2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Ben.]

Based on the 2000 contest and the current circumstances in most states by the summer (i.e the democratic convention) this is how I see the states looking. Dean I would say will very probably be the Democratic nominee with Clarke as his running mate. Dean will do poorly in many southern states…but in states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia next to Gephardt he is best placed to exploit traditional blue collar democratic support amongst Union members and those states which went narrowly to Gore should still go to Dean as the Nader vote will almost certainly go to him in a big way.

The Lean Democratic States are going to be easier to win for the republicans than the lean republican states however I stick by my predictions.      


Alabama (9 EV) – Solid Republican    
Alaska  (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Arizona (10 EV) – Lean Republican
Arkansas (6 EV) – Lean Republican
California (55 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Colorado (9 EV) – Lean Republican    
Connecticut (7 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Delaware (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
D.C. (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Florida (27 EV) – Lean Republican    
Georgia (15 EV) – Solid Republican    
Hawaii (4 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Idaho (4 EV) – Solid Republican    
Illinois (21 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Indiana (11 EV) – Solid Republican    
Iowa (7 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Kansas (6 EV) – Solid Republican  
Kentucky (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
Louisiana (9 EV) – Solid Republican  
Maine (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Maryland (10 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Massachusetts (12 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Michigan (17 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Minnesota (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Mississippi (6 EV) – Solid Republican    
Missouri (11 EV) – Lean Republican  
Montana (3 EV) – Lean Republican    
Nebraska (5 EV) – Solid Republican    
Nevada (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Hampshire (4 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Jersey (15 EV) – Solid Democratic      
New Mexico (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New York (31 EV) – SOLID Democratic  
North Carolina (15 EV) – Lean Republican    
North Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Ohio (20 EV) – Lean Republican    
Oklahoma (7 EV) – Solid Republican  
Oregon (7 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Pennsylvania (21 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Rhode Island (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
South Carolina (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
South Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Tennessee (11 EV) – Lean Republican    
Texas (34 EV) – Solid Republican  
Utah (5 EV) – Solid Republican  
Vermont (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Virginia (13 EV) – Solid Republican    
Washington (11 EV) – Lean Democratic    
West Virginia (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wisconsin (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wyoming (3 EV) – Solid Republican  
 
As for Congressional races I wouldn’t expect much change the Democrats will lose in Georgia for sure however Florida and North Carolina will be more competitive. In the North Dean’s troopers and the Union’s will be beating on doors and galvanising the apathetic to vote for Democratic candidates while in the South the GOP will run riot effectively cancelling each other out.

[Ben.]

Had Dean been the nominee… he would have had a similar problem to that which McGovern had he would have had a large part of the Party opposed to his candidacy even when he became the Democrat nominee…I would say that in terms of the Popular vote Dean could have cleared the 40% mark however much beyond that would have been unlikely, so around 42-43% Dean…his performance is only better than Mondale’s in 1984 because of the much more polarised political environment and the fact that the Democrats are now completely locked out of Government for the first time since the 1950’s…

With Kerry you have a good campaigner who has proven himself in his 1996 campaign (where he defeated the “folksy” and “down to earth” governor weld) and in this primary season to be very tenacious and hard working. He has the full backing of the Democratic Party and has gained high voter turnouts across the country which would seem to bode well for him. So what could happen in the “swing states” with Kerry…

Washington: The large Nader vote largely accounts for the closeness of the race here in 2000, this time around a high turn out in Seattle and the other metropolitan coastal towns will mean that this state will be solidly for Kerry.

Oregon: Again the Green vote will be for Kerry here and it should be less close than in 2000 however Bush could pull off an upset though I doubt it.

