In what states does current growth and demographic changes favor Republicans?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Generally, it seems like cities are growing and states are becoming more diverse. This at face value is good news for Democrats, but Republican's strategy of peeling of WWC and lower propensity voters from Dems has kept the party strong. However, from a raw growth and demographic perspective what changes are helping Republicans?

For example, Trump flipping Luzerne County likely did not have much to do with demographic changes, more that he was able to get more voters to either show up or vote for him.

However, Democrats flipping Harris County, while some may have to do with peeling off white surbanites, by and large had to do with the growth and diversification of Houston.

[Roll Roons]

Florida, Florida, Florida. Think about all those counties in the Central and Southwest Florida that are magnets for conservative retirees. That's why the state has become so difficult for Democrats, although I think it's still within reach if they get their s**t together.

[King of Kensington]

South Carolina?  The Black population share is dropping.

[ProgressiveModerate]

South Carolina?  The Black population share is dropping.

That and the fastest growing parts of the state are mostly currently Republican suburbs, though I suspect they may get bluer over time, and unlike in many states they're not growing because they're becoming particularly diverse

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida, Florida, Florida. Think about all those counties in the Central and Southwest Florida that are magnets for conservative retirees. That's why the state has become so difficult for Democrats, although I think it's still within reach if they get their s**t together.

Really it seems like the only good news in FL for Dems is what has happened in Orlando, and in Duval County though the Jacknsonville area as a whole is still a net for Rs because of St. Johns county. I would say in particular the Southwest coast of Florida has seen some pretty insane influxes of retirees with the counties staying pretty R politically.

[King of Kensington]

North Dakota trended rightward with the oil boom.  But that's no longer "current" growth.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_dakota/north-dakota-population-on-decline/article_4e46f004-6370-11ec-b1e5-2f151cd997bf.html

[Mr.Phips]

Florida, Florida, Florida. Think about all those counties in the Central and Southwest Florida that are magnets for conservative retirees. That's why the state has become so difficult for Democrats, although I think it's still within reach if they get their s**t together.

Really it seems like the only good news in FL for Dems is what has happened in Orlando, and in Duval County though the Jacknsonville area as a whole is still a net for Rs because of St. Johns county. I would say in particular the Southwest coast of Florida has seen some pretty insane influxes of retirees with the counties staying pretty R politically.

We’re at the point in FL where double digit wins in Duval and Seminole probably wouldn’t be enough for Dems to win statewide given the trends and growth elsewhere.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The entire Midwest, minus Minnesota and arguably Illinois. I think the next republican PV win will include really shocking performances in places like Erie, Mahoning/Loraine (obviously), Lake IN, Peoria IL, Muskegon, and Kenosha. First, the young and often diverse college educated crowds moving to Dallas or Atlanta have to be coming from somewhere, and often times they are the kids of college educated parents from the suburbs of stagnating midwestern cities. Second, many industrial midwestern cities are bleeding population and getting older/whiter as a result

[Skill and Chance]

1. Retiree resort areas, so FL and coastal SC/NC most prominently.

2. Declining birthrates and enrollment point to structural R improvement in college towns (albeit from a very low base), particularly those with non-elite private colleges.  This would show up first and most clearly in rural New England.

3. Oil and gas boom areas, but it's so cyclical that it could net out to 0 over the long term of booms and busts.  If there's a case for this, it would be strongest in the Permian Basin area of TX and Eastern NM, where conditions are so favorable that it can still be profitable through the downturns.

So that's Florida, the Carolinas, New Mexico, and maybe Northern New England. 

[King of Kensington]

There was a lot of D boosterism about North Carolina ca. 2008 (Research Triangle!), when demographics as destiny was at its peak. 

[Sol]

The growth in coastal parts of NC is beneficial for Republicans of course, but it's also important to note that only really the area between Carteret and Brunswick counties is capable of supporting large beachside communities--the Outer Banks can only support so many people so growth there is kind of structurally limited. It's not like South Carolina, where nearly the entire coast can be urbanized.

As a result I think it's fair to say that on net demographic changes in North Carolina are friendlier to Democrats, although that's nowhere as clear as in Georgia or something--and persuasion is always going to matter more than dull demographics-as-destiny narratives.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There was a lot of D boosterism about North Carolina ca. 2008 (Research Triangle!), when demographics as destiny was at its peak. 

I would argue Demographic changes in NC still favor Dems, just maybe not as much as people initially thought. While there are the countertrends of the coast and the depopulating black-belt, most of teh GOP's gains have been through getting insane margins in the densely populated rural areas in the Western part of the state. Growth in the state is almost exclusively concentrated to teh cities, even the fastest growing part of the coast, which is Wilmington, Dems have been gaining.

While it may not be as clear as as state like GA, I'd say current shifts def favor Dems in NC.



This is a 2014 -- 2020 NC swing map, I used these 2 races as Biden and Hagan did pretty simillar.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The entire Midwest, minus Minnesota and arguably Illinois. I think the next republican PV win will include really shocking performances in places like Erie, Mahoning/Loraine (obviously), Lake IN, Peoria IL, Muskegon, and Kenosha. First, the young and often diverse college educated crowds moving to Dallas or Atlanta have to be coming from somewhere, and often times they are the kids of college educated parents from the suburbs of stagnating midwestern cities. Second, many industrial midwestern cities are bleeding population and getting older/whiter as a result

Midwest is tricky because while a lot of these key Dem cities are bleeding, so are rural areas, often by greater amounts.

