I could buy a 51/49 R Senate and D House if things really turn around for the Democrats, but this would either mean that House Republicans failed spectacularly across the board, or 2022 ended up being surprisingly neutral, but Senate Democrats dropped the ball in multiple races. While the ceiling for Republicans in the House is somewhat limited by new districts, it's extremely hard to see them gaining four seats or less barring a huge sea change for the Democrats.
Pretty much this.
It's actually interesting that you have to go back to the 19th Century for time in which the president's party controlled the House, but not Senate. 2001-2003 was exceptional and only made possible through a party switch. It's actually a very rare constellation, as opposed the president's party holding the Senate, but not the House.
We only came close to this in 2020, and the Democrats only control the senate now because of two special elections and Georgia's runoff. I remember always finding it unrealistic that at the beginning of
House of Cards, a new president (Garret Walker) coming in after winning an apparent landslide while his party only controls the House. I think at one point it was even mentioned Republicans hold 56 seats in Season 2.
