2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[elcorazon]

Dean has thw second most delegates, somehow.

It's a mirage caused by all the endorsements he got early on.  Many of the endorsers were superdelegates.  They are not committed and can vote for whoever they want.  I doubt that all of them would even vote for Dean if the convention were tomorrow.

[elcorazon]

Why are New Mexico, Nevada & Missouri so solidly republican, miami?  I'm also surprised you still have  Iowa, WV & NH in the republican camp.  Do you really think the dems can win Arkansas (I know you've got Bush winning, but you have it as a tossup)?

[elcorazon]

Oh yeah, you just have WV in the republican camp to avoid jinxing victory, right?  I'm still in doubt on Ohio, by the way.  I do think that NH is socially fairly liberal and that Bush has less claim to the "compassionate conservative" tag he ran on last time.  Plus, Kerry being close by should help in NH despite the rivalry with Massachusetts, no?

Don't forget the Nader factor either.  Arguably, without Nader, Gore could have carried Iowa, NM easier and arguably could have carried NH.  

My point on Arkansas was that it was more solidly Bush than you had it, but maybe I'm wrong.  I also see it as pretty similar to Louisiana, which was not a blowout in 2000, as I recall.

[elcorazon]

I'm not sure any do.  I don't think Edwards has much impact in Louisiana or Arkansas.  I doubt he has much in Tenn or Va either.  Georgia and SC are too out of reach I suspect.  NC is the only one where he'll make a serious difference, but I think there may be too much ground to make up there.

[elcorazon]

Breakout of Southern States in the 2004 presidential election (as of the latest poll data)

Bush continues to be strong in the South, and support for him in the core of reliably Republican states isn't seriously threatened in my model until his nationwide approval ratings dip under 45%. (At the moment, the average of the latest eight major polls is 51.5%.)

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Lousiana
4. Kentucky (border state)
5. Arkansas
6. South Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. North Carolina
10. West Virginia (border state)

Leans Republican
11. Virginia
12. Tennessee                  
13. Missouri (border state)

Leans Democrat
14. Florida                          

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)

West Virginia is not reliably Republican.  Tennessee might be, however.  Take a look at the 1988 results vis a vis the rest of the country.  

[elcorazon]

All the states that the Constitution Party is on the ballot for I'd guess...
I still think that Dubya will win Alabama and Mississippi but I'm not certain.

I am, though.

Rep Totally safe
1 Oklahoma
2 Mississippi
3 South Carolina
4 Alabama
5 Texas
6 Georgia
7 Kentucky
Rep clear Favorite
8 North Carolina
9 Missouri
10 Tennessee
11 Virginia
12 Louisiana
13 Arkansas
Tossup, Rep if I have to choose one
14 Florida
Tossup, Dem if I have to choose one
15 West Virginia
Dem Favorite
(empty)
Dem totally safe
16 Delaware
17 Maryland
18 D.C.
Maryland and Delaware are traditionally Southern states that have been transformed immensely and are now disputable.
Missouri tends to be classified as Midwestern rather than Southern, but is a former slave state, votes basically like a border state, and has a high percentage of members of the Southern Baptist Convention.
In other words, I classified all states that can be classified as Southern, rather than all states everybody would agree are Southern.

I'm in full agreement with you.   If the dems win any state where the republicans are clear favorites, it is because they have solidly won the election, in my opinion, other than Missouri, which is arguable to be in this category anyway.

[elcorazon]

not a bad analysis.  I still think Wisconsin will go with Kerry, and that Iowa is a tossup.  Ohio is also going to be close and I suspect WV will go to Kerry.  Nevada may also go to Kerry.  I think your percentages will be close +/- 2%, which pretty much tells you nothing.