New Mexico: More marginal than Florida in 2000 and Bush’s attempts to woo Hispanic voters might pay off here…however Gov Richardson could also boost the Dem’s chances… but defiantly a very close contest and with Bush probably having the edge this time around…

Nevada; Last time Bush won by about 4%... traditionally a socially conservative state however the growing Democrat leaning population in Vegas as well as the Yucca Mountain issue will make the race close as recent polls have suggested…But as with NM Bush has the edge…

Missouri: Closes yet not too close a win for Bush in 2000… 50.4% to Gore’s 47.1% while Nader garnered 1.6%... the male catholic vote (which Bush won last time) I would argue will go for Kerry this time and this could deliver Missouri , the successes of Gov  Holden may also be a boost for Kerry, but then again it could simply act as a boost for any incumbent to helping both Bush and Holden…it really depends on who voters here attribute the economic recovery in the state to… I get a sense that Holden will get he credit…but then again I’m biased…

Iowa: A painfully close race here in 2000…however Nader got 2.2% and you can add about 2/3rds of that to the Dem total so a Kerry edge in Iowa…However a large number of GOP congressmen and rural support for Bush will make the race competitive…

Minnesota: A very strong Green vote here last time 5.2% while Gore beat Bush by 2 points… on the basis of that I would say a solid Dem edge in a close race…however the GOP gains in the state in 2002 could help Bush however an evenly divided congressional delegation and the strong Green vote from 2000 (as well as the strong independent showing in the race for Governor) which will probably go to the Democrats should mean that Kerry holds his edge here…but as with Iowa a close contest but a stronger Democratic edge than in Iowa…

Wisconsin: As with the other Midwestern states in 2000 a very close race characterised by a strong Green vote…Unlike Minnisota or Iowa the Dems here are very strong, dominating the Congressional delegation and holding both the senate seats as well as the Governors mansion…Despite the closeness of the 2000 race WI will be more solidly Dem this time around I would argue that the formally green vote along with those voters who voted for Bush as a moderate candidate in 2000 will give Kerry a 4-6% win here…however it will remain a highly competitive race…

Michigan: A solidly Dem state in 2000 an evenly divided congressional delegation with the republicans holding the edge while both Senators are Dems as is the governor… with some bluecollar dissatisfaction with Bush as well as the green voters from 2000 turning to the Dems making Michigan highly likely to remain comfortably Democratic in 2004…

Ohio: Much closer in 2000 than was expected considering how little attention was given it by the Gore campaign…The steel tariffs issue will help then Dems here and winning over male bluecollar voters will also be important for any Dem candidate who hopes to win the state and Kerry’s vet record should help with this however his social liberalism will be a big disadvantage here in a fairly socially conservative state however I would imagine that it will be close and unlike in 2000 will be one of the most hotly contested states in November…

West Virginia: Many have said that it was a surprise that this state was a surprise in 2000… I don’t get that…it’s a socially conservative state with a hankering for economic populism and pork barrel populism, witness Robert Byrd … in 2004 the Democrats will have the disadvantage of a socially liberal candidate and an outgoing governor overshadowed by scandal however the steel tariff issue will mean that this state is still very much in contention and added to this Edward’s neo-populism and guarded support for protectionism might play extremely well with Wes Virginian voters…

Pennsylvania: A surprisingly solid win for Gore in 2000 by 4% over Bush while Nader won 2%... Rendell’s election in 2002 is another boost for the Democrats while the repeal of the steel tariffs will assist in boosting the Democratic vote in the west of the state and the Pittsburgh area, while the same issues that effected the philly mayoral race will help GOTV in the east of the state as will Rendell who is a proven and effective campaigner…Bush’s only hope for a win in PA will be fore low turnouts in the west and east and a very high turnout in the “Z” (or “T” if you like) with Dean as the nominee he had a very good shot at having a low Dem vote in the west of the state and a strong socially conservative vote in the “Z” however while the Socially Conservative vote will still turnout for Bush it will probably be heavily outweighed by the Democratic vote in the west and east of the state…an outside shot for Bush but in my view unlike unless your looking at a very solid almost landslide Bush win…

Florida: Jeb’s solid win in 2000 and the increase in Republican voter registration would suggest that Florida will very probably go to Bush in 2004…a modest increase in the Jewish vote as well as energised republican voters should give the President a solid win here…however where the conservative vote to show a low turnout for Bush (very unlikely) Kerry might be in with a chance so long as the liberal voters in the south as well as the black population turn out in strong numbers… a possibility but very unlikely…

New Hampshire: Nader voters would have given the state to Gore in 2000 and Kerry’s New England roots should help…the very high turnout for the Democratic primary this year would suggest a highly energised Democratic vote and an appeal to independents in the state…a good chance that Kerry could pick up the state this November…However if Bush can appeal to the libertarian inclinations of NH voters (unlikely if you look at his record) particularly in the north of the state he might hold the state however I think that it would be a good bet to say that Kerry will pick the state up…but a highly competitive state with many factors favouring Kerry over Bush…

That’s all Ive got time for at moment… Any thoughts?              

