Court of Appeals Ideological Leanings

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, the 4th has clearly overtaken the 9th as of the late Obama-Trump era. Trump came within a couple active judges of "flipping" the 9th and almost surely would have "flipped" it in a 2nd term.  However, a couple of the older R appointees there are quite moderate.

Obama came very close to "flipping" the 11th.  I think it even had a one-seat Dem-appointed majority in 2016 but with a known conservadem?

Interesting that the New England 1st Circuit never got the same uber-liberal reputation as the West Coast 9th.

[Skill and Chance]

Curious where this may go with Democrats retaining the Senate.

Younger Republican appointees who have not taken senior status are very "packed" into the 8th circuit (several Upper Midwest/Northern Plains states) and 5th circuit (Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi), which are 11R/1D and 8R/4D, respectively.  The 1st circuit (New England and Puerto Rico) is unanimous Dem, but it is much smaller (6D/0R).  The other circuits generally have one party or the other leading by a judge or 2.  It seems likely that Democratic appointees would have a majority on all federal circuits but the 5th and 8th by the end of Biden's term, assuming the senate majority stays Dem to the end and they are all willing to confirm Biden judges all the way through to the end of 2024.