Which party benefits electorally from Breyer's retirement?

[coloradocowboi]

Dems. Biden's central problem rn is that his approvals are terrible with indy voters, and to punish him they are gonna vote GOP. This retirement gives him a positive press coverage opportunity after almost a year of terrible press. And it will allow him to juxtapose himself against the GOP on a crucial issue (abortion) that is toxic to them outside of the South. It will help motivate young, Dem voters to turnout in places where their votes can provide an edge - swing states like AZ, NV, WI, PA, and prolly helps Tina Kotek a lot in Oregon, definitely Pritzker and Hochul, and in suburban swing districts. The only back side is that it will complicate things a lot where there are lots of evangelicals, potentially blunting Democrats efforts in the South, places like Georgia and Texas, maybe even places like Iowa.

If Biden can hold true on his promise, i.e. keep Manchin and Sinema in line, he can nominate a Black woman SCOTUS judge, which will represent at least one kept promise to a key constituency. Little things like that, some student loan forgiveness, maybe some good news on marijuana can turn around his approvals with young people enough to temper the red wave. But his political instincts suck and I'm not sure he is gonna do anything like that. He could very well nominate some uninspiring nobody to the bench and squander this opportunity too. It is Joe Biden

[coloradocowboi]

The idea that this is supposed to increase Dems chances is about as valid as Kavanaugh saving R's from a 2018 blue wave. It might've helped expose just how partisan the Dems were in those red states that should've never been there, and help oust them, but that's about it. Republicans don't have any equivalents to that in 2022 however. Johnson is the only incumbent in a Biden state and yet it's so marginally Biden that voting against this nominee isn't going to hurt him more than the countless other things Dems will attack him on.

IIRC Claire McCaskill was leading in polls until Kavanaugh? And I know I do recall correctly that the “enthusiasm gap” in polls between Ds and Rs did close. So, I’m not really sure that factually you have a lot of ground to stand on with that claim.