2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[solrac]

I cant really buy this NH going for Kerry argument that many people are using because they will vote for their next door neighboor.

I disagree.  I think it helps Kerry here to be next door rather than Texas.  But I think the real reason Kerry will win here if he does will be because of the buzz of the primaries that Bush didn't have this year but Kerry did.

The fact of the matter is that every state where Nader was strong, and that state was close between Bush/Gore, will be leaning for a Kerry win this time around.

[solrac]

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.

Boss Tweed,
   Hi, Mr. Devils fan it's earth here.  Most Philly Democrats are not latte drinking liberals.  In fact a lot are pro-life and pro-Iraq war.  Ther reason Philly votes Dem is because of Jesse Jackson and the big unions.  The suburbs have a mix of union workers and bleeding hearts though.  I don't think those voters will be going Nader.  Maybe someone livingin Society HIll though.  

He didn't say that most were...if one in 10 Gore+Nader votes vote for Nader again, that could be enough.

The electorate is aware of the very close 2000 election. There will be very-very-very little votes for Nader this time around.