[Ben.]

The only moderate Republican who won't be either spoiled goods (McCain) or too lightweight (Giuliani) who has a shot at the GOP nomination is probably George Pataki...he's been governor of New York since 1994, could be in trouble if Spitzer runs in 06 (at this very early stage Spitzer leads amongst republicans!) so if Pataki doesn’t run in 06 and if Bush has been re-elected goes into the Administration that would place him in a powerful position to go for the GOP nomination....he'd probably be joined by Bill Owens, Bill Frist and Rick Santorum....though Santorum wouldn’t have a prayer outside of the GOP grassroots...if he where nominated which I doubt...

[Ben.]

NH and ME will trend into solidly Democratic states.
The midwest will trend GOP but will still be in play.
Virginia will trend Dem.

Agree's... Basically East v West IS replacing North v South

I would have thought it will be the center vs the coasts?

[Ben.]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

While I reckon a Kerry/Richardson ticket could gain NM and make AZ very competitive beyond that I doubt it would help the Dems… it would probably do little in MO and in the Midwest it would have no effect and it wouldn’t help the Dems in OH, PA or WV… don’t get me wrong… Richardson would have been GREAT! With Edwards at the top of the ticket (a DNC version of what Cheney was for Bush in 2000)… with Kerry he brings little and to all intents and purposes is just another moderately liberal, Washington insider Dem…    

[Ben.]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

While I reckon a Kerry/Richardson ticket could gain NM and make AZ very competitive beyond that I doubt it would help the Dems… it would probably do little in MO and in the Midwest it would have no effect and it wouldn’t help the Dems in OH, PA or WV… don’t get me wrong… Richardson would have been GREAT! With Edwards at the top of the ticket (a DNC version of what Cheney was for Bush in 2000)… with Kerry he brings little and to all intents and purposes is just another moderately liberal, Washington insider Dem…    

I thought Richardson was governor of NM, that doesn't sound too Washington to me?

Yes... but he was energy sec under Clinton and he has a lot experiance working in Washington... added to that he is of a similar age and he is not the most inspiring of Dems... two middle aged, male, carear pols wouldnt be a great idea... you need a moderate with some non-political experaince who would play well with the moderates and independets... Warner, Nelson and Edwards all seem like good choices to me...      

[Ben.]

If the Electoral College deadlocks the House would almost certainly re-elect Bush. Currently 30 states' delegations have Republican majorities with two states evenly split and one (South Dakota) vacant. Since each state gets one vote it would seem unlikely the Democrats could pull it off even if they retake the House as a result of the 2004 elections.

Welcome NewFederalist, and your right if the election is thrown to the house Bush will probably win... though the republican majority in the House and the senate could well narrow... however it will be tough for Dems to retake either...but they can do it 4/1 as opposed to 3/1 for the GOP retaining control and 2/1 for no majority... but hey I not really a gambling man...  
   

[Ben.]

With Richardson:

Kerry will not lose all of the steel states added to that i really doubt that Kerry will lose WI and i think he will be very strong in NH...what would you prediction be with Edwards on the ticket?... furthermore I don’t see AZ and NV going to the Dems just because Richardson is on the ticket... also ultimately i doubt FL will go to Kerry (though it will be close) we will probably be spared a repeat of the "recount debacle"... the results you suggest would really require Kerry to effectively abandon the steel states i doubt that Bush will sweep them the political terrain in all three (OH, PA and WV) favours Kerry and Bush is in for a tough fight in each of them...but Kerry will win PA and OH before he wins WV IMHO...        

[Ben.]

I can see Ohio easliy falling into the Kerry column.  I am on the Kentucky side of the river in Cincinnati, and although Cincinnati is definately "Bush Country",  I do not believe the rest of Ohio will vote that way.  I hope Bush gives Ohio the attention it deserves.  As of last night, Kerry had a 48-46 lead over Bush in Ohio.  A marginal lead at best, and only time will tell.

welcome to the forums klrbzzz!