[elcorazon]

I tend to agree that a scenario where Bush is "Gored" is unlikely but you have to admit your analysis, while logical is simplistic.  The way it "could" happen is if some of the Bush states go for Bush, by wider margins than in 2000 (Florida would be a likely candidate), some Gore states go for Kerry (or Edwards) by a lesser margin than in 2000 (California is often cited as a possibility), but Kerry (or Edwards) manages to eke out a victory in, say Ohio, or NH & MO or some other combination which results in an electoral victory.  I don't see it, but it "could" happen.

[elcorazon]

Vorlon, I've been wanting to do this analysis for a long time.  Thanks for helping me out.  I would like to see 1988 included as well, given that the Republicans won that year and the Democrats ran a "Massachusetts liberal".  I think this would help with the analysis in the south.  I've actually started it already only with the southern states so I think I can use what you did to solidify what I've done so far.

It's going to be another close election.

[elcorazon]

Why are you afraid of democracy, statesrights?  I'm not sure I'd be for a popular vote for president, but I don't know why you fear such a vote.  First of all in over 200 years, there have been only 2 elections where the results were different.  Secondly, if the "big cities" go overwhelmingly for one candidate, I would think that would matter.  Big cities do not vote as a block, anymore than any other group does.  It just happens that the democrats currently appeal to the cities (often due to high concentrations of blacks and other minorities).  I think your fears may reveal your political affiliation more than a valid concern that the results would be less "valid".

[elcorazon]

do you have to ask why he doesnt want the urban areas to have an equal vote to the rural areas?

think back to the platform for the 'States Rights' party

Are you implying that I'm a racist? Disgusting. I am far from a racist. In all honest opinion I wish that blacks would wake up and see what the democratic party is really all about and that is the enslavement of the black people and minorities through dependence on the federal govt.

Dependence = slavery
Independence = freedom

'Freedom is slavery'...

The EC only makes sense if one supposes that Americans are Texans, Montanians, North Dakotians, South Dakotians, New Mexicans, etc rather than Americans. Otherwise, it's just unfair and stupid.

Actually Texas is underrepresented in the ec.  Also, I don't think there should be an 'i' in North or South Dakotans or Montanans.  

[elcorazon]

As long as the news reporters dont say "Florida goes to Kerry (or vice versa)" before ALL the polls have closed! Geesh reporters, Florida is in two time zones.

Reporters are scoundrels anyhow.

I have no problem with the networks making predictions before polls close.  People have to care enough to vote anyway, in my opinion.  Jeez, if the only criteria were whether you thought your vote would ACTUALLY impact the election, turnout would be EVEN lower than it is.  

I've said it before and I'll say it again; I don't think Dubya lost ONE vote due to the early projection for Gore; biggest nonissue ever.

[elcorazon]

As long as the news reporters dont say "Florida goes to Kerry (or vice versa)" before ALL the polls have closed! Geesh reporters, Florida is in two time zones.

Reporters are scoundrels anyhow.

I disagree with you.

There is actually pretty good evidence that an early call of an election impacts turnout in other areas.

When it became clear in 1980 that Reagan was blowing out Carter, a lot of Dems stayed home in the western time zones.  Most pros figure that this vost the DEms maybe a half dozen house seats in California.

When bush "lost" florida in 2000 it likely cost the GOP senate swats in Missori and Washington state.

I'd like to see a uniform nation wide closing time for this reason.

You are raising a separate issue here, which is the impact of projections of the entire election (Reagan projected to win once the East coast & some of the central time zone were done) impacting states still voting.  I was talking about the projection of the state of Florida with 10 minutes or so left to vote.

Supersoulty, I don't know your brother in law (who may or may not be a liar) and I have heard of no accounts of voters leaving the lines to vote due to the projections of the networks within minutes of polls closing in the panhandle of Florida.

I did make another point which is still valid.  A candidate/party has no one to blame but themselves if voters in, for example, California stay home because Reagan is winning, I say too bad. I'm also uncertain how many Reagan voters might also stay home thinking their vote is not needed for Reagan to win, so that would minimize the impact of Carter voters staying home.  If the support is that weak and the voter's concern for the election that shallow, then too bad.  I say this even though, most would agree in general it is more likely to hurt democrats, given that Republicans historically have had a more solid base of support and turnout has been a positive for democrats.