One midwestern state where shifts I'd say pretty objectively favor Rs is Wisconsin; rural areas have held up ok considering the bleeding we see in a lot of other states and Milwaukee's population loss, especially in the heavily black parts, have been brutal for Dems. While it is true Madison is growing, it's still relatively low population compared to Milwaukee metro.

I'd also put Ohio in this bucket. While it is true Columbus has done well, NE OH has just been bleeding, especially in the hearts of these key cities that used to be key to Dem victories. As for Cincinnati, a lot of it's growth is in suburbs or exurbs that still lean pretty heavily R. And outside of Appalachia, Ohio rural aren't terrible.

Michigan is prolly net even as while Detroit is shrinking, the communities immediately around it along with GR are the fastest growing parts of the state. Rural areas are shrinking, especially in the North. Dems MI strategy going forwards will have to be running up margins in a bunch of these smaller cities than just getting a huge win out of Wayne County.

Indiana is probably also even. The Northwest corner of Gary which used to be the biggest Democratic center of the state has lost population pretty rapidly, while Indianapolis which is now Dems main vote get is growing very well throughout.

Illinois is also prolly a wash as you stated.

Minnesota is defiantly good for Dems as twin cities is growing very fast

I'd say Pennsylvania is mostly good news for Dems as the rural parts of teh state are universally shrinking, and there's quite a clear growth line between rural Appalachia part of the state and SEPA. Main good news for Rs would be Pittsburg losses in teh Eastern half of the metro, especially around the black population, but the Western half is growing and become more divewrse so it kind of cancels itself out.

Iowa is one where growth is underrated good for Dems. Most of the growth is out of Des Moines, with a notable amount out of Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. Basically, all the rurals are shrinking. Iowa's hard R shift in the past decade was mostly because it was disproportionately hit by the Dem collapse of rural WWC rural voters. If hypothetically Democrats could keep rural margins to Biden levels, iowa could theoretically become competitive again at some point, though my suspicion is the rural areas will continue to get redder.

(https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=stateleglower&mapData=popchgpct1020&markerL=43.1968%2C-87.3647#map=5.32/42.665/-90.22), a good resource for analyzing population shifts by state LDs level. you can visually see a very clear border between SEPA and appalachia in PA.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

South Carolina

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would be my general map

[Roll Roons]

This would be my general map

I may put NJ in neutral - the GOP benefits from the explosive growth of the Orthodox Jewish population in Ocean County.

[Bootes Void]

This would be my general map

Probably not Iowa and most of the northeast leaning dem in general

[Sol]

Iowa is a good example of how demographic change isn't the end of the story--the Des Moines has moved leftward and grown quite a bit but that doesn't matter at all when Democrats go from winning many rural counties to losing them by large margins.

[King of Kensington]

Iowa is a strong D trend?

[Roll Roons]

Iowa is a strong D trend?

The fastest growing counties are all either blue (Polk, Johnson, Linn, Story) or trending that way (Dallas), while a lot of the rural areas are shrinking.

The state has turned red because Democrats used to rely on rural strength that's largely collapsed. I doubt it'll be as Republican as Idaho or anything, but they likely haven't hit rock bottom in a lot of rural areas yet.

[cvparty]

This would be my general map

I may put NJ in neutral - the GOP benefits from the explosive growth of the Orthodox Jewish population in Ocean County.

It’s mostly exclusive to Lakewood, which comprises just barely 1% of the state’s population and even less of the state’s total votes due to low turnout, so idk if that alone is enough to tip the rating

[ProgressiveModerate]

Huh this is interesting. Did some calculations with some data I had leftover, largely from my geography bias calculations, and this is the output. Lol at ND. There definitely is correlation here, but some states such as TX, GA, FL, and WI seem off.

It seems like this model best picks up on physical growth (i.e. is area X growing or shrinking) but fails to pick up on who's moving to new areas. For example, while Denton County is rapidly growing, newcomers are likely less R leaning, perhaps even D leaning compared to current residents, and are more likely to be a minority. That's why I think this model seems to get a lot of Southern states that are depending on diversification "wrong"

[thebeloitmoderate]

Also in NYC most of the recent growth has been with the Orthodox Jewish community especially in Borough Park in Brooklyn. While NYC is still growing it is not rapidly growing save for Queens, SI, Bronx, and Brooklyn and Manhattan is still below their 1950 peak populations

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also in NYC most of the recent growth has been with the Orthodox Jewish community especially in Borough Park in Brooklyn. While NYC is still growing it is not rapidly growing save for Queens, SI, Bronx, and Brooklyn and Manhattan is still below their 1950 peak populations

Eh not really. It's growing faster than the State at large, but the fastest growing parts of the City are Astoria, Long Island City, Williamsburg and midtown Manhattan. Orthodox Jewish growth really isn't particularly notable and South Brooklyn is growing at a simillar rate to most of Brooklyn and Queens.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought