2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[The Vorlon]

I just wanted to put out a model for an even 269. Though your right a lot of the states will be flipped from what I indicated.  I just wonder what will the really effect of the Hispanic vote be and not just in this election but in future elections since both parties are still trying to capture that vote right now.  Richardson's speech after the State of the Union was great - if he did run I think he could really animate the urban vote.  http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/RHOriginPD-1990.html  Hey it might even make Texas a competive vote.

One of these days Texas WILL be competitive, I think...the question is just whether it's in 10 years or, say, 30.

In the past 2 election cycles the District Of Columbia has become .6% more Republican.  

The district will thus be "in play" in the year 2408.... if not sooner....

[The Vorlon]

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not
putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  

I just noticed that since I posted this, Vorlon has changed his signature map!  He now has Minnesota and Oregon in the "likely Kerry" color (equates to my "lean Kerry").  Now our maps agree even more.  If Vorlon's "marginal" equals my "tossup", we only disagree on two states- Iowa and Tennessee.

Vorlon, you reading this?  Comment?

*hopeful look* Perhaps we have convinced him!

Re Minnesota - The Minni newspaper poll is, well, total crap.  In 2002 they had Mondale beating Coleman by 6 for the Senate seat.

My cat (who is not that bright, even for a cat) could do a better poll than the Minni nespaper.

Throw it out, or line you bird cage with it.  Check out "Freds 100% all beef super hotdog poll" instead - it is scientifically more valid...

(oh ya.. it was not a well done poll)

If it makes you feel better I have Minnesota about +3 - on the lean/likely line.

"Tossup" is just wimping out.. you have to make a call

Marginal = 0% to 3% point lead
Likely = 3% to 6% point lead
Solid = 6+% lead

so marginal = tossup, or close enough anyway.

Tennessee...

Survey USA, (in a poll that had 7% more democrats in it than it should have) had Bush +11.

It won't be +11, but it's more than 6.

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his running mate, that state is done.

Iowa.

Both parties are polling the ^&^%^! out of Iowa, there have been 4 full sweeps that I am aware of, and likely a few more..

Both sides are spending very heavily.  Heck, the buzz is even the Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is high up the Kerry VP list.

The war gets won/lost this year in Iowa/Wisconsin/Penn/Ohio/West Virginia (maybe Michigan, but I don't think so)

Iowa will be a war. Kerry is maybe 2 up right now, and I would even bet on that.

But your map is very sane and reasonable over all.

[The Vorlon]

I suppose it depends what poll you read.  As I mentioned earlier, Rasmussen has Kerry ahead in Iowa by 10.  That would make Iowa solid for Kerry, by your logic (if you believe Rasmussen).

The states I've designated tossups have some polls with Kerry leading, some with Bush leading.  Hmmmm, which poll to choose.  At this stage of the game, I think it's more sensible just to call them tossups, they could go either way.

You're probably right about Tennessee.  For some reason Zogby and a few other other pollsters consider the state "in play".

You forgot to mention Florida/New Hampshire/New Mexico  Thanks for the feedback

Florida is actually tending Bush's way.  It's kinda like Minnesota is for Kerry.. more than a lean, but not quite a likely...

New Hampshire - Bush is up in the current round of polls, hence my map.  My gut is that Kerry takes it in the end.

New Mexico - That state is unpollable for some reason - the polls just don't work right in that state.  (Louisiania is unpollable as well) Flip a coin.  I'll give it to Kerry based on Governor Richardson.

By the way, most state polls are pretty useless, be careful what you look at.

Right now the race is very volitile, and most firms frankly are not good enough to sort it out.

At the national level there are maybe 5 firms I would trust right now..

[The Vorlon]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush/Cheney 309
Kerry/Edwards 229

Other than New Hampshire & New Mexico, our maps agree...

Flyers 4 - Forces of Evil 1

[The Vorlon]

Everyone knows that Indiana and Oklahoma are in the bag for Kerry while many of what the so-called "polls" claim are the battlegrounds (NH, FL, OH) are heading Bush.

Oh, most definatly

Keep you eye on Utah and Wyoming... I smell upsets for Kerry in those two states.

DC may be very close, but I still think Kerry will eke out a victory...

[The Vorlon]

Revised for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :



R - 274
D - 264

If New Mexico goes Kerry we have a tie. That would be interesting.

The map is actually well within the realm of possibility

[The Vorlon]

EV Scenarios, by Bush approval rating

Bush
Approval   Nader EV   Kerry EV   Bush EV
71%   0   0   538
70%   0   3   535
65%   0   3   535
60%   0   19   519
55%   0   168   370
54%   0   168   370
53%   0   189   349
52%   0   221   317
51%   0   231   307
50%   0   248   290
49%   0   264   274
48%   0   300   238
47%   0   319   219
46%   0   359   179
45%   0   359   179
40%   0   454   84
35%   0   486   52
30%   0   526   12
25%   0   538   0
20%   0   538   0
15%   3   535   0
10%   50   488   0
5%   231   307   0
0%   264   274   0

Pretty darn close !