DFP-2024 AZ (DEM): Gallego +58

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1486455443400675332?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

It doesn't matter, because she's not going to run for re-election.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lol I’ve never seen a politicians this underwater (out side of a cult)

[Lambsbread]

Lol I’ve never seen a politicians this underwater (out side of a cult)

Ted Kennedy was underwater that one time

[hurricanehink]

Lol I’ve never seen a politicians this underwater (out side of a cult)

Ted Kennedy was underwater that one time

Literal laugh out loud

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’ve said this before, but, for context, Lieberman was at 40-20 something positive approvals before losing his primary and Spector was 50-30.

Kyrsten Sinema is without hyperbole the most unpopular politician with her own party since polling began and it’s not even close.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’ve said this before, but, for context, Lieberman was at 40-20 something positive approvals before losing his primary and Spector was 50-30.

Kyrsten Sinema is without hyperbole the most unpopular politician with her own party since polling began and it’s not even close.

That’s what happens when you fortnite dance away a living wage on the senate floor

[Meatball Ron]

I’ve said this before, but, for context, Lieberman was at 40-20 something positive approvals before losing his primary and Spector was 50-30.

Kyrsten Sinema is without hyperbole the most unpopular politician with her own party since polling began and it’s not even close.

That’s what happens when you fortnite dance away a living wage on the senate floor

Lol, her minimum wage vote - which was totally inconsequential seeing as it needed 60 votes and lots of other Dems were also against it in that particular form - has little to nothing to do with the hole she's in.

Tanking BBB and voting rights (through her continued support for the filibuster), on the other hand

[Xing]

There’s no way it would end up this lopsided, but this kind of intense unpopularity doesn’t just go away because of short attention spans or because someone says “muh electability.”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema is no longer welcome in the D party she voted to keep the Filibuster

[MT Treasurer]

We’ll see about this after Kelly loses, Sinema votes to confirm Breyer's replacement & moves to the left after Republicans retake the Senate, and Schumer/DSCC throw their full weight behind Sinema. Even if the primary were held this year, she wouldn’t lose by 60 points.

It’s insane how popular she is with Republicans in this poll, though (63% favorable, 29% unfavorable; among Democrats it’s 16% favorable, 77% unfavorable). I think she could actually get away with a party switch with numbers like that (not that this will ever happen, of course).

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’ve said this before, but, for context, Lieberman was at 40-20 something positive approvals before losing his primary and Spector was 50-30.

Kyrsten Sinema is without hyperbole the most unpopular politician with her own party since polling began and it’s not even close.

That’s what happens when you fortnite dance away a living wage on the senate floor

Lol, her minimum wage vote - which was totally inconsequential seeing as it needed 60 votes and lots of other Dems were also against it in that particular form - has little to nothing to do with the hole she's in.

Tanking BBB and voting rights (through her continued support for the filibuster), on the other hand

Without her just in general acting snobby and smug she wouldn’t be in such a deep hole. She either is just a person with a bad personality or has a terrible media team

[NewYorkExpress]

We’ll see about this after Kelly loses, Sinema votes to confirm Breyer's replacement & moves to the left after Republicans retake the Senate, and Schumer/DSCC throw their full weight behind Sinema. Even if the primary were held this year, she wouldn’t lose by 60 points.

It’s insane how popular she is with Republicans in this poll, though (63% favorable, 29% unfavorable; among Democrats it’s 16% favorable, 77% unfavorable). I think she could actually get away with a party switch with numbers like that (not that this will ever happen, of course).

The only way Republicans in the Senate agree to Simena switching parties is if she agrees not to run again.

They can win the Senate seat without her (just run Deucy, Yee, Brnovich, hell even Gosar or Biggs could probably pick the seat up if Biden's on the ballot again.)

[UncleSam]

We’ll see about this after Kelly loses, Sinema votes to confirm Breyer's replacement & moves to the left after Republicans retake the Senate, and Schumer/DSCC throw their full weight behind Sinema. Even if the primary were held this year, she wouldn’t lose by 60 points.

It’s insane how popular she is with Republicans in this poll, though (63% favorable, 29% unfavorable; among Democrats it’s 16% favorable, 77% unfavorable). I think she could actually get away with a party switch with numbers like that (not that this will ever happen, of course).

