Which party benefits electorally from Breyer's retirement?

[SnowLabrador]

I think Republicans. Supreme Court confirmation battles energize the red team more than the blue team. I fully believe that had Ruth Bader Ginsburg not died when she did, Thom Tillis at least would no longer be a Senator.

[Xing]

Democrats might be slightly more motivated than before, especially if the Supreme Court is very aggressive with a lot of its decisions, but it won't make that much of a difference.

[Skill and Chance]

Likely Democrats, not by enough to hold either chamber, but notching a significant win during a period of otherwise negative news could save a few seats.

[😥]

No difference

[coloradocowboi]

Dems. Biden's central problem rn is that his approvals are terrible with indy voters, and to punish him they are gonna vote GOP. This retirement gives him a positive press coverage opportunity after almost a year of terrible press. And it will allow him to juxtapose himself against the GOP on a crucial issue (abortion) that is toxic to them outside of the South. It will help motivate young, Dem voters to turnout in places where their votes can provide an edge - swing states like AZ, NV, WI, PA, and prolly helps Tina Kotek a lot in Oregon, definitely Pritzker and Hochul, and in suburban swing districts. The only back side is that it will complicate things a lot where there are lots of evangelicals, potentially blunting Democrats efforts in the South, places like Georgia and Texas, maybe even places like Iowa.

If Biden can hold true on his promise, i.e. keep Manchin and Sinema in line, he can nominate a Black woman SCOTUS judge, which will represent at least one kept promise to a key constituency. Little things like that, some student loan forgiveness, maybe some good news on marijuana can turn around his approvals with young people enough to temper the red wave. But his political instincts suck and I'm not sure he is gonna do anything like that. He could very well nominate some uninspiring nobody to the bench and squander this opportunity too. It is Joe Biden

[kwabbit]

Probably Democrats. The Kavanaugh battle energized Republicans in 2018 and potentially allowed them to flip MO, IN, and ND.

If the Republicans were wise they’d silently oppose the nomination and hope for Democratic infighting to sink the nominee. If the Democrats are unified, then don’t try to fight the nomination, just let it pass through and it won’t affect the midterms. If they fight it too hard, the nominee will still make it onto the court but then you will have fired up the completely unenthusiastic Democratic base.

There might be enough acrimony between Sinema or Manchin and the rest of the party where it could become ugly again. Sinema in particular seems to not care about being on good terms with her colleagues and the attacks on her have been vicious of late.

[Lemmiwinks]

Neither. It's like Kagan in 2010.

[Lambsbread]

If the nominee is confirmed prior to the midterms, it will have no impact. If not, it will benefit Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

Neither. It's like Kagan in 2010.

Agreed. Breyer's retirement will not change the ideological balance on the Court, as he will be succeeded by another liberal. And Brown-Jackson, who Biden will likely nominate, is a relatively inoffensive candidate who should enjoy the support of the entire Democratic caucus and will be confirmed without much difficulty.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Dems. Biden's central problem rn is that his approvals are terrible with indy voters, and to punish him they are gonna vote GOP. This retirement gives him a positive press coverage opportunity after almost a year of terrible press. And it will allow him to juxtapose himself against the GOP on a crucial issue (abortion) that is toxic to them outside of the South. It will help motivate young, Dem voters to turnout in places where their votes can provide an edge - swing states like AZ, NV, WI, PA, and prolly helps Tina Kotek a lot in Oregon, definitely Pritzker and Hochul, and in suburban swing districts. The only back side is that it will complicate things a lot where there are lots of evangelicals, potentially blunting Democrats efforts in the South, places like Georgia and Texas, maybe even places like Iowa.

If Biden can hold true on his promise, i.e. keep Manchin and Sinema in line, he can nominate a Black woman SCOTUS judge, which will represent at least one kept promise to a key constituency. Little things like that, some student loan forgiveness, maybe some good news on marijuana can turn around his approvals with young people enough to temper the red wave. But his political instincts suck and I'm not sure he is gonna do anything like that. He could very well nominate some uninspiring nobody to the bench and squander this opportunity too. It is Joe Biden

I disagree with this premise on several accounts.
1. Just because a chunk of people have a soft approval of limited abortion does not mean Dems win on the issue. Republicans care way more about it than Dem’s. Anybody who is passionately pro-choice is already liberal on climate change, immigration, student debt, or any number of issues that make them turn out and vote blue every single cycle. There are no strongly abortion approving but otherwise strongly conservative voters and the ones who do exist just ignore it and vote republican anyways. But there are swaths of republicans who will literally boycott the election or consider a moderate Dem if the GOP doesn’t run a pro-life campaign. We see this distinction in exit polls where republicans win the vote of people who vote on abortion.
2. Having partisan Dems excited is not the same thing as ramping up turnout. Not everybody is as engaged as Atlas users. A low participation Dem friendly voter really doesn’t care that much about Biden picking one liberal justice to replace another liberal justice. It has zero net impact on their lives. These low participation voters might not even understand or care what the Supreme Court does. Of the ones that do, they just want the justices to be fair and not political.