Where are my manners!.... yeah welcome to the forum... where politics comes alive!... or so I'm told...

[Ben.]

Last one, Kerry/Warner


Kerry 270-268 Bush

I really need to learn how to use pictuers...

[Ben.]

Last one, Kerry/Warner


Kerry 270-268 Bush

I really need to learn how to use pictuers...

It's easy.

How?

[Ben.]

   

Bush/Cheney 350
Kerry/Edwards 188

I find it very unlikely that Bush would enjoy such a sweeping victory...it will all come down to Ohio some are worried about PA... last year polls in PA where similar to where they are now...in fact back then Bush was beating us by 3-4 points!...it (as last time) will take a lot of foot work and plenty of adds but we should hold PA by a similar margin to last time...Michigan and Oregon will not go to Bush either... MN, IA and NM could really go either way (a week ago i would have said Bush will win IA and NM but now I'm not so sure same with MN)... in WI the polls are very good for Kerry considering Gore won in it by just 0.07% last time round... the last poll out from the American Research Group shows Kerry-46%, Bush-43%, Nader-4% in WI... i doubt Nader will have that kinda presence (he just doesn’t have the money or the activist support).... but your being way to generous to Bush he will not effectively sweep all the swing states just wont happen... the one really good thing about Kerry is he is pretty close to what most people see as "generic democrat" and in every poll given a choice better Bush and "generic democrat", generic democrat wins...some dems on this board are way too depressed about the Kerry candidacy...  
 

[Ben.]

Kerry is to a "generic democrat" what Limbaugh is to a "generic republican".

Which Dem pol would you see as a "generic democrat"... you should read the article in this weeks econamist is very good... i really dont see however how you can say that Kerry is as extreem as democrat as Limbaugh is a republican....

[Ben.]

Gephardt is a generic Dem.

But he's way to the left of Kerry? why him?.... i would say if you want a generic dem your looking at Harkin or an older version of Edwards however in alot of voters minds i'd say Kerry is pretty much as they imagine a "generic dem" IMHO...

[Ben.]

Gephardt is to the right of KErry

No he isn’t on trade, on government spending, on taxation, he is very much to Kerry's left (however he is a friend of Kerry's and now a big supporter)...  

[Ben.]

Gephardt is to the right of KErry

Kerry is the 11th most liberal senator... last year he was the most liberal because he wasnt there a whole lot...but as Ive said before Kerry's liberalism is over played... get  this weeks' econamist it got great picece on Kerry...  
No he isn’t on trade, on government spending, on taxation, he is very much to Kerry's left (however he is a friend of Kerry's and now a big supporter)...  

Kerry is the most liberal senate member.
Gephardt is in the center-left among house members.

Economically Gephardt is well to the left of Kerry, Kerry is a senator who supported socail secuirty refrom under Clinton and has on a number of occasions picked fights with organised labour... the only issue where Gephardt is to the right of Kerry is possibly the war in iraq but on foreign policy more generally they are pretty similar...  

[Ben.]

Bush escapes with Colorado, and Kerry narrowly grabs Pennsylvania.  The "T" in Penn might be strong-Bush, but I do not see Pittsburgh and Philly showing Bush any support.

lol on PA... but with Owens and the broad support he enjoys in CO Bush will win there very solidly there, however Salazar will probably win the open senate seat IMHO...  

[Ben.]

I would have voted for McClellan.

Good strategy "States rights"... i think i read in that civil war history by Shelby Foote that McClellan and many northern governors and southern governors favoured a cease fire and a convention of states' governors to negotiate peace... now that could have been interesting...

If my state had seceded I would have backed it all the way back then I reckon not to support slavery… but in that time and in that context I would have fought for the rights of my state not to be dictated to by the federal government… probably reflecting how I think MA can be as liberal as it likes (within reason) and MS or UT as conservative as they like (again within reason) and that generally the federal government should offer a basis for welfare, education healthcare ect… that can be built upon or not and with social issues its up to the voters in those states (generally) IMHO…    

[Ben.]

Bush is going to win by a landslide, and their is nother you democrates can do about it.

