GA Quinnipiac: Walker +1

[Roll Roons]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3833

Walker at 49, Warnock at 48. This thing is close and could very well go to a runoff again.

[SnowLabrador]

And so it begins. It's gonna be ugly.

[2016]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3833

Walker at 49, Warnock at 48. This thing is close and could very well go to a runoff again.

Biden at 36/59 JA in GA.

No way Warnock is going to win with Biden not topping 40 %.

This will be a runaway like the Perdue/Nunn Race in 2014!

[2016]

And so it begins. It's gonna be ugly.

Biden at 36 % JA. No way Warnock can win this with Biden so low.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/ga/senate/exitpoll/

President Obama was at 42/57 JA in Georgia during 2014 Midterms Exit Poll.

[Xing]

This one is probably going to be close, but the fact that Warnock needs to crack 50% makes it more difficult for him, and if I had to guess, he narrowly goes down in a run-off. That said, he could easily make a comeback in 2028, even if a Republican wins the presidential election.

[President Johnson]

This race is a tossup, but are we really taking Quinnipiac seriously anymore?

After they heavily overestimated Democratic support before, some of their latest polls had an absurd Republican bias that in itsself made little sense. Just a reminder they had Biden at 33% approval rating nationally (which is laughable) while Republicans were just ahead by a point in the generic ballot. This seems to follow the same pattern. Q should just quit polling!

[Zendstrummer]

This one is probably going to be close, but the fact that Warnock needs to crack 50% makes it more difficult for him, and if I had to guess, he narrowly goes down in a run-off. That said, he could easily make a comeback in 2028, even if a Republican wins the presidential election.

Or maybe run for Governor in 2026 if Stacey Abrams loses again?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warnock and Chambers will win a Runoff if need be, don't forget LA is a runoff with multiple candidates, Warnock didn't get to a runoff by himself he got to a runoff with multiple candidates, Users are so Doomer, isn't this the same Xing that got his user prediction wrong on GA runoff race one of them he did

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Sounds about right. Walker is probably the worst competitive GOP Senate candidate this cycle, edging out Dr. Oz, but the winds may carry him over the finish line anyway.

[2016]

This race is a tossup, but are we really taking Quinnipiac seriously anymore?

After they heavily overestimated Democratic support before, some of their latest polls had an absurd Republican bias that in itsself made little sense. Just a reminder they had Biden at 33% approval rating nationally (which is laughable) while Republicans were just ahead by a point in the generic ballot. This seems to follow the same pattern. Q should just quit polling!

Warnock has ZERO Chance of winning.

Pres Obamas JA was 42/57 per 2014 NBC GA Exit Poll
Party ID was R 37 / D 35 / I 28
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/ga/senate/exitpoll/
Nunn overperformed Obama by about 3 Percentage Points, she got 45,2 %.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

And if we look at the 2018 Democratic-Wave Year the NBC 2018 GA Exit Poll looked like this.
Pres Trump JA was 52/47
Party ID was R 38 / D 33 / I 28
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/ga/
Kemp underperformed Trumps JA by 1.8 Percentage Points resulting in an 50.2 to 48.8 Win over Abrams.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Georgia_gubernatorial_election

The GA Electorate will probably more white, older this year. I just can't see Warnock and Abrams winning for that matter.

Also, this is a registered Voter Survey and given Republican Enthusiasm around the Country you can add a few more Points to Walker.

[libertpaulian]

If those are Warnock's numbers, Kelly's numbers must be worse.

[Horus]

Biden's numbers are atrocious and dragging Warnock down a bit here. Despite that, 47/40 job approval is still really good for an unabashedly liberal incumbent in a purple state in a probable GOP wave year. Will Stacey's turnout machine be enough to save him?

Also, Warnock is more popular than Ossoff by a decent margin, thank goodness their seats aren't switched because Jon would be DOA.

Oh, and lol at Kemp's approval.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If it’s this close with Biden doing that bad I actually feel better about Warnock. An even mild Biden approval bump helps him tremendously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden's numbers are atrocious and dragging Warnock down a bit here. Despite that, 47/40 job approval is still really good for an unabashedly liberal incumbent in a purple state in a probable GOP wave year. Will Stacey's turnout machine be enough to save him?

Also, Warnock is more popular than Ossoff by a decent margin, thank goodness their seats aren't switched because Jon would be DOA.

