The best maps I've seen on this site for Kerry are red on the West coast, dark red in the North east, and some of the other "big states" - but not all, and the interior is still blue for Bush. I have a feeling that Florida will see a lot of activity this year especially in the final weeks as it would be enough to swing it either way if every other state stayed solid for one side or the other. If it came down to a Florida fight though I would favour Bush.
The best possible scenerio for Kerry would be:
Kerry:370
Bush:168
Best possible for Bush:
Bush:355
Kerry:183
The best scenario for Kerry includes also NC and Louisiana.
The best scenario for Bush includes also WA, CA and Maine.
