2004 User Predictions - Discussion (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 03:38:54 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 870890 times)
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« on: February 25, 2004, 10:44:07 PM »

OK, I'll give my prediction.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1453

Not too much to add to what I said there...this is before the Nader and Moore announcements, but I'm going to wait to adjust for those. I believe I gave Alaska, Wyoming and Utah to GWB by 70%+ totals, which I can see happening. I was more confident about the Dems ability to hold what they got in 2000 because I don't think the Reps have done a very good job at trying to sway the Gore states. And, like him or hate him, GWB has turned out to be quite a polarizing president, which means that all you people predicting huge margins for either side are being awfully silly. Smiley

Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2004, 12:31:22 AM »

(lots of really interesting info cut for brevity)

Prior to the Voter Fraud Promotion & Enablement Act "Motor Voter" act, polling was much easier - If somebody took the time and effort to actually go down to their local courthouse and register to vote, they were a likely voter.  You asked somebody if they had registered, and if they had - you counted them in the survey results.

Because of "Moter Voter" the number of people registered to vote has gone up dramatically, but most of the newly registered simply don't vote.  Indeed overall turnout still seems to be at best stable and if anything modestly trending downward.

To try to limit their sample to the 50ish% who actually vote, pollsters ask a whole bunch of screening questions, such as how carefully the voter is paying attention, do they know where their poling place is, did they vote in the last election, how enthusiastic they are about their candidate, etc...  Depending on the firm doing the poll there is a screen of anywhere from 7 to 13 questions.  

(more really interesting stuff cut)

Hurray, someone who feels the same way I do about the 1993 National Voter Registration Act, e.g. the "Motor Voter" Act, e.g., the Voter Fraud Promotion & Enablement Act! What a piece of {censored}-up leftist tripe! What possible sense is there in NOT deleting voters who don't vote? Most people on this board would not believe how much cr*p is stuffed into county voter registration rolls because of this!

Vorlon, you are absolutely correct about this. And I KNOW - I spent four years in a County Bureau of Elections, and the things I've seen! The potential for election fraud because of this act is immense, and I know of one local race where it WAS used - a *very* left-wing organization went around a particular city council district asking registered voters if they were intending to vote. In the cases of those voters who said "no", they then arranged to send in their OWN people to vote in their stead. And a VERY corrupt leftist candidate won the race, and has been every bit as bad of a councilor as you might expect. So there's a case study for you, Vorlon. Smiley

And do you know about the very surprising findings of Dr. Michael McDonald about voter turnout rates, at http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm ? It isn't that voter turnout has been declining - it's that, and I'll say it bluntly if he won't, the numbers have been skewed by the huge surge in illegal Mexican immigration since about 1965, which increased the numbers of *people counted by the Census* but not of *eligible voters*. Fun!
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2004, 10:19:03 PM »


I've followed some of the work of Dr. McDonald since he was located in IL until recently. He has studied both redistricting as well as voter turnout. If I recall the trend to lower turnout was due to both immigration and incarceration.

You're right - he does talk about all of that. And he had, by far, the most interesting site on the 2000 (well, 2001-3) redistricting...pretty accurate, too. A pity it doesn't appear to exist any more... Sad
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2004, 09:38:33 PM »


I've followed some of the work of Dr. McDonald since he was located in IL until recently. He has studied both redistricting as well as voter turnout. If I recall the trend to lower turnout was due to both immigration and incarceration.

You're right - he does talk about all of that. And he had, by far, the most interesting site on the 2000 (well, 2001-3) redistricting...pretty accurate, too. A pity it doesn't appear to exist any more... Sad

He stopped updating the redistricting scorecard after he moved to GMU. He has some interesting work at elections.gmu.edu/enhancing.htm.


Thanks for the link! There was a LOT of useful information there. He certainly has a talent for uncovering how things really work (or how they don't work) - case in point: why the Arizona approach to redistricting is better than the Iowa approach...
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2004, 11:28:49 PM »


I've followed some of the work of Dr. McDonald since he was located in IL until recently. He has studied both redistricting as well as voter turnout. If I recall the trend to lower turnout was due to both immigration and incarceration.

You're right - he does talk about all of that. And he had, by far, the most interesting site on the 2000 (well, 2001-3) redistricting...pretty accurate, too. A pity it doesn't appear to exist any more... Sad

He stopped updating the redistricting scorecard after he moved to GMU. He has some interesting work at elections.gmu.edu/enhancing.htm.


Thanks for the link! There was a LOT of useful information there. He certainly has a talent for uncovering how things really work (or how they don't work) - case in point: why the Arizona approach to redistricting is better than the Iowa approach...

The interesting thing about the Arizona redistricting is that there was no intent to place the incumbents in 6 different districts--it just turned out that way.
Now that is interesting...what are the odds of that? In NM, you have to really work at it to put the incumbents in the same district, but in certain states I bet it would be quite easy to set up 'incumbent deathmatches'. Go Arizona Redistricting Commission! Defeat the vile attempt by the Arizona Dems to sue you in court and strip you of funding! Smiley
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,557


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2004, 10:25:42 PM »

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=10896

Final prediction for this election. Title: 'It's Gonna Be A Long Night'.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 10 queries.