The VRA seat no one is talking about: Maryland's third black congressional district

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Under both the 2010-2020 and 2020-2030 MD Congressional maps, there are just two black-majority Maryland congressional seats, and just two black Maryland congressmen. But it is easily possible to draw three black majority (both population wise and CVAP wise) Maryland congressional seats. What's stopping Republicans from a successful VRA suit here? Map for example: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fad910c3-0b85-40f9-bf3a-24cf95dc4bb8

[Oryxslayer]

Likely because racially polarized voting analysis finds the difference in vote patterns between Whites and minorities is nonexistent in MD outside of the GOP periphery, and Maryland has a third seat - it's just a coalition seat with an AA plurality held by the second most insider Democrat. That's probably more than enough to be performing in this state if Hoyer retired.

[Brittain33]

This is an interesting topic. It looks like Steny Hoyer's new district has a roughly equal White and African-American population. You can make the argument that Hoyer is the candidate of the African-American community's choice because he's a Democrat and we haven't seen racially polarized primaries in his district to my knowledge, so the VRA isn't an issue the way it is if the district elected a Republican backed by white voters. So in that case, there's nothing to be resolved by making the district somewhat more African-American.

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Didn't Hoyer's seat become plurality-black in the new map? 50% isn't some magic threshold you need to reach for it to be a black district. The understanding, IIRC, is that Hoyer has the seat as long as he wants and after that it goes to a black Democrat.
Additionally I am skeptical of a VRA suit that doesn't have the NAACP's support.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

Given the composition of PG County's Democratic Politicians, he's almost certain to be replaced by an African American. Which is what the seat is: an African American seat held by a White Democrat initially elected during a different demographic era, and then entrenched and remained the preferred candidate as the demographics changed. There's quite a few of these in California Hispanic districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

Given the composition of PG County's Democratic Politicians, he's almost certain to be replaced by an African American. Which is what the seat is: an African American seat held by a White Democrat initially elected during a different demographic era, and then entrenched and remained the preferred candidate as the demographics changed. There's quite a few of these in California Hispanic districts.

It's not just PG County as well. Charles County is turning more and more black, in a way not unlike Henry County GA.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

Given the composition of PG County's Democratic Politicians, he's almost certain to be replaced by an African American. Which is what the seat is: an African American seat held by a White Democrat initially elected during a different demographic era, and then entrenched and remained the preferred candidate as the demographics changed. There's quite a few of these in California Hispanic districts.

It's not just PG County as well. Charles County is turning more and more black, in a way not unlike Henry County GA.

Demographic change in Charles began far earlier than Henry and is thus rather further along. It was one of only two Dole-Gore counties in the country, along with Orange, FL.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

Given the composition of PG County's Democratic Politicians, he's almost certain to be replaced by an African American. Which is what the seat is: an African American seat held by a White Democrat initially elected during a different demographic era, and then entrenched and remained the preferred candidate as the demographics changed. There's quite a few of these in California Hispanic districts.

It's not just PG County as well. Charles County is turning more and more black, in a way not unlike Henry County GA.

Demographic change in Charles began far earlier than Henry and is thus rather further along. It was one of only two Dole-Gore counties in the country, along with Orange, FL.

This is true. I probably should have said as such and explained that it started far earlier. My bad.

[Torie]

Under both the 2010-2020 and 2020-2030 MD Congressional maps, there are just two black-majority Maryland congressional seats, and just two black Maryland congressmen. But it is easily possible to draw three black majority (both population wise and CVAP wise) Maryland congressional seats. What's stopping Republicans from a successful VRA suit here? Map for example: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fad910c3-0b85-40f9-bf3a-24cf95dc4bb8

The Pubs can hop onto the DRA and find out that drawing three black majority CD's does absolutely nothing for them vis a vis improving their prospects for any more seats than the Dems are willing to give them. So they close the DRA program and have a beer without bothering to remind themselves what is in the Gingles case, whether if Gingles was triggered (it isn't, at least outside the Baltimore area), the blacks are entitled to a minimum of 2 or 3 seats (the population figures give them about 2.5 seats exactly, so with rounding it's on the cusp), and so forth.

[Schiff for Senate]

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

Given the composition of PG County's Democratic Politicians, he's almost certain to be replaced by an African American. Which is what the seat is: an African American seat held by a White Democrat initially elected during a different demographic era, and then entrenched and remained the preferred candidate as the demographics changed. There's quite a few of these in California Hispanic districts.

Another, older example, I believe, would be Charlie Rangel (who served from 1971 to 2017) holding on to his seat even after it became solidly (49.4%) Hispanic and had a much smaller (30%) black population. After Rangel retired, the seat elected a Hispanic Democrat (Adriano Espaillat).

[Boobs]

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

Given the composition of PG County's Democratic Politicians, he's almost certain to be replaced by an African American. Which is what the seat is: an African American seat held by a White Democrat initially elected during a different demographic era, and then entrenched and remained the preferred candidate as the demographics changed. There's quite a few of these in California Hispanic districts.