Oh, and lol at Kemp's approval.

Did you know Trump kept the Senate and in January Trump was at 39/47 I'm 2018 all signs pt to Ds losing the H but keeping the Senate

It's a Runoff Anyways if neither one gets 50 but this is QU too

[Unelectable Bystander]

If it’s this close with Biden doing that bad I actually feel better about Warnock. An even mild Biden approval bump helps him tremendously.

This is starting to become a pattern of individual Dems seemingly out-running Biden, and republicans needs to figure out why

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If it’s this close with Biden doing that bad I actually feel better about Warnock. An even mild Biden approval bump helps him tremendously.

This is starting to become a pattern of individual Dems seemingly out-running Biden, and republicans needs to figure out why

I have two theories
1) Biden’s approvals are just a general malaise about the state of the nation and not a reaction any specific circumstance and so aren’t rubbing off on individual candidates the way that say Obama’s approvals did during ACA fight. There just is controversial thing about Biden that can be translated to say Warnock.

2) Republican candidates, at least at the Senate level, are particularly weak. In most races we have so far either random celebrity candidates or a slew of undifferentiated House back benchers on GOP side.

[CookieDamage]

So now Quinnipiac is good cuz an R is ahead...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So now Quinnipiac is good cuz an R is ahead...

No, they are still bad and you have to add 2-3 points to R 

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don’t understand red avatar logic. We think polls suck because they always overestimate D’s. I don’t think it’s hackish when it’s objective reality

[kwabbit]

This'll be the closest race of the cycle. Walker has good favorability numbers right now, but he is also relatively unknown. If he can make a good impression on those who don't know him, he's the favorite. But Walker from what I've seen is kind of dim, and Warnock is intelligent and well spoken. So Walker will need the environment to do most of the work for him to win.  

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This race is a tossup, but are we really taking Quinnipiac seriously anymore?

After they heavily overestimated Democratic support before, some of their latest polls had an absurd Republican bias that in itsself made little sense. Just a reminder they had Biden at 33% approval rating nationally (which is laughable) while Republicans were just ahead by a point in the generic ballot. This seems to follow the same pattern. Q should just quit polling!

Warnock has ZERO Chance of winning.

Pres Obamas JA was 42/57 per 2014 NBC GA Exit Poll
Party ID was R 37 / D 35 / I 28
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/ga/senate/exitpoll/
Nunn overperformed Obama by about 3 Percentage Points, she got 45,2 %.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

And if we look at the 2018 Democratic-Wave Year the NBC 2018 GA Exit Poll looked like this.
Pres Trump JA was 52/47
Party ID was R 38 / D 33 / I 28
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/ga/
Kemp underperformed Trumps JA by 1.8 Percentage Points resulting in an 50.2 to 48.8 Win over Abrams.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Georgia_gubernatorial_election

The GA Electorate will probably more white, older this year. I just can't see Warnock and Abrams winning for that matter.

Also, this is a registered Voter Survey and given Republican Enthusiasm around the Country you can add a few more Points to Walker.

Warnock isn't favored, but saying zero chance of winning is a very big stretch.

[TodayJunior]

Atlanta is big and getting bigger. If the GOP can only muster a virtual tie in Georgia in 2022, in this environment where Biden’s net disapproval is 40/55, then kiss it goodbye in 2024. At this rate, it’s moving left faster than Virginia was, and on second thought, Georgia will look more like Illinois cycle after cycle, Atlanta being the Chicago of the south. A Republican Georgia will only happen in major landslides.

They’re better off trying to go after the rust belt.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1486420085384302602

[wbrocks67]

If it’s this close with Biden doing that bad I actually feel better about Warnock. An even mild Biden approval bump helps him tremendously.

This is starting to become a pattern of individual Dems seemingly out-running Biden, and republicans needs to figure out why

It's pretty obvious IMO - Bidens #s have fallen approval-wise with 18-34 year olds, however when push comes to shove they will obviously still vote for Dems rather than Rs (if they arent sitting out altogether). Part of the reason why Biden's overall approval has fallen, b/c thats a huge group for Dems and his approval is like -30 there. But in a H2H with a Republican, Ds are obviously not losing to Rs by anywhere close to that amount for that group

[MillennialModerate]

Most predictable flip in the Senate for sure