[elcorazon]

I think Vorlon is my favorite member here.  Always informative and educational, never partisan.  I see you changed your map, putting Minn to Kerry.  Any particular reason for that?

[elcorazon]

Hello Forum members, I'm new here and I have high hopes. Let me first say, I'm a foreigner. I'm an Ontario resident in Canada, so I appologize if I make any mistakes. I've made some educated guesses, and I think I did pretty well.

I think the Democrats will win ME, NH, VT, Mass., Conn., RI, NY, NJ, PA, OH, MI, DE, MD, DC, LA, IL, WI, IA, MN, OR, WA, and HI.

Republicans: VA, FL, AL, MS, TN, IN, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD,ND, MT, WY, CO, NM, AZ, UT, ID, NV, CA, AK, and KY.

I think the swing states are WV, NC, GA, SC, and MO. I think that if Edwards is selected as VP the Democrats will win NC, SC and GA.

That's 246-D 225-R and 51- Swing. Who knows, maybe I'm completely nuts.

Siege40

Welcome.  You're the first I've seen to have the Republicans win California, and have them behind.  I think you overestimate the Dems support in the south, but I think Cal will go dem and a few others you had in the rep column, I think could be up for grabs.  I'll be visiting your fair province in a couple of weeks.  Maybe I'll see ya there.

[elcorazon]

yeah.  losing OR & NH seem unlikely to me.  I've been thinking about moving NH into definite dem territory, away from battleground territory, myself.

[elcorazon]

I was being sarcastic, although I do think Kerry will win NH for sure, barring major world events between now & November.

[elcorazon]

here's my current map:

[elcorazon]

I think Bush is in a similar position (though not as bad) as Carter in 1980.  I suspect the swing voters will wind up overwhelmingly in Kerry's camp in the end, causing Kerry to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, NH, WV, OR, MN, Iowa, NM and to make it a race in Florida, AZ, CO, LA, VA, AR, MO, maybe a few others...

PV:

Kerry 51%
Bush 45%
Nader 2-3%
Other the rest

[elcorazon]

Revised for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :



R - 274
D - 264

If New Mexico goes Kerry we have a tie. That would be interesting.

or West Virginia or even Nevada.

[elcorazon]

Just randomly chiming in here after seeing lots of folks' predictions.  Just my two cents, but I think a lot of people are "missing" some standard, well known polling issues...

1) Third party candidates poll roughly double what they'll actually get.  The other half migrate to the major candidate most closely matching their's... In this case, about 50% of the polled Nader support will go to Kerry.

2) Undecideds go heavily (about 70-80%) to the challenger.

This means that almost every state polling even or with Bush up by 1-2% is actually, likely, leaning Kerry.  Zogby said some of this (more simply) on his site yesterday, and he's absolutely right.  This is Kerry's race to lose.  Due to these polling "issues" Kerry is likely ahead in all of the Gore states plus NH, OH, FL and AR... maybe more!  Obviously, many states are close; Bush coulde easily win... and by a lot... with only a slight surge.  But right now, Kerry is ahead... significantly... if one interprets the poll numbers properly.

I tend to agree with you, although I'll reserve that opinion until I hear Vorlon's view of it.

QUESTION FOR VORLON:  How can you be so into the numbers, etc. of the election when you literally have no dog in the fight?  I have no problem with your voting liberatarian, but I just would think the whole battle would be more boring to you, given your disdain for both sides.  I'll hang up and listen for my answer.

[elcorazon]

If SC is lean GOP, then so are KY and IN.

All 3 are solid GOP, but I think SC will be the closest of the 3, with KY being most solid GOP.  Weird, I know, but it's what I think.

[elcorazon]

I wish Texas was still in Mexico.

[elcorazon]

Updated.



Washington, Michigan, Oregon, WV and New Hampshire are finished.

you forgot to fix New Jersey.