I actually think she’s positioning herself for a party switch. Otherwise her actions don’t really make much sense. She probably views Biden as likely to lose in 2024 (and likely to lose AZ, potentially by more than a couple points), and wants to shift parties after the midterms / after Rs take the majority anyway. I can’t really see a rationale for how she has shifted politically while in office otherwise. She’s straight DOA in a Democratic primary most likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL Trump was at 39/47 in Jan and under 50 percent when Es won the Senate and Biden is leading all GoP candidates Biden and D's are losing the Senate with 3.0 unemployment just like Trump abd RS didn't lose the Senate in 2018 due to low unemployment

[The Mikado]

It doesn't matter, because she's not going to run for re-election.

I don't often agree with SnowLabrador, but I think this is right. The Senator Sinema resembles most is her predecessor in that AZ Senate seat, Jeff Flake, who was so overwhelmingly unpopular and unwelcome in the Republican Party at the end that he decided to bail out of a certain loss in the primary and just retire. Sinema's even more unpopular with her party than Flake was with his.

From this poll, among Likely Democratic Primary voters (which includes a healthy helping of Independents):

Kyrsten Sinema

Very Favorable 7
Somewhat Favorable 12
Somewhat Unfavorable 22
Very Unfavorable 54

How does she do among the "Moderate" subgroup, who should be her bread and butter?

Very Favorable 11
Somewhat Favorable 18
Somewhat Unfavorable 21
Very Unfavorable 43

Simply put, no politician has ever come back from being this intensely unpopular with their own party. It just doesn't happen. Sinema will most likely just not want to get humiliated in a primary and just decide to announce she's not running for reelection.

Any comparison you can come up with (Joe Lieberman, Arlen Specter, Lisa Murkowski, Dick Lugar, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker) were not this unpopular facing the election in question. Again, Flake and Corker just decided to not even run in the face of milder unpopularity than this.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here's how Sinema can still win:

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1486468590845022212

This visualization of the same poll is pretty striking. How many Senators have you heard of who ever hit 58% Strongly Disapprove within their own party?

None, that's how many. Never happened. R or D. And this is why the "this is all gonna be water under the bridge" people are so wrong: it's not a fringe trying to primary Sinema, it's a fringe trying to save her. The mainstream institutions of the Democratic Party (League of Conservation Voters, NARAL, EMILY's List, are just some of the more prominent groups) have all excommunicated her and the AZ Democratic Party has censured her. This is closer to a top-down drumming her out than a traditional primary challenge. It's a wildly different beast that, again, reminds me of how the GOP drummed out Jeff Flake and Bob Corker in 2018 by making it obvious to them that it was pointless to even run for reelection.

[President Johnson]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Cheney probably has a greater chance of winning. I think she still gets around 30%. Sinema is about the suffer the worst primary defeat for an incumbent in a long time. If she even runs, which I doubt.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1486468590845022212
This visualization of the same poll is pretty striking. How many Senators have you heard of who ever hit 58% Strongly Disapprove within their own party?

None, that's how many. Never happened. R or D. And this is why the "this is all gonna be water under the bridge" people are so wrong: it's not a fringe trying to primary Sinema, it's a fringe trying to save her. The mainstream institutions of the Democratic Party (League of Conservation Voters, NARAL, EMILY's List, are just some of the more prominent groups) have all excommunicated her and the AZ Democratic Party has censured her. This is closer to a top-down drumming her out than a traditional primary challenge. It's a wildly different beast that, again, reminds me of how the GOP drummed out Jeff Flake and Bob Corker in 2018 by making it obvious to them that it was pointless to even run for reelection.

I wonder, if it sets her "free". Knowing, that she has absolutely no chance makes her basically immune to any threats from Progressives or Biden or whoever. Why compromising, if you're anyway done.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Cheney probably has a greater chance of winning. I think she still gets around 30%. Sinema is about the suffer the worst primary defeat for an incumbent in a long time. If she even runs, which I doubt.

If that's the case, Democrats are a lot less tolerant of dissent for a much lower level of objection to their party's orthodoxies. That of course is not a premise people want to accept, but it's largely true.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Cheney probably has a greater chance of winning. I think she still gets around 30%. Sinema is about the suffer the worst primary defeat for an incumbent in a long time. If she even runs, which I doubt.

If that's the case, Democrats are a lot less tolerant of dissent for a much lower level of objection to their party's orthodoxies. That of course is not a premise people want to accept, but it's largely true.

‘My party shouldn’t be allowed to legislate’ is not minor dissent.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Broke: Blanched
Woke: Sinema'd

[Calthrina950]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Just as Cheney is getting run out by Republicans for opposing Trump, Sinema is getting run out by Democrats for supporting the filibuster.