swing either way, but one good example is Florida: even if Biden matched Clinton's percent margin in South Florida (which comprises a notably higher share of its respective state than Polk-Dallas-Iowa does), he would *still lose*.

Yes, I suppose if Des Moines somehow becomes a progressive haven like Madison, Chapel Hill or Ann Arbor while lacking a college of similar size and caliber, continues growing at its current rate for half a century, all while rural areas somehow stay less Republican than Polk, yes Iowa will be competitive. But at that point we're already at a national one-party rule, so.....

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought

No, people tend to overestimate how much one area can move the margin—this only works if its share of the overall population is similar to Metro Atlanta or the Twin Cities.

Even if you apply the most generous, preposterous scenario and shift each of Polk, Dallas and Story's margins 35% to the left without even touching the rest of the state, Trump still outright wins. Altogether, those three counties only cast about 20% of the state's votes, and it would take like half a century for it to even reach 1/3. Bliowa is impossible if rurals continue swinging right

I agree with the first part, though I'd argue all 3 counties have a pretty big influence on the state. Currently, while they may only have been 20% of ballots cast, they are 27.4% of the total population. up from 25.3% just a decade ago, and this number will likely continue to rise a couple % per decade.

Polk County is actually not too far below Dane County in population (561k vs 492k), yet only netted Biden 40k votes in 2020 Pres vs Dane's 180k votes. The margin in Iowa was just under 140k votes, so hypothetically if Polk County had Dane County turnout levels and margins, Iowa would be extremely close, and likely have gone Dem since it's assumed the Dem would have done better in other urban areas too.

Will this happen? No. But if Dems were to run up a huge score in Polk, it could get interesting. I could see them breaking over 60% there at some point and maybe netting close to 100k votes. Also, remember as Iowa rurals pretty much universally shrink, they have less votes they need to overcome (though this is probably cancelled out by a continued rightwards shift).

My point is that the majority of a state needs to trend similarly to produce a meaningful shift. You can try Election Shuffler to see how much it takes for any state to swing either way, but one good example is Florida: even if Biden matched Clinton's percent margin in South Florida (which comprises a notably higher share of its respective state than Polk-Dallas-Iowa does), he would *still lose*.

Yes, I suppose if Des Moines somehow becomes a progressive haven like Madison, Chapel Hill or Ann Arbor while lacking a college of similar size and caliber, continues growing at its current rate for half a century, all while rural areas somehow stay less Republican than Polk, yes Iowa will be competitive. But at that point we're already at a national one-party rule, so.....

Yeah fair enough. There's too many ifs to make this remotely plausible. I still think Iowa population shifts help Ds but not enough to overcome their slip with WWC.

[MT Treasurer]

This would be my general map

IA as "strong Dem", yet WI is simultaneously a "R-favored" state (even though the far more liberal Madison is "growing" just as fast as Des Moines)? What a weird take. It’s also illogical to assume that the entirety of Des Moines area growth favors Democrats, especially to an extent that it completely offsets the rural/small-town collapse in the rest of the state.

Also, ME being the "strongest Dem" state in the Northeast (with more Democratic-friendly population shifts than Oregon) makes absolutely no sense.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This would be my general map

IA as "strong Dem", yet WI is simultaneously a "R-favored" state (even though the far more liberal Madison is "growing" just as fast as Des Moines)? What a weird take. It’s also illogical to assume that the entirety of Des Moines area growth favors Democrats, especially to an extent that it completely offsets the rural/small-town collapse in the rest of the state.

Also, ME being the "strongest Dem" state in the Northeast (with more Democratic-friendly population shifts than Oregon) makes absolutely no sense.

I didn’t even notice Maine being dark blue but I’ll say I also disagree with that one. They are the single oldest state and the 65+ group is not only left leaning but is perhaps the straight up most liberal cohort in the state. Not to mention the similarities with Wisco/Iowa, except their liberal cities only have like 125 people

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

South Carolina strikes me as the foremost example of a state where demographic change is to the GOP's advantage.

[OneJ]

This would be my general map

I don't see why you labeled MS as favoring Republicans. Wouldn't it be better classified as neutral?

[Ferguson97]

This would be my general map

Where's this from?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would be my general map

I don't see why you labeled MS as favoring Republicans. Wouldn't it be better classified as neutral?

Largely because the Black Belt and MS Delta is shrinking, only real good news for Dems is DeSoto County and arguably Hinds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would be my general map

Where's this from?

Mostly just based on my own thoughts nothing statistical

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would be my general map

IA as "strong Dem", yet WI is simultaneously a "R-favored" state (even though the far more liberal Madison is "growing" just as fast as Des Moines)? What a weird take. It’s also illogical to assume that the entirety of Des Moines area growth favors Democrats, especially to an extent that it completely offsets the rural/small-town collapse in the rest of the state.

Also, ME being the "strongest Dem" state in the Northeast (with more Democratic-friendly population shifts than Oregon) makes absolutely no sense.

I didn’t even notice Maine being dark blue but I’ll say I also disagree with that one. They are the single oldest state and the 65+ group is not only left leaning but is perhaps the straight up most liberal cohort in the state. Not to mention the similarities with Wisco/Iowa, except their liberal cities only have like 125 people

That is true but North Maine is universally shrinking while South Maine is growing. Should prolly be closer to about even tbh.

[OneJ]

This would be my general map

I don't see why you labeled MS as favoring Republicans. Wouldn't it be better classified as neutral?

Largely because the Black Belt and MS Delta is shrinking, only real good news for Dems is DeSoto County and arguably Hinds.

The reason I suggest "neutral" is that most of the few growing counties in the state seem to generally be shifting in favor of the Democrats such as Rankin, Madison, Lamar, Jackson, etc. Some of it is due to some demographic change and some of it is just following the overall nationwide urban/suburban trending towards Dems.

And while the Delta is shrinking, most of the rural non-Delta counties aren't really growing either and many of them are still shifting towards Republicans and could be reaching their peak soon. As long as that continues to happen along with the urban/suburban county trends, I think it might be fair to say that "neutral" would be the best fit, in my opinion.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would be my general map

I don't see why you labeled MS as favoring Republicans. Wouldn't it be better classified as neutral?

Largely because the Black Belt and MS Delta is shrinking, only real good news for Dems is DeSoto County and arguably Hinds.

The reason I suggest "neutral" is that most of the few growing counties in the state seem to generally be shifting in favor of the Democrats such as Rankin, Madison, Lamar, Jackson, etc. Some of it is due to some demographic change and some of it is just following the overall nationwide urban/suburban trending towards Dems.

And while the Delta is shrinking, most of the rural non-Delta counties aren't really growing either and many of them are still shifting towards Republicans and could be reaching their peak soon. As long as that continues to happen along with the urban/suburban county trends, I think it might be fair to say that "neutral" would be the best fit, in my opinion.

While yes, some of these suburban counties are shifting to the left, they still lean so heavily R that the R raw vote gain largely cancels out D gains in margin. Fact is MS black pop, the main Dem group has pretty mcuh stagnated it's share of the pop