2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[ElectionAtlas]

This topic is to re-start the discussions around the user predictions located at the 2004 Prediction page.  I have created another topic to discuss the technical issues with the feature.

[Ryan]

Dave, it may be a little too late to suggest changes in color-coding for your map repeating 2000 results, but I found the shades to red associated with >50  and >60 to be too similar.
Also since the difference between getting 50.16% (Washington) and getting 54.60% (Illinois)  in the last election makes all the difference with regard to predicting competitiveness in the next election, Might I suggest having more than one category for 50-60%?

As to the predictive maps, I myself plan to have four completely different colors
Solid Republican – Dark Blue
Lean Republican – Light Blue
Tossup  - White or gray
Lean Democrat – Light Red
Solid Democrat– Dark Red

[Ryan]

Well I seem to be obsessed with colors today. :)Darthkosh you seem to have mixed up Red and Blue states by assigning Red to the GOp and vice versa.

I was much shocked to see your map before I realised this

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow! The Dems pick up Utah and the GOP picks up Rhode Island

[DarthKosh]

Wow! The Dems pick up Utah and the GOP picks up Rhode Island

I screwed up.  Just look at the ev cout for now and i will get around to changing it.

[DarthKosh]

Well I seem to be obsessed with colors today. :)Darthkosh you seem to have mixed up Red and Blue states by assigning Red to the GOp and vice versa.

I was much shocked to see your map before I realised this

I just relized I did that.

[DarthKosh]

I fixed it and it looks like Bush won't win Rhode Island.

[Ryan]

Well people, I have some good news and bad news as regards my map. The bad news (perhaps good for some ) is that I feel unable to make my map with useful predictions as of right now.

The main reason is that the Democratic challenger is not yet known. My picks would vary considerably depending upon that factor. I feel uncomfortable deciding upon how states would turn based on a generic democratic candidate when I know full well that I would have to revise them next year. For Instance if Clark wins then Arkansas goes from Lean Rep to Lean Dem. The same applies to West Virginia if Gephardt is the candidate. If Dean wins a whole bunch of tossups become Lean Rep.  

Thus I am not going to put up a map with solid predictions yet. However since the others have taken so much effort on theirs; I feel compelled to make a contribution. I have put up a map detailing the margins of victory in 2000 for the most competitive states (in my opinion).  All other states I expect to remain in the same column as they were in 2000. I trust this will be of use to the others in their analysis. (Please refer to the color key on the right)

I am still in the process of completing my analysis. If I find that there are comparatively few states where it ALL depends on the Dem. nominee I will definitely put up my map in a week or so. Till then, have fun evryone :-)

[Michael Z]

As of now my prediction is based on a scenario where Howard Dean is the Democratic candidate (due to him being the current front runner). However, should the tide turn in favour of another candidate I would change my prediction accordingly. But similar thoughts have definitely crossed my mind, Ryan. It's just that nothing's gonna stop me from taking part in a good ole prediction game.

[Ryan]

Sorry I forgot to post this earlier. Its a really good electoral college calculator. I've found it very useful in my calculations and hope you will too

http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

[Ryan]

Well I've just posted my first prediction map. I can't say I put a lot of faith in it. :-) I haven't assumed a democratic nominee but have tried to consider a "generic" democrat.
Obviously a number of changes will occur in my map depending upon the candidate. For Instance if Clark wins then Arkansas goes from Lean Rep to Lean Dem. The same applies to West Virginia if Gephardt is the candidate. If Dean wins a whole bunch of states like Nevada become Lean Rep.

I'm not going to go too much into detail as to why I have assigned states the way I have but will be happy to field any specific queries.

Remember that the Confidence map is not my picks but is info put up for the benefit of everybody else. I have put up a map detailing the margins of victory in 2000 for the most competitive states. Except for one or two I consider them all to be competitive and not till a Dem nominee is selected can I definitely assign any to the D or R Column. All other states (in yellow) I expect to remain in the same column as they were in 2000. I trust this will be of use to the others in their analysis.

(Please remember to refer to the color key on the right)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a better EV calculator on John Edward's website(!)

[Michael Z]

Yeah, I noticed that too. Well done Edwards, give the man the Presidency.

