KY-Mason-Dixon: Paul + 16

[2016]

Rand Paul (R, Incumbent) 55
Charles Booker (D) 39

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/Mason_Dixon_Kentucky_Senate_Jan_2022.pdf

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1487061007214252038

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R, nothing to see here.

Surprised there's a plausible KY poll this early, as they usually tend to be garbage with tons of undecideds and some Dems starting to think the race may be semi-competitive.

Beshear's approvals are a silver lining; he's for sure not DOA in 2023.

[Skill and Chance]

IDK why Booker persists in this doomed senate run?  He is from Louisville and could have the open and Safe Dem KY-03 for the decade. 

[Sir Mohamed]

IDK why Booker persists in this doomed senate run?  He is from Louisville and could have the open and Safe Dem KY-03 for the decade. 

Delusion and the ridiculous belief among some progressives that rural Appalachia voters are secret progressives/populists on economic issues.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Beshear approvals are stunning. He'll probably lose 2023 anyway but he'll have a good shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear isn't losing in 23 but this race was never a race

[Pollster]

Paul has always been weaker than generic R, very interested in seeing his final winning margin here.

[ElectionsGuy]

In October 2020, this pollster had McConnell ahead 9, 51-42. He won by 20, 58-38.

If Rand Paul is a "weak incumbent", then Mitch McConnell is a dreadful one.

That Beshear approval rating is also ridiculous, although it wouldn't surprise me if he got a tornado response bump and is in the mid-50's.

[Calthrina950]

In October 2020, this pollster had McConnell ahead 9, 51-42. He won by 20, 58-38.

If Rand Paul is a "weak incumbent", then Mitch McConnell is a dreadful one.

That Beshear approval rating is also ridiculous, although it wouldn't surprise me if he got a tornado response bump and is in the mid-50's.

By how much do you think Paul will win by? I could easily see him receiving over 60% against Booker.

[ElectionsGuy]

In October 2020, this pollster had McConnell ahead 9, 51-42. He won by 20, 58-38.

If Rand Paul is a "weak incumbent", then Mitch McConnell is a dreadful one.

That Beshear approval rating is also ridiculous, although it wouldn't surprise me if he got a tornado response bump and is in the mid-50's.

By how much do you think Paul will win by? I could easily see him receiving over 60% against Booker.

Probably 25-30%, roughly the same or slightly higher than Trump's margin. Much like how polls overestimated McGrath's %, I don't expect Booker to get more than high 30's.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Is it just me or does Paul seem like he’d been an extremely strong candidate in a different state but doesn’t really match Kentucky’s population of former democrat conservative populists? I get more Josh Hawley vibes from them

[Vice President Christian Man]

Is it just me or does Paul seem like he’d been an extremely strong candidate in a different state but doesn’t really match Kentucky’s population of former democrat conservative populists? I get more Josh Hawley vibes from them

I think Rand would do extremely well in a state like Idaho.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Beshear approvals are stunning. He'll probably lose 2023 anyway but he'll have a good shot.

We're still a ways away but I have a good feeling about him winning re-election. I don't think he'll win by 28 points but he could easily win by double-digits if his high approval rating continues. It seems like Kentucky could be the inverse for New England. Deeply Republican but still supports more moderate Dems. I doubt Beshear would've beat Bevin if it wasn't for his family though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for ruby red WVA and KY the Rs are supposed to flip both these races and D's are ahead gives me hope for OH Senate

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

IDK why Booker persists in this doomed senate run?  He is from Louisville and could have the open and Safe Dem KY-03 for the decade. 

Delusion and the ridiculous belief among some progressives that rural Appalachia voters are secret progressives/populists on economic issues.

Honestly I think they are economically populist (not progressive, but populist) but care far more about social issues. Until that changes they're voting straight R.

[Benjamin Frank]

Given what James Carville said, it will be interesting to see how much Charles Booker raises, especially from out of state money.

I normally don't believe in making predictions, but I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that the best Booker could do is about 45% of the vote.  In the 2016 election, Rand Paul defeated then Lexington Mayor Jim Gray 57.3-42.7%  So, any money sent to Booker is basically a waste.

Of course, I mean that as 'the best' is about 45%. Jim Gray ran against Rand Paul in an environment not long after many people thought Rand Paul made a fool of himself running for the Republican Presidential nomination and, so, might have been vulnerable.

The Democratic floor in the state is probably between 35-40% and I'd bet Booker gets somewhere around there.

[TheTide]

Is it just me or does Paul seem like he’d been an extremely strong candidate in a different state but doesn’t really match Kentucky’s population of former democrat conservative populists? I get more Josh Hawley vibes from them

His margins in 2010 and 2016 were in the 10-15% range. Not very impressive given the recent trends in the state and that those two years were good for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why you shouldn't look at polls all the time Turnout in VBM can exceed polls because we got 80M votes in 2020 and they were expecting 65M

[MT Treasurer]

Beshear's approval/disapproval spread is significantly larger than Paul's lead over Charles Booker in the 2022 Senate race?

STEP 1: Express surprise at 'unpredictable' Republican overperformance in last election
STEP 2: Vow never to blindly trust polling again
STEP 3: Make fundamentals-based predictions
STEP 4: Adjust fundamentals-based predictions based on new "shock" polls  <-- YOU ARE HERE
STEP 5: Express surprise at 'unpredictable' Republican overperformance in last election
STEP 6: Vow... 

aka THE ATLAS CYCLE

[NewYorkExpress]

Paul probably would be vulnerable if Democrats ran a stronger candidate than Booker, and 2022 was a more Democratic year. Unfortunately, neither of those things are true.

[Continential]

Paul probably would be vulnerable if Democrats ran a stronger candidate than Booker, and 2022 was a more Democratic year. Unfortunately, neither of those things are true.

lol

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Paul would maybe be vulnerable if this was Trump's 2nd midterm. Maybe being the key word

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Paul is not going anywhere even in Trump 2nd term

Why do users think that it will be a D wave in a 2nd Trump term it was a 304/234 map in 22 but States are votnng more like the Prez anyways so WI, MI and PA aren't gonna flip R even in a Biden Midterm

That's why the Delegations in the H and S looks exactly like the 304/234 blue wall as well as Govs, the reason why Rs overperform.in WI, PA and MI is because they have R state legislature but for Gov and Sen they vote for Dems