Rate Orange County, CA in a non-Trump race

[Schiff for Senate]

I think any Rep other than Trump and maybe Ted Cruz could've won it in 2016 and even in 2020 if Clinton was the incumbent, but I think it's too far gone for it to vote Rep. Maybe if a Sununu or Hogan type win the nomination it could vote as a last hurrah of types, before becoming safe D. I doubt someone like Hawley, Carlson, or DeSantis would be able to carry it. After all it voted against the Newsom recall, which means that unlike Virginia, it didn't bounce back once Trump left office. I'll rate it lean D, but closer to likely than tossup.

What?

[Schiff for Senate]

I think any Rep other than Trump and maybe Ted Cruz could've won it in 2016 and even in 2020 if Clinton was the incumbent, but I think it's too far gone for it to vote Rep. Maybe if a Sununu or Hogan type win the nomination it could vote as a last hurrah of types, before becoming safe D. I doubt someone like Hawley, Carlson, or DeSantis would be able to carry it. After all it voted against the Newsom recall, which means that unlike Virginia, it didn't bounce back once Trump left office. I'll rate it lean D, but closer to likely than tossup.

What?

Some people want Tucker to run for president and if he hypothetically wins the nomination, I doubt he'd carry OC.

It's unlikely Carlson runs and if he runs it's unlikely he wins the nomination. DeSantis is a much likelier nominee. But fair enough.