2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[SeattleSquirrel]

My analysis shows the Democrats winning these states in 2004:  California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin; for a total of 255 delegates.  

Republicans win these states in 2004:  Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, N. Carolina, N. Dakota, Oklahoma, S. Carolina, S. Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virgina, Wyoming; for a total of 170 delegates.

Of the remaining "battleground" states, I predict that Democrats should win W. Virginia and New Hampshire, bringing their total to 264.

I predict that Republicans will likely win Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Nevada, and Tennessee, bringing their total to 238.

This leaves Missouri (11 delegates), New Mexico (5 delegates) and Ohio (20 delegates).  

New Mexico is the reason for Bush's otherwise incomprehensible new immigration policy.  I believe that this will not sway voters enough and NM will stay Democratic.

This brings up the intriguing possibility of a 269 to 269 result!  

I expect Ohio to remain narrowly Republican, which makes Missouri the big question mark this year.  If Bush can somehow sway New Mexico in his favor, however, he could easily win re-election.  Even if he doesn't, there's a good chance of a tie.  (I wonder what happens then... it's been too long since I read up on that.)

[SeattleSquirrel]

There is also the chance that W. Virginia could remain Republican; if this occurred and New Mexico also went Bush's way, the Democrats would be faced with a must-win situation in Missouri.  This would give them the victory, 270 to 268.  

Missouri is especially intriguing to me this year for the above reasons.  It should be noted that of the 11 "battleground states" listed above, Bush Sr. beat Dukakis by the lowest margin in Missouri in 1988.  Missouri went Democratic in 1992 and 1996; then in 2000, went Republican by the fourth-smallest margin behind Florida, New Mexico and New Hampshire.  This shows great promise for the Democrats, and I expect them to concentrate their efforts there to guard against a possible upset in New Mexico.