Another, older example, I believe, would be Charlie Rangel (who served from 1971 to 2017) holding on to his seat even after it became solidly (49.4%) Hispanic and had a much smaller (30%) black population. After Rangel retired, the seat elected a Hispanic Democrat (Adriano Espaillat).

To be fair, race in New York City is far from black and white ( ); Rangel and Espaillat are both mixed-race but different. Rangel's father was Puerto Rican and his mother was Black , having moved north during the Great Migration (Rep. Ritchie Torres has a similar ethnic heritage). Espaillat is Afro-caribeno, like many Dominicans. The Hispanic and Black communities of New York are not necessarily "in competition" in primaries - many people straddle both communities. And neither are Black New Yorkers monolithic; some are, as Rangel's mother, internal migrants from the South. Others are, like Espaillat, Caribbean immigrants or the descendants thereof. There's also a growing African immigrant population, most notably in The Bronx. In fact, sometimes you'd find more primary tensions between different Black communities than you would between Afro-Caribbeans and Latino/Caribbean immigrants. "Classical" Black New York or American South-descended Black residents in Harlem and Bed-Stuy have been on the decline with many of their residents moving out to suburban areas, either out in Queens or elsewhere. Jeffries, Meeks, Torres (partially), and Bowman are part of this group. Yvette Clarke and Espaillat are Afro-Caribeno; Clarke being of Jamaican descent. This community has settled primarily in "outer boroughs" like Brooklyn and The Bronx but have also grown in Harlem. Clarke faced a close primary in 2018 to Adem Bunkeddeko, of Ugandan descent. She herself had won a community-divided, contentious primary in 2006 to succeed Southern-descended Major Owens. Clarke won with 30% (after fellow Jamaican-descended candidate Nick Perry dropped out in an effort to not split the Caribbean vote) with Carl Andrews getting 23% and Major Owens' son Chris with 19% (a white Jewish candidate David Yassky received 27%), resulting in a "racial"/ethnic shift from Great Migration-descended Black Representative to a Caribbean one. 

[Schiff for Senate]

Does anyone have a sense what the primary race will look like when he retires or if he dies this decade?

Given the composition of PG County's Democratic Politicians, he's almost certain to be replaced by an African American. Which is what the seat is: an African American seat held by a White Democrat initially elected during a different demographic era, and then entrenched and remained the preferred candidate as the demographics changed. There's quite a few of these in California Hispanic districts.

Another, older example, I believe, would be Charlie Rangel (who served from 1971 to 2017) holding on to his seat even after it became solidly (49.4%) Hispanic and had a much smaller (30%) black population. After Rangel retired, the seat elected a Hispanic Democrat (Adriano Espaillat).

To be fair, race in New York City is far from black and white ( ); Rangel and Espaillat are both mixed-race but different. Rangel's father was Puerto Rican and his mother was Black , having moved north during the Great Migration (Rep. Ritchie Torres has a similar ethnic heritage). Espaillat is Afro-caribeno, like many Dominicans. The Hispanic and Black communities of New York are not necessarily "in competition" in primaries - many people straddle both communities. And neither are Black New Yorkers monolithic; some are, as Rangel's mother, internal migrants from the South. Others are, like Espaillat, Caribbean immigrants or the descendants thereof. There's also a growing African immigrant population, most notably in The Bronx. In fact, sometimes you'd find more primary tensions between different Black communities than you would between Afro-Caribbeans and Latino/Caribbean immigrants. "Classical" Black New York or American South-descended Black residents in Harlem and Bed-Stuy have been on the decline with many of their residents moving out to suburban areas, either out in Queens or elsewhere. Jeffries, Meeks, Torres (partially), and Bowman are part of this group. Yvette Clarke and Espaillat are Afro-Caribeno; Clarke being of Jamaican descent. This community has settled primarily in "outer boroughs" like Brooklyn and The Bronx but have also grown in Harlem. Clarke faced a close primary in 2018 to Adem Bunkeddeko, of Ugandan descent. She herself had won a community-divided, contentious primary in 2006 to succeed Southern-descended Major Owens. Clarke won with 30% (after fellow Jamaican-descended candidate Nick Perry dropped out in an effort to not split the Caribbean vote) with Carl Andrews getting 23% and Major Owens' son Chris with 19% (a white Jewish candidate David Yassky received 27%), resulting in a "racial"/ethnic shift from Great Migration-descended Black Representative to a Caribbean one. 

Yeah, I know that. Ritchie Torres is an Afro-Hispanic, and there are a pretty good number of them in NYC. It's just that, even if Rangel is an Afro-Hispanic, he's much more associated as an African-American and with the African-American commuunity: I mean, the guy cofounded the Black Caucus. Anyway, your analysis of NYC's demographics/politics is pretty good!

[Boobs]

It's just that, even if Rangel is an Afro-Hispanic, he's much more associated as an African-American and with the African-American commuunity: I mean, the guy cofounded the Black Caucus.

