2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[CollectiveInterest]

Foreign policy? The economy? Culture wars?

I consider Kerry a weak candidate--too many votes on big issues based on political expediency--but what does Bush campaign on.

The Iraq War was based on fraud and exploded the deficit.

To the extent the tax cuts have affected the economy, it's been good for the rich and not helpful for middle class workers.

Bush has mismanaged the economy, although Kerry doesn't have much credibility on fiscal discipline.

Bush can run on his Gay marriage amendment, but I detect a lack of sincerity. Bush only believes in the amendment when it's good politics. This sort of duplicity enrages the TBs.

Bush will suffer from depressed turnout and outright defection by social reactionaries.

The big business people are going to defect because of the deficit and a loopy foreign policy.

With Bush's credibility shot, he will have trouble across the country. I predict he will lose at least one state the GOP has won in the last three presidential elections. Virginia? Indiana? one of the Carolinas?

[CollectiveInterest]

Bush doesn't have to worry about his base - either cultural conservatives or business people - for one big reason:  the alternative is so horrible.  The conservatives see that two or three Supreme Court justices will be appointed by the next President, and the business people see that Kerry will raise their taxes enormously.  For all Republicans, a Bush victory is vital.  

One, Bush can't win with just his base; he needs swing voters. You know the people that bought his line about being a "united not a divider".

But beyond Bush getting weak with swing voters he's gonna have trouble with his base.

The business people are jittery about deficits. They probably think divided gov't helps with fiscal discipline. But there's a long list of reasons business people might want to let the Dems run the show.

1. Single-payer health care looks like a good way to cut off a number of labor disputes before they happen.
2. In the tension between optimizing the economy between the stock market and employment, it may make sense to shift toward the employment-centered management.
3. WTO and NAFTA is not working for all industries. There are losers as well as winners.
4. Bush's radical foreign policy is probably making it harder for Americans to do business overseas. Int'l business types also might be nervous about "invade first; ask questions later". There's a bunch of foreign policy issues that aren't being handled well.
5. Bush's strong ideological bent to management and surrounding himself with "yes men" looks like bad management.
6. People may have nostalgia for the Clinton years when everybody was better off.

Cultural reactionaries may defect from Bush for the following reasons.
1. Bush's immigration policies are optimized around business and pandering to Latino voters. He has sold out the cultural reactionaries on this issue.
2. On gay marriage Bush mouths the words, but it's easy to get the impression he's just saying it during an election year and has no intent to push the issue after the election.
3. If any cultural reactionaries haven't been converted from worrying about "Zionist Occupied Government" to thinking greater Israel needs to be achieved before the Second Coming, it would be easy to think that Bush is having his strings pulled by the Sharon gov't.
4. There isn't a political issue that really galvanizes anti-Black sentiment. So it's hard to stir this pot.
5. Members of Right Wing organizations, including socially reactionary organizations, are nervous about the implementation of the PATRIOT Act. I even saw the PATRIOT Act covered in a skeptical light in an evangelical Christian mag being passed at street corners.

[CollectiveInterest]

Here we go :

Any chance of California ever going Republican again?

I'll bite. Why do you think Bush is popular? Why will people vote for him?

[CollectiveInterest]

Bringing morality back to the oval office, cutting taxes, and fighting terrorism. Clinton whereas  brought shame to the oval office, hiked taxes (the largest tax hike in US history), and did very very little about terrorism. Most people dont want to change horses during wartime either.

If Bush lied to get us into a war we didn't need to fight and cost a bunch of money, would that qualify as being immoral?

What's the virtue of cutting taxes if it's just putting the bill on the credit card? Didn't the GOP used to complain about Dems doing this?

Are there more people taking up arms against the United States today than there were when Bush took office? How many "terrorists" do you reckon have been captured, killed or quit for personal reasons? How many new "terrorists" have joined organizations or taken up arms against the USA freelance?

Why do you think Clinton getting blown in the White House will have any bearing on the 2004 election? Are you really that uptight about sex? Do you feel like you can't ask your wife for what you want sexually?

You can criticize Clinton taxing and spending, but it worked better. Deficits were down; economic growth and jobs were up. By what measure is Bush tax/spending policy a success?

Clinton foreign policy stunk. I didn't vote for him in 96 and didn't vote for Gore in 2000. I'm leaning toward not voting for Kerry either. But if you're gonna beat-up on Clinton on terrorism, what do you think Bush is trying to hide by limiting his and Condie Rice's testimony to the 9/11 commission?

If the policies aren't working--and Bush's policies aren't addressing the big threats--why not change leadership?

[CollectiveInterest]

We've discussed this already on another board. Going to a direct popular vote would be an absolute disaster, because in that case the large cities would pick the president. Look at how much Gore won just from big metropolitan areas alone. We may as well not even have a voting system if it went to direct popular vote. I know I'd quit voting.

While I concede the EC isn't going anywhere...

Are you saying that direct election would be less legitimate? Why?

[CollectiveInterest]

I worked in the election industry till 1998 as a pollster/media consultant - I have strong political leanings...  I hate both parties equally and hold both candidates in equivalent contempt...

What's your beef with GOP? Dems?

Do you have separate grievances against Kerry and Bush?