[Ryan]

Yeah, I noticed that too. Well done Edwards, give the man the Presidency.

LOL yeah he's leading in at least one respect. Btw as to EC calculators I genuinely find Dave's the simplest and easiest to use. I'd recommend it for your calculations.

[Demrepdan]

I'll have to agree, Dave's is the best and simpliest Electoral Vote calcuator to use.

 The most difficult to use?
-Grandma's hand-held solar powered pocket calculator, with only 16 buttons at best...

[MinnyBean]

I submitted my predictions today for the 2004 presidential election.  I am looking forward to electing a Democratic candidate into office.  It is my prediction that whomever is nominated will be the next President.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Including Sharpton

[Kevinstat]

When looking at my prediction map, just imagine the Kentucky and Tennessee colors are reversed, with Kentucky being Bush >60% and Tennessee being Bush >50%.  I had meant to do have it that way originally but I guess my subconscience liked the north-south color difference line between Virginia and Kentucky on the one hand and North Carolina and Tenessee on the other.  I tried to correct it but forgot to give my password and so I decided to just post this disclaimer here.  I think I won't submit a new map until my predictions actually change.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Saratoga2DM]

Here is my oulook for 2004, which is based on the idea of a Dean/Clark ticket vs. Bush.

The Democrats will have a lock on three big states, which are NY, Illinois, and California.  Arkansas maybe on that list because the state tends to go for native sons.  Potential leaners are Washington, PA, Michagan, and much of New England.    

Confidence: 223 EV

The Republicans strongest states are Texas, Indiana, West Virginia, and Georgia.  They seem to have a lock on much of the West, except for Montana, which went to the Dems in 1992.  However, this was because of a strong 3rd party candidate.  
The deep South except for Louisiana and Florida are strongly Republican, and Virginia is a leaner.   Still, if there is a Dean/Clark candidacy then Bush will have a very tough fight ahead of him.

Confidence: 143 EV

Tossups are all over the place, especially in the Midwest, the South, and the Southwest.  In New England the questionable states are Maine and NH.  Oregon is also in this category, so is Nevada and Colorado.  But the biggest tossup states are OHIO and FLORIDA, which are usually swing states.  Clinton got Ohio in '92 and '96 and Bush got it in 2000.  Florida seems to go back and forth between parties.  Bush I got it 1992 and Clinton had it in 1996, and whether or not Bush junior got it in 2000 remains questionable.  I think if one candidate gets both Ohio and Florida then the election is theirs for the taking.   But I still think the election is going to be a very close one.

Confidence: 172 EV  
 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um... did you just say that West Virginia is one of Bush's safest states???

[zorkpolitics]

Update on the predictions:

So far 16 forum members have made predictions and in general are predicting another close election:

Dem Average: 254 EV, Bush Average 284 EV

Indeed, 11 of the 16 predictions are for a close election similar to victories by Kennedy, Carter, Bush II, with <305 EV.

Just two predictions, both for Bush, are for a solid win of the scale seen by Clinton (>370 EV): Beet Juice 373, and htmldon 370.

Interestingly, there is only one landslide predictions of the scale seen by Reagan, Bush I, Nixon, Johnson (>400 EV): Bandit73 prediction of Dem 443

Assuming we actaully know what we are doing, it will be interesting to see if the average predictions steadily move towards the final result, or will the average fluctuate with recent news and poll reuslts?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that it'll fluctuate a lot.

[Saratoga2DM]

Yes, I believe that West Virginia will be a Bush state in 2004 because of the Dems strong environmental agenda.  After all, WV is a major coal mining area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How much do you actually know about either WV or Miners?

[zorkpolitics]

Yes, I believe that West Virginia will be a Bush state in 2004 because of the Dems strong environmental agenda.  After all, WV is a major coal mining area.

The reason Bush won WV in 2000 is because the Democrats have a strong environmental record!
The Clinton environmental policies severely affected the coal mining industry leading to mine shut downs, throwing people out of work, and a economic downturn.  
WV had the second biggest swing of any state from 1996 (Clinton by 15%) to Bush in 2000 (by 6%), a net 21% change.