Breyer retirement Megathread

[Ferguson97]

Side-note, I feel like this is an insane amount of retirements/deaths to happen in such a short span of time...

Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, and Breyer in just six years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hot take: Manchin will pull a McConnell and claim that a 50-50 split Senate shouldn't confirm a SC justice, only one with a clear majority.

[SteveRogers]

Ketanji Brown Jackson, probably. I've made my peace with the fact that she's probably not going to be confirmed.

She got 53 votes like 7 months ago. Relax.

Are you seriously trying to tell me you believe she'll get 53 votes again? 50+VP, if we're lucky, and probably more like 48.

No. Graham probably flips because he has no spine. Collins and Murkowski probably still vote for her though. There’s no indication that Manchin and Sinema are interested in tanking a SCOTUS nomination. They’re annoying but fairly predictable.

[Suburbia]

The last white male liberal to be on the Court. Period.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

YES! THANK YOU GOD!

Ketanji Brown Jackson, probably. I've made my peace with the fact that she's probably not going to be confirmed.

why do you think Brown Jackson wouldn't be confirmed?

She's too culturally marxist for a senator from West Virginia to vote for.

He already did vote for her.

For a lower level court that nobody cares about.

D.C. Circuit is definitely something Senators care about. I'll remind you that that was literally the site of the vacancy battle that caused the Nuclear option to be invoked in 2013. It's essentially the second most important court in the country, after of course the Supreme Court.

She probably won't get 53 votes again, but she should still be fine to get to 50 + VP, and there is eons of time before Majority Leader McConnell's potential swearing in on 1/3/2023. I look forward to the nomination, which I believe I will be able to endorse.

[SnowLabrador]

Please be true.

[Sestak]

Side-note, I feel like this is an insane amount of retirements/deaths to happen in such a short span of time...

Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, and Breyer in just six years.

Those are four of the six(!) justices nominated between 1986-1994; this is 30 years after that period so to be expected (the other two are HW’s nominees; Souter retired early while Thomas is still on the Court).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Please be true.

It's all over the news: https://www.npr.org/2022/01/26/1075781724/justice-stephen-breyer-supreme-court-retires

[WV222]

Starting a megathread to track the process to picking and confirming a Supreme Court Justice in the wake of Justice Stephen Breyer's retirement.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1486384840178032642

[lfromnj]

The last white male liberal to be on the Court. Period.

Hmm unlike Bronz's claims about stuff like Biden being the last white male Democrat this might be somewhat true atleast for a few decades. The donor base is more interested in this on either side than the voters.

[lfromnj]

Kentaji Brown Jackson
/thread

[Sestak]

Ketanji Brown Jackson, probably. I've made my peace with the fact that she's probably not going to be confirmed.

She got 53 votes like 7 months ago. Relax.

Are you seriously trying to tell me you believe she'll get 53 votes again? 50+VP, if we're lucky, and probably more like 48.

No. Graham probably flips because he has no spine. Collins and Murkowski probably still vote for her though. There’s no indication that Manchin and Sinema are interested in tanking a SCOTUS nomination. They’re annoying but fairly predictable.

I could see Murkowski flipping given she’s running for re-election in Alaska’s current weird system; though tbh I have no idea what general strategy she’s going to try to pursue there.

[I’m not Stu]

Ketanji Brown Jackson?

[PSOL]

Alright, so a New Democratic justice is imminent before the midterms. This is somewhat positive compared to any alternatives.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Side-note, I feel like this is an insane amount of retirements/deaths to happen in such a short span of time...

Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, and Breyer in just six years.

It's more that the late Rehnquist and early Roberts Courts had an unusually stable composition. I think 1994-2005 (Breyer's appointment to Rehnquist's death) was the longest period with the same SCOTUS lineup in history. Nixon appointed four justices from 1969 to 1971, Ike five from 1954 to 1959, FDR nine from 1937 to 1943.

The last white male liberal to be on the Court. Period.

This is a bronz posf

[Calthrina950]

Side-note, I feel like this is an insane amount of retirements/deaths to happen in such a short span of time...

Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, and Breyer in just six years.

Those are four of the six(!) justices nominated between 1986-1994; this is 30 years after that period so to be expected (the other two are HW’s nominees; Souter retired early while Thomas is still on the Court).

Thomas will probably be on the Court for at least another decade. I believe it's his goal to become the longest-serving member of the Court in it's history.

[Ferguson97]

Ketanji Brown Jackson, probably. I've made my peace with the fact that she's probably not going to be confirmed.

She got 53 votes like 7 months ago. Relax.

Are you seriously trying to tell me you believe she'll get 53 votes again? 50+VP, if we're lucky, and probably more like 48.

No. Graham probably flips because he has no spine. Collins and Murkowski probably still vote for her though. There’s no indication that Manchin and Sinema are interested in tanking a SCOTUS nomination. They’re annoying but fairly predictable.

I could see Murkowski flipping given she’s running for re-election in Alaska’s current weird system; though tbh I have no idea what general strategy she’s going to try to pursue there.

Alaska politics are "independent" enough that this shouldn't hurt her IMO.

[Suburbia]

No straight white men need apply

It's gonna be a Black woman. Period. A liberal Black

[Ferguson97]

Kentaji Brown Jackson
/thread

[Zendstrummer]

No straight white men need apply

It's gonna be a Black woman. Period. A liberal Black

You’re racist and sexist

[Calthrina950]

No straight white men need apply

It's gonna be a Black woman. Period. A liberal Black

I've been watching an ABC News Special Report about Breyer's retirement, and they showed pictures of possible contenders for Breyer's seat. All are black women, and Biden has promised to nominate a black woman to the Supreme Court. It is long overdue.

[brucejoel99]

Will his retirement formally take effect when the Court recesses at the end of June, or upon the confirmation of a successor?

Anyway, it'll be KBJ but I hope it's Kruger: she'd put somebody with state supreme court experience on the Court & is 6 years younger than KBJ.

[Zendstrummer]

He should appoint Roy Moore.

[I’m not Stu]

Does he step down before the term ends?

[Del Tachi]

Pretty certain Biden will get 52 or 53 votes for his nominee (assuming nothing goes awry.)  If things go really well we could get close to 56 or 57, even