No...we've been given our marching orders... if only we realised that Bush was this really great guy like the rest of the nation... sure most of them voted against him in 2000... but now they are penitent... for low the blue states now bleed red with a hundred million dollars of ads... ahhhhh..... we can't do a thing... we just suck so bad....


Clearly you see i might have been expecting a little bit of a better reasoned argument here....

[Ben.]

Bush is going to win by a landslide, and their is nother you democrates can do about it.

No...we've been given our marching orders... if only we realised that Bush was this really great guy like the rest of the nation... sure most of them voted against him in 2000... but now they are penitent... for low the blue states now bleed red with a hundred million dollars of ads... ahhhhh..... we can't do a thing... we just suck so bad....


Clearly you see i might have been expecting a little bit of a better reasoned argument here....

Sorry didn’t get much sleep... trying and failing to get these festival tickets... lower toleration level for that kinda thing... sorry might have gone off the handle... but I stick by saying "that one of the least concise arguments concerning this election I’ve ever heard"... right I’m done now...  

[Ben.]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush 361
Kerry 177

Michigan and Washington are not going to go to Bush other than that its pretty much a best case for Bush (well in a best case as well as adding WA and MI to Kerry I'd add WV to Bush)... but i really don’t see such a wipe out... i think you are underrating Kerry, but then again what the ?$£"&* has he been doing lately he should be on TV all the time when he can't get ads and he should have surrogates on too... but despite all that i think you underrate him..  

[Ben.]

Won't happen

Bush getting 500+ EV's is more likely than Kerry getting 500+.

Wow man you must be getting really depressed about Kerry… it will never happen a solid Bush win (4-6%) is possible, but more likely is a Bush win of say 2-3% and that’s what would happen if the election where tomorrow… but it isn’t… so buck up man!... try and be positive hell I’m not thrilled about Kerry but he will never do that badly…    

[Ben.]

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.

You said it was "heavily Republican", a statement that is untrue.
It's not a good idea to generalise about a state as divided as Tennessee... some of it is extremly conservative, some of it is extremly populist...
---
BTW, although it currently has two GOP Senators, Frist is retiring in 2006 and the Dems have a good chance at picking up the seat (hopefully with Harold Ford jr)... and Lamar Alexander is a "wet" (ie: moderate. The phrase is from the UK) Republican.

Point taken - I overstated the case.  I stand by the strong lean case I made above.  A more interesting question might be - which way is it trending?  I say gradually more GOP.

Opebo I would tend to agree that Tennessee leans solidly to Bush in November… however it is a (very) Probable Bush rather than a solid Bush IMHO… I think that Tennessee is not tending towards either party directly, the growing populations in Nashville, Humboldt and Memphis should help the moderate Dems and more generally there is still a solid base for the Democratic Party but as Al said this is more than countered by the populations in the east of the state and cities such as Tullahoma, Chattanooga and Knoxville, ultimately I think Tennessee will remain a moderately GOP leaning state however this does not mean it is unattainable for the Democrats in the near future, for Kerry I agree it is very much out of reach, but for Harold Ford in 2006 (Please GOD!!!) and perhaps in 2008 (depending on the situation) it will be winnable for the Democrats in a similar way to how PA is winnable for the GOP this November… actually in terms of how both party’s stand TN is a lot like PA reversed, PA has a strong, solid conservative “T” in its centre and GOP victories rest on big turnout here and solid showings in the more moderate suburban areas around Philly and the “blue collar” districts in the west of the state… Likewise Democrat wins in TN depend on a solid turnout in the rural, populist interior of the state, boosted by large turnouts from the minority populations in places such as Memphis and the west of the state and more generally winning in the suburban areas in the north and west of the state… on balance in a match up between generic candidates I’d say both where tossups and will continue to be so imho… however in this election I’d say it would be much easier for the GOP to win PA than for Kerry to take TN…            

[Ben.]

UPDATED Kerry vs. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 51.5%, 306 EV's
Kerry/Edwards 48.0%, 232 EV's

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Kerry could lose the PV by 5% and still win the election; expect Bush to rack up votes in the south.

Pretty much agree, the popular vote I would place closer however, But I think Bush will rack up votes in the south this time, it all comes down to PA and OH really... but imho Kerry will take IA if he takes WI and i expect both states to go for him by slim margins.