2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[John]

Bush will Carry the Same States as he did in 2000 but Pick Up Iowa & Minn

[John]

The Election will be Deacied by the People with 53% to Bush & Dean 45%

[John]

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41

[John]

Let the People Chose who they want in the White House in November 4 2004 i want Bush but if dose win thats fine too

[John]

People will chose who they want to put States in the bush Side or Democarts Side

[John]

Bush Might win the Same States he won in 2000 & Pick Up Three or More States like Iowa, MINN, Wiscons, That's the best i could spelled

[John]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 349 to Kerry 189.

Nice Map you did a good Job on it

[John]

Dean will lose to kerry in NH Tuesday Night & he will drop out becuse he was not a good guy after all

[John]

Welcome
I Like what you say but i will vote for bush but i will until the People chose who they want

[John]

Here are my
Bush wins 32 States Picks up Iowa Minnestoa And Califrona & the rest goes to kerry

[John]

Hi folks, here are my early thoughts on 2004, I've made state by state comments where required... I've included the 2000 general election results as a guide

SOLID DEMOCRATIC

Baring a blowout of Reagan like proportions, these should go democratic

District of Columbia   - 3 EVs - Gore was + 76.20%
Rhode Island - 4 EVs - Gore was + 29.08%
Massachusetts - 12 EVs - Gore was +27.30%
New York - 31 EVs - Gore was +24.98%
Hawaii - 4 EVs - Gore was +18.33%
Connecticut - 7 EVs - Gore was +17.47%
Maryland - 10 EVs - Gore was +16.39%
New Jersey -15 EVs - Gore was +15.83%
Delaware - 3 EVs - Gore was +13.06%
Illinois - 21 EVs - Gore was +   12.01%
California - 55 EVs - Gore was +  11.80%
Vermont - 3 EVs - Gore was +  9.94%

SOLID DEMOCRATIC - 165 EVs

BATTLEGROUND STATES - LEAN DEMOCRATIC

Washington   11 - EVs - Gore was +5.58%

A very interesting state.  In 2000 The Democrats won the Senate seat by about 2000 votes, despite only carrying 2 of 68 counties.
Huge Democratic turnout in King County (Seatle) carried both the Senate seat and the State for the Democrats.

The Gay Marraige issue really hurts Bush in Seattle, but really helps everywhere else.  All the extra military spending helps Bush as you get further away from the Coast.  

Over the last few cycles this state is actuallly mildly tending GOP

I tentatively lean this one to the Democrats, but I suspect the margin will be less than in 2000 - Keep this state on your watch list

Michigan      17   EVs - Gore was +5.13%

Rust belt state has been pounded as US auto production shifts from Unionized big 3 auto plants in the Rust Belt, to Non-Union non- big 3 plants in the South - Kerry and the Dems wins this state going away...

Maine      4   EVs - Gore was +-5.11%

Trivia about Maine - allows for a split electoral college vote, who ever carries each of Maine's 2 house districts gets 1 EV, and the overall state winner gets the other 2.  The GOP has a very strong chance of picking up Maine2 this cycle, so I will make a quirky prediction and say that Kerry gets 3 EVs and Bush gets 1...

Pennsylvania   21   EVs - Gore was +-4.17%

Everything I said about MIchigan, but more so....

Oregon      7   EVs - Gore was +0.44%

Politically a very weird state.  Somebody once defined Oregon as a place that supports the Death penaly... but only if the electric chair is solar powered...  

Softwood Lumber dispute with Canada gives Bush some advantage here due to Bush Tariffs,... historically too close to call...  Will leave it with the Dems for now..

Wisconsin   10   EVs - Gore was +0.22%

Semi-Rust Belt state (curdled cheese?)...think this one stays in the Dems column

New Mexico   5   EVs - Gore was +0.06%

Growing Hispanic Vote helps the Dems, may be partly offset by Gay Marraige issue as most Hispanics tend to be social conservatives.

Too close to call, but I'll leave this one in the Dem column,   Bill Richardson is a Democratic Governor, but in reality, flip a coin....

New Hampshire   4 EVs   Bush was +1.27%

Bush took a huge pounding during the Democratic primary, and state hurt bad by high tech outsourcing.  This one flips to the Dems.

Ohio   20 EVs   Bush was +3.51%

This state will be very, very close.  It may even be 2004's Florida.
As a rust belt state that has taken it on the chin - I'll tentatively put this one in the Democratic column. - If your a Republican, Ohioi for the DEms has GOT to hurt - No GOP candidate has won the Presidency without Ohio duriing the entire 20th century...