Yes, perhaps to the broader US context Rangel is almost exclusively regarded to as being Black and associated with the CBC. However, we're talking about the workings of a primary within the district, and Rangel was not merely the candidate of the Black community. Thus your depiction of the primaries as being aligned along Black vs Hispanic lines are pretty inaccurate.

Take for example the 2014 primary where Rangel (in purple) narrowly defeated Espaillat (in teal) by a margin of 48%-43% :



Rangel did about the same in the heart of the traditional Black community of the district in Harlem as he did in the Puerto Rican-heavy area of East Harlem, while Espaillat garnered almost all of his support in Dominican Washington Heights and in The Bronx. There was basically an identical map for the 2012 primary where Rangel defeated Espaillat 44-42.

Similarly in 2016, when Rangel retired, Espaillat won the primary 36-34 over State Representative Keith Wright. (Confusingly, in this map, Espaillat is purple and Wright is teal). Espaillat once again got no love from Puerto Ricans in East Harlem. In fact he got 3rd in that area, overtaken by Puerto Rican State Representative Adam Clayton Powell IV.



If Wright had gotten a similar level of Puerto Rican support as Rangel did, he would have won the primary. But Wright did not have the same in-group kinship as Rangel had. Espaillat won the primary off sectional ethnic support from Dominicans.


It's actually a rather remarkable fact that despite the size of the Dominican population in New York City, Espaillat was not only the first ever Dominican US Representative, but also the first Dominican member of any state legislature. Partly this is because Dominican-Americans had for a long time, participated in the American political process at rates lower than even other immigrant groups in NYC. The cause for this was that, while large-scale emigration from the Dominican Republic picked up around the 1980s, many immigrants did not take up American citizenship as dual citizenship was prohibited in the Dominican Republic. Thus it wasn't really until the mid-90s (with Espaillat elected to the NY Assembly in 1996) when such law was changed that many Dominican immigrants began to apply for American citizenship, a process that was amplified in the mid-2000s when Dominican expatriates were also allowed to vote back in the DR. Only after then did the Dominican community really gain in political strength, leading to a narrow Congressional primary win in 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

Credit to @Mill226 on twitter, but I'm just gonna add these because it nicely illustrates my point about Hoyer being the leftover product of a different demographic era, and how his seat is almost certain to elect a African American dem if he retires. You can basically see the outline of Hoyer's various districts by where the Whites are in 1990's PG county. That whole region no longer exists demographically as it did 30 years ago.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's just that, even if Rangel is an Afro-Hispanic, he's much more associated as an African-American and with the African-American commuunity: I mean, the guy cofounded the Black Caucus.

Yes, perhaps to the broader US context Rangel is almost exclusively regarded to as being Black and associated with the CBC. However, we're talking about the workings of a primary within the district, and Rangel was not merely the candidate of the Black community. Thus your depiction of the primaries as being aligned along Black vs Hispanic lines are pretty inaccurate.

Take for example the 2014 primary where Rangel (in purple) narrowly defeated Espaillat (in teal) by a margin of 48%-43% :



Rangel did about the same in the heart of the traditional Black community of the district in Harlem as he did in the Puerto Rican-heavy area of East Harlem, while Espaillat garnered almost all of his support in Dominican Washington Heights and in The Bronx. There was basically an identical map for the 2012 primary where Rangel defeated Espaillat 44-42.

Similarly in 2016, when Rangel retired, Espaillat won the primary 36-34 over State Representative Keith Wright. (Confusingly, in this map, Espaillat is purple and Wright is teal). Espaillat once again got no love from Puerto Ricans in East Harlem. In fact he got 3rd in that area, overtaken by Puerto Rican State Representative Adam Clayton Powell IV.



If Wright had gotten a similar level of Puerto Rican support as Rangel did, he would have won the primary. But Wright did not have the same in-group kinship as Rangel had. Espaillat won the primary off sectional ethnic support from Dominicans.


It's actually a rather remarkable fact that despite the size of the Dominican population in New York City, Espaillat was not only the first ever Dominican US Representative, but also the first Dominican member of any state legislature. Partly this is because Dominican-Americans had for a long time, participated in the American political process at rates lower than even other immigrant groups in NYC. The cause for this was that, while large-scale emigration from the Dominican Republic picked up around the 1980s, many immigrants did not take up American citizenship as dual citizenship was prohibited in the Dominican Republic. Thus it wasn't really until the mid-90s (with Espaillat elected to the NY Assembly in 1996) when such law was changed that many Dominican immigrants began to apply for American citizenship, a process that was amplified in the mid-2000s when Dominican expatriates were also allowed to vote back in the DR. Only after then did the Dominican community really gain in political strength, leading to a narrow Congressional primary win in 2016.

I have to commend you for the depth of your knowledge regarding NYC's demographic groups and their voting styles. This truly is a very interesting analysis, and has taught me a lot about NYC politics (such as how racial alliances work) than I knew before.