2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Nym90]

Actually, I think a lot of your percentages are way off Mikey. You have a lot of states going more than 80% for one candidate or the other, and almost certainly neither candidate will get over 80% of the vote in any state except for the Democrats in the District of Columbia. The last time any candidate topped 80% of the vote in any of the 50 states was Johnson in Rhode Island and Goldwater in Mississippi in 1964, and likewise Bush would have to win a landslide of equal proportions to Johnson's to even have a chance at 80% of the vote anywhere (Utah or Wyoming the most likely possibilities).

[Nym90]

I thought of that possibility too, but then why would he have some states going >40% Democrat or Republican? They sure look like actual predictions of percentages to me.

[Nym90]

One interesting thing about Hawaii over the years is that it has had a strong tendency to favor incumbent Presidents. In years in which there has been an incumbent Republican (1972, 1976, 1984, 1992) Hawaii was actually not much (if any) more Democratic than the national average, but when there has been an open race or a Democratic incumbent, it votes much more Democratic (especially when there is a Dem incumbent, as in 1964, 1980, and 1996). It will be interesting to see whether this trend continues, but if it does, than Hawaii could reasonably be expected to be only in the lean Dem column.

[Nym90]

That was the Voting Rights Act that you are thinking of that was passed in 1965. The main Civil Rights bill was passed in 1964.

[Nym90]

Actually Goldwater won Louisiana in 1964.
Also, I don't think that Clark would lose Arkansas if he were nominated.

[Nym90]

And the same poll shows that by a 51-41 margin people feel things are on the wrong track rather than the right direction.
And another poll shows the generic Dem nominee beating Bush 48-42.
The polls are all over the place right now.

[Nym90]

Indeed, it did. And as I pointed out, the same poll still has a majority saying that things are on the wrong track. So I guess the question is which way will people vote who approve of Bush's performance but feel that things are on the wrong track?

[Nym90]

I don't see any evidence to suggest that they are, or at the very least to suggest that they would put media bias over ratings and thus advertising revenue. The media are businesses like any other and ratings are number 1 priority to them, with any political bias clearly being less important...you have to do that to stay in business.

[Nym90]

I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

[Nym90]

Given some of Opebo's other comments, I wouldn't treat anything he says as a joke. He's made it clear that Bush should do anything and everything to win this election, no matter what. A little Justice Dept. harassment of Muslims to get them not to vote is nothing compared to faking Bin Laden's capture.

[Nym90]

Indeed, those will all be key factors. It would be nice to see some new polls in Ohio, unfortunatley there hasn't been anything for quite some time.

[Nym90]

I don't think that Bush would do those things, I was merely criticizing Opebo who has stated that he thinks Bush should do those things. I fully realize that Opebo is not representative of and does not speak for Bush and the Republican party.

[Nym90]

True, though he never really talks about social issues much, so maybe he is more liberal on those, but just emphasizes his conservative positions.

[Nym90]

There was a Democratic governor of New Jersey in 1992.

[Nym90]

Hmm, with that motto, and that avatar, are you Donald Trump by any chance, Mooster?

[Nym90]

cskendrick--

You should register to vote in the fantasy elections. We have a presidential election coming up in June. Here's the link...

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=13;action=display;threadid=2153;start=330