West Virginia   5 EVs - Bush was +6.32%

2000 was an anomaly over the coal issue.  Back to the Dems

LEAN DEMOCRATIC - 103 EVs (took one off for Maine)
SOLID DEMOCRATIC - 165 EVS
TOTAL - 268 EVs

BATTLEGROUND - LEAN GOP

Minnesota   10   EVs - Gore was +2.40%

Tending GOP gradually, GOP took the Senate seat in 2000, GOP state party much better organized and mobilized than before.  I will give this on to Bush & the GOP... Hmmm.. GOOP has a shot in Minnesota... they times they ARE a changing...

Iowa      7   EVs - Gore was +0.31%

Buchanan cost Bush this state in 2000, it was so close that Buchanan being out of the race may tilt it to Bush, also the whole military scene helps Bush, plus the Gay Marraige thing

I'll Give this one to Bush and the GOP

Missouri   11   Bush was +3.34%

No Carnahan sysmpathy vote, no Ashcroft, and hopefully no unusual goings on in St. Loius.  Bush should hold.

Florida   27 EVs - 0.01%

Brother Jeb won big in 2002, plus the elderly factor HELPS bush.  Bush actually won the +65 vote 50/46 in 2000.  The elderly actually break into two groups the young seniors (under 70) who tend GOP fairly strongly, and the old seniors (over 70) who are strongly Democratic.  Naturally, the +70s are dying off faster than the under 70s...

Nevada   5 EVs - Bush was +3.55%

State is getting very very close as Las Vegas grows and become more of a typical big city, it helps the Dems.  I'll leave it GOP for now, but DEFINITELY on the watch list

Tennessee   11 EVs Bush was +3.86%

Tennessee is a GOP state now.  Gore couldn't even carry his home state.  This puppy ain't even close any more.

Arkansas   6 EVs - Bush was +5.44%

Same as Tennessee

Arizona   10 EVs - Bush was +6.28%

A lot like Nevada in terms of demographic changes - I'll leave it GOP for now, but also on the watch list.

TOTAL BATTLEGROUND LEAN GOP - 87 EVs + 1 for Maine = 88

SOLID GOP STATES

Louisiana   9 EVs - Bush was +7.68%
Virginia   13 EVs - Bush was +8.04%
Colorado   9 EVs - Bush was +8.36%
Georgia   15 EVs - Bush was +11.69%

Some Dems say it will be close - I have a one word reply -Zel Miller...

North Carolina   15 EVs - Bush was +12.83%
Alabama   9 EVs - Bush was +14.88%
Kentucky   8 EVs - Bush was +15.13%
Indiana   11 EVs - Bush was +15.63%
South Carolina   8  EVs - Bush was + 15.93%
Mississippi   6  EVs - Bush was +16.91%
Kansas   6    EVs - Bush was +20.80%
Texas   34 EVs - Bush was + 21.32%
Oklahoma   7 EVs - Bush was + 21.88%
South Dakota   3  EVs - Bush was +22.73%
Montana   3  EVs - Bush was + 25.07%
North Dakota   3  EVs - Bush was + 27.60%
Nebraska   5  EVs - Bush was + 28.99%
Alaska   3 EVs - Bush was +30.95%
Idaho   4 EVs - Bush was + 39.53%
Wyoming   3 EVs - Bush was +40.06%
Utah   5 EVs - Bush was +40.49%

SOLID GOP = 182 EVs
TOTAL BATTLEGROUND LEAN GOP - 87 EVs + 1 for Maine = 88

BUSH WINS 270/268 in the Electoral College

I Like that it is a Show down what will Happen

[John]

My current prediction:



A bit heretical I suppose... but I like thinking for myself...

I Think That Map is Great

[John]

I THINK BUSH IS GOING TO WIN A CLOSE BUT FAIR ELECTION BY PICK UP 3 STATES
WI
PA
POSSBLE OROGAN

[John]

BUSH WILL WIN A CLOSE ONE
327 EC VOTES FOR BUSH CARRYING PA,WI,
211 EC VOTES FOR KERRY

[John]

DID YOU PEOPLE LOOK AT THE POLL IN OHIO
BUSH IS TROUBLE THERE IF HE DOSE NOT WHEN THEIR HE IS IN BIG
KERRY: 49%
BUSH: 42%
NADER: 2%
UD: 7%
WITHOUT NADER
KERRY: 50%
BUSH: 43%