2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[CTguy]

Republicans wouldn't support that because it would change apportionment.  Right now most prison populations are in congressional districts that are held by republicans and they count as part of the  total a district needs to be valid.  I think some in upstate New York are so large they are almost half the district.  These people can't vote but Republicans who run in the districts there like to keep them because they make their real district size small and easy to run in.

[CTguy]

it's not bad bad in terms of the sheer number of prisoners.  No, I'll give you that.  It's not like districts are dominated by prison populations.  But I think it's bad in the sense that it benefits one party almost unilaterally: Republicans.  Because most prisons are in rural areas that are represented by Republican Congresmen.  In a big state like New York if you took out all the prison populations, Republicans would probably lose an entire district.

[CTguy]

Florida will definitely be in play.  And I think it is more likely Kerry will win it for 2 reasons:

1.) The cuban vote, which Bush won in 2000 by an 8-1 margin, is not nearly as energized because of some refugee policies.  

2.) The new voters in the state since 2000 seem more likely to vote for Kerry since 3 groups that have increased their ratio of the population are blacks, non-cuban hispanics, and jewish americans.  

Why else would Bush be spending so much money there 8 months before the election?

[CTguy]

That's bull.  

If it looks like a duck and quacks a duck then it's a freaking duck.

His voting record is clearly republican on a wide range of issues.  He is less moderate than many Republican senators.  

[CTguy]

Colin Powell would never win, especially not in the south as someone else pointed out...

Lets not forget the fact that race is still a huge factor, especially in primaries when more extreme voters turn out.

1/10 voters still believe Interracial marriage should be banned...  (http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-03-21-gay-marriage_x.htm)

A higher ratio in the south where most Republican primary delegates come from.  Colin Powell would have no chance of winning a Republican nomination...  and he is too conservative to win a Democratic nomination.

The country is clearly not ready for a black president because there are still too many biggots out there who don't even think interracial marriage is ok... and they tend to be older and they tend to vote more than anyone else, especially in primaries.  

But I don't mind not having Colin Powell as President, he is pathetic.