http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2958I think the hope that Iraq will have improved by November is misplaced. I don't see any hope, at least in the medium term. The administration has been claiming that improvement was on the way for quite a while and things just appear to be spiraling out of control. I would very gladly be proved wrong on this, but sadly think that not the case.
As for the election, I think it unfortunate for Bush that the election will be fought on foreign policy. Although a very strong 'defence' president and presiding over a strengthening economy, foreign policy is not his strongest card.
My predictions can be found at the above link. Kerry by a nose...