3. There’s no way for republicans to be politically exposed when the ball is in the Dems court. If anything, they can benefit by Susan Collins and other “nice” republican types pretending to be bipartisan and confirming while RoJo types go on Fox News and fear-monger about this leading to court packing and anarchy.

[ElectionsGuy]

The idea that this is supposed to increase Dems chances is about as valid as Kavanaugh saving R's from a 2018 blue wave. It might've helped expose just how partisan the Dems were in those red states that should've never been there, and help oust them, but that's about it. Republicans don't have any equivalents to that in 2022 however. Johnson is the only incumbent in a Biden state and yet it's so marginally Biden that voting against this nominee isn't going to hurt him more than the countless other things Dems will attack him on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's obviously, Abrams, Barnes, Chambers and Warnock are running in competetive races

[MATTROSE94]

I think Republicans. Supreme Court confirmation battles energize the red team more than the blue team. I fully believe that had Ruth Bader Ginsburg not died when she did, Thom Tillis at least would no longer be a Senator.

I agree about Thom Tillis, as his COVID diagnosis caused by the ACB nomination ceremony, as well as the fact that he played a prominent role in the hearings, may have been enough to pull him over the finish line.

[MT Treasurer]

The West Virginia Republican Party (in 2024)

[LordLarry]

Neither. I don't see why another appointment would cause much controversy.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It's going to re-enforce the gutting of Roe. The momentum will swing back to the pro-choice side, and people who only voted Republican to keep their taxes low will start voting Democratic. If inflation recedes and the midterm is centered around SCOTUS, Democrats could narrow their losses significantly and maybe even retain the House if inflation goes down (that is obviously a big if).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The West Virginia Republican Party (in 2024)

An expectation that Manchin would vote for any Democratic SCOTUS nominee would be priced in to the WV-SEN 2024 result even if no SCOTUS vacancy were to occur. Based on this, Manchin will not be measurably worse off after voting to confirm a replacement to Breyer, and will only be doomed to an equal level as he was before.

[morgieb]

Too early to have a real effect unless the fight gets nasty. In which case it might maybe galvanise some Dems, but probably not significantly.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The West Virginia Republican Party (in 2024)

An expectation that Manchin would vote for any Democratic SCOTUS nominee would be priced in to the WV-SEN 2024 result even if no SCOTUS vacancy were to occur. Based on this, Manchin will not be measurably worse off after voting to confirm a replacement to Breyer, and will only be doomed to an equal level as he was before.

I disagree. Manchin's pretty good (under these circumstances) approval ratings are because of his moderate image and the tons of articles effectively promoting him as someone who won't just back party line. Voting to confirm a justice who will be labelled as far-left by Republicans will hurt this reputation for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Too early to have a real effect unless the fight gets nasty. In which case it might maybe galvanise some Dems, but probably not significantly.

Lol it benefits out Blk candidates Chambers with multiple candidates aare gonna hold Kennedy to under 60 a Runoff is possible, Warnock and Barnes and Stacy Abrams benefit and CCM and Hassan

Did you hear Rick Scott reaction, he said D's are gonna lose because they're voting for a Blk candidates he needs to be defeated by Gwen Graham in 24 he isn't Rubio or DeSantis

[Roll Roons]

Also, it's not clear if the Barrett nomination was a net positive for Trump in the end. Bear in mind that the Rose Garden event was likely where Trump got COVID.

[MillennialModerate]

No difference because it doesn’t change the balance of the court.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Too early to have a real effect unless the fight gets nasty. In which case it might maybe galvanise some Dems, but probably not significantly.

This. It depends on whom Biden nominates and how the nomination process goes. On average I expect a wash, but voted R, because muh Dems in disarray.

[SWE]

No difference. The court is a 6-3 far-right majority, one of the liberals from the minority is going to be replaced by another liberal, and the far-right will control the bench for the rest of our lifetimes. The stakes aren't particularly high.

[ElectionsGuy]

No difference. The court is a 6-3 far-right majority, one of the liberals from the minority is going to be replaced by another liberal, and the far-right will control the bench for the rest of our lifetimes. The stakes aren't particularly high.

Today I learned John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh are far-right.