Rate Orange County, CA in a non-Trump race
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  Rate Orange County, CA in a non-Trump race
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Poll
Question: If the 2024 election is between Biden and a non-Trump Republican, how would you rate Orange County?
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tossup / Tilt D
 
#5
Tossup / Tilt R
 
#6
Lean R
 
#7
Likely R
 
#8
Safe R
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Rate Orange County, CA in a non-Trump race  (Read 1179 times)
John Dule
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« on: January 22, 2022, 01:19:54 PM »

Orange County has voted for Democrats in the past two elections-- but is this trend to stay, or is it merely a reaction against Trump, whose populism is a spectacularly poor fit for the county? Would a DeSantis candidacy return OC to its Republican roots?
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Kamala’s side hoe
khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2022, 01:28:29 PM »

Safe D probability, Likely D percentage margin.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2022, 01:45:02 PM »

Likely D. Meaning in a landslide it would flip but otherwise it votes D.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2022, 01:46:17 PM »

If Republicans nominate Richard Nixon’s ghost, it will be likely R.
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THG
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2022, 03:46:09 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2022, 03:54:43 PM by THG »

Orange County has voted for Democrats in the past two elections-- but is this trend to stay, or is it merely a reaction against Trump, whose populism is a spectacularly poor fit for the county? Would a DeSantis candidacy return OC to its Republican roots?

Hot Take: DeSantis wins Riverside, but not OC.

I think that OC would be somewhere between Lean to Likely D, anyways. It isn’t going to be Safe D in 2024 with a non-Trump candidate unless all the Republicans there literally flee to Texas.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2022, 03:54:58 PM »

Likely D only because I have a very high bar to rate anything safe. OC voted for San Fran liberal for Governor in 2018 and 3 years later it voted to retain him by a larger margin. Voter Registration is stampeding more Democratic. This is not your fathers OC.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2022, 04:48:37 PM »

Orange County has voted for Democrats in the past two elections-- but is this trend to stay, or is it merely a reaction against Trump, whose populism is a spectacularly poor fit for the county? Would a DeSantis candidacy return OC to its Republican roots?

Why exactly is populism a bad fit for Orange County?
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John Dule
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« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2022, 05:41:08 PM »

Orange County has voted for Democrats in the past two elections-- but is this trend to stay, or is it merely a reaction against Trump, whose populism is a spectacularly poor fit for the county? Would a DeSantis candidacy return OC to its Republican roots?

Why exactly is populism a bad fit for Orange County?

Orange County is highly educated, and populism appeals to stupid people.
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2022, 07:41:52 PM »

Remember that Obama kept his losing margins in this county to single digits, which none of his predecessors as Democratic presidential nominees between Truman and Kerry were able to do. This means that even without Trump, Republicans would still be on borrowed time here if they haven’t already lost it outright.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2022, 08:14:34 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2022, 08:26:13 PM by Everyone Needs Jesus Christ »

I think any Rep other than Trump and maybe Ted Cruz could've won it in 2016 and even in 2020 if Clinton was the incumbent, but I think it's too far gone for it to vote Rep. Maybe if a Sununu or Hogan type win the nomination it could vote as a last hurrah of types, before becoming safe D. I doubt someone like Hawley, Carlson, or DeSantis would be able to carry it. After all it voted against the Newsom recall, which means that unlike Virginia, it didn't bounce back once Trump left office. I'll rate it lean D, but closer to likely than tossup.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2022, 08:15:56 PM »

In all seriousness, safe D.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2022, 08:23:51 PM »

I think any Rep other than Trump and maybe Ted Cruz could've won it in 2016 and even in 2020 if Clinton was the incumbent, but I think it's too far gone for it to vote Rep. Maybe if a Sununu or Hogan type win the nomination it could vote as a last hurrah of types, before becoming safe D. I doubt someone like Hawley, Carlson, or DeSantis would be able to carry it. After all it voted against the Newsom recall, which means that unlike Virginia, it didn't bounce back once Trump left office. I'll rate it lean D, but closer to likely than tossup.

What?
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2022, 08:26:51 PM »

I think any Rep other than Trump and maybe Ted Cruz could've won it in 2016 and even in 2020 if Clinton was the incumbent, but I think it's too far gone for it to vote Rep. Maybe if a Sununu or Hogan type win the nomination it could vote as a last hurrah of types, before becoming safe D. I doubt someone like Hawley, Carlson, or DeSantis would be able to carry it. After all it voted against the Newsom recall, which means that unlike Virginia, it didn't bounce back once Trump left office. I'll rate it lean D, but closer to likely than tossup.

What?

Some people want Tucker to run for president and if he hypothetically wins the nomination, I doubt he'd carry OC.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2022, 08:31:41 PM »

I think any Rep other than Trump and maybe Ted Cruz could've won it in 2016 and even in 2020 if Clinton was the incumbent, but I think it's too far gone for it to vote Rep. Maybe if a Sununu or Hogan type win the nomination it could vote as a last hurrah of types, before becoming safe D. I doubt someone like Hawley, Carlson, or DeSantis would be able to carry it. After all it voted against the Newsom recall, which means that unlike Virginia, it didn't bounce back once Trump left office. I'll rate it lean D, but closer to likely than tossup.

What?

Some people want Tucker to run for president and if he hypothetically wins the nomination, I doubt he'd carry OC.

It's unlikely Carlson runs and if he runs it's unlikely he wins the nomination. DeSantis is a much likelier nominee. But fair enough.
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2022, 09:34:37 PM »

Orange County has voted for Democrats in the past two elections-- but is this trend to stay, or is it merely a reaction against Trump, whose populism is a spectacularly poor fit for the county? Would a DeSantis candidacy return OC to its Republican roots?

Why exactly is populism a bad fit for Orange County?

Orange County is highly educated, and populism appeals to stupid people.

I spit my drink out at this, thanks.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2022, 10:39:36 PM »

Democrat by around 8%. Really the only way the Republican can win OC now is if they nominate the ghosts of Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, or Ronald Reagan.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2022, 02:42:46 PM »

Lean D in a best case GOP scenario. Sorry, but OC is gone for republicans.

Now MAYBE they can pick off Riverside and San Bernardino.

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THG
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« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2022, 03:50:15 PM »

Lean D in a best case GOP scenario. Sorry, but OC is gone for republicans.

Now MAYBE they can pick off Riverside and San Bernardino.



This.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2022, 03:55:11 PM »

Pretty much Safe D. I'd say Stanislaus is the most likely Democratic county to flip.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2022, 04:34:51 PM »

OC would go Republican in a national popular vote victory for the GOP, unlikely otherwise
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bayareabay
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« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2022, 05:50:36 PM »

Orange County's Republican strength mostly comes from wealthy, white beach towns which are smaller than democratic population centers of Anaheim or Santa Ana. The math doesn't add up for a GOP victory anymore.
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