Which party benefits electorally from Breyer's retirement?

[Calthrina950]

Neither. It's like Kagan in 2010.

Agreed. Breyer's retirement will not change the ideological balance on the Court, as he will be succeeded by another liberal. And Brown-Jackson, who Biden will likely nominate, is a relatively inoffensive candidate who should enjoy the support of the entire Democratic caucus and will be confirmed without much difficulty.

[Calthrina950]

The West Virginia Republican Party (in 2024)

An expectation that Manchin would vote for any Democratic SCOTUS nominee would be priced in to the WV-SEN 2024 result even if no SCOTUS vacancy were to occur. Based on this, Manchin will not be measurably worse off after voting to confirm a replacement to Breyer, and will only be doomed to an equal level as he was before.

I disagree. Manchin's pretty good (under these circumstances) approval ratings are because of his moderate image and the tons of articles effectively promoting him as someone who won't just back party line. Voting to confirm a justice who will be labelled as far-left by Republicans will hurt this reputation for him.

He already voted against Barrett though. At that point, the damage was done to his ability to run in 2024, and you are not doing additional damage by having him vote for a Dem nominee. That said, the writing was blatantly on the way for Manchins re-election campaign in 2024 from the moment after the 2018 results came in, so its not like he had a chance that he would be giving up anyways, and I do not believe the poll showing him above water in West Virginia to be at all accurate anyways.

This is certainly true. Manchin won by only 3% against Patrick Morrisey, who was a horrible candidate, and in a Democratic wave year. Moreover, he failed to obtain an absolute majority. I've long maintained that if Manchin had faced Evan Jenkins that year, he would have lost.

The idea that this is supposed to increase Dems chances is about as valid as Kavanaugh saving R's from a 2018 blue wave. It might've helped expose just how partisan the Dems were in those red states that should've never been there, and help oust them, but that's about it. Republicans don't have any equivalents to that in 2022 however. Johnson is the only incumbent in a Biden state and yet it's so marginally Biden that voting against this nominee isn't going to hurt him more than the countless other things Dems will attack him on.

IIRC Claire McCaskill was leading in polls until Kavanaugh? And I know I do recall correctly that the “enthusiasm gap” in polls between Ds and Rs did close. So, I’m not really sure that factually you have a lot of ground to stand on with that claim.

I recall seeing polls that either showed Hawley narrowly ahead or him and McCaskill within the margin of error. Donnelly was leading in polls up to Election Day. But both races had a large number of undecided voters, and on Election Day, those voters broke overwhelmingly Republican, which is why Hawley and Braun won by larger than expected and relatively decisive margins (~6% each). Thus, I think it is plausible that the Kavanaugh fight helped Republicans in flipping not only Missouri and Indiana, but also North Dakota. It probably didn't play as much of a role in Florida, where Nelson ran a lazy campaign and was outmaneuvered by Rick Scott, who successfully appealed to Hispanic voters.