Election Calculator / Simulator 2.0 released (Updated 5/5/2023)
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News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Election Calculator / Simulator 2.0 released (Updated 5/5/2023)
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Author Topic: Election Calculator / Simulator 2.0 released (Updated 5/5/2023)  (Read 30687 times)
Virginiá
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« Reply #50 on: November 17, 2022, 11:30:04 AM »

There are a lot of examples where it shows something as wrong, the most extreme example is in 1924, where Wisconsin is won by Herman Farris instead of Robert LaFollette

Thanks - I fixed 1924. It was exhausting putting all this data in by hand so I'm not surprised some of these got screwed up, since I had to alter the way the data was stored several times as the project developed.

Let me know if you see any other incorrect results.
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #51 on: November 17, 2022, 11:31:55 AM »

There are a lot of examples where it shows something as wrong, the most extreme example is in 1924, where Wisconsin is won by Herman Farris instead of Robert LaFollette

Thanks - I fixed 1924. It was exhausting putting all this data in by hand so I'm not surprised some of these got screwed up, since I had to alter the way the data was stored several times as the project developed.

Let me know if you see any other incorrect results.
I will now spend all my free time going over things nobody cares about me just to make it prefect
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Virginiá
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« Reply #52 on: November 17, 2022, 11:33:51 AM »

There are a lot of examples where it shows something as wrong, the most extreme example is in 1924, where Wisconsin is won by Herman Farris instead of Robert LaFollette

Thanks - I fixed 1924. It was exhausting putting all this data in by hand so I'm not surprised some of these got screwed up, since I had to alter the way the data was stored several times as the project developed.

Let me know if you see any other incorrect results.
I will now spend all my free time going over things nobody cares about me just to make it prefect

Make me a sandwich while you're at it.
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #53 on: November 17, 2022, 11:37:15 AM »

There are a lot of examples where it shows something as wrong, the most extreme example is in 1924, where Wisconsin is won by Herman Farris instead of Robert LaFollette

Thanks - I fixed 1924. It was exhausting putting all this data in by hand so I'm not surprised some of these got screwed up, since I had to alter the way the data was stored several times as the project developed.

Let me know if you see any other incorrect results.
I will now spend all my free time going over things nobody cares about me just to make it prefect

Make me a sandwich while you're at it.

In 1796 Maryland casts one more vote than they should have no matter what. All Attempts to reduce either Jefferson or Adams EVs by one will result in the error message. If I get rid of Jefferson, Adams still has one more vote cast than State EVs. This is True no matter what number I set State EVs to.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #54 on: November 17, 2022, 11:51:24 AM »

In 1796 Maryland casts one more vote than they should have no matter what. All Attempts to reduce either Jefferson or Adams EVs by one will result in the error message. If I get rid of Jefferson, Adams still has one more vote cast than State EVs. This is True no matter what number I set State EVs to.

Electors cast 2 votes (President & Vice President) back then and one of those electors cast votes for both Adams and Jefferson.

Those older elections aren't as a customizable in this map generator yet due to the extra complexities in how votes were done prior to the 12th amendment
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #55 on: December 13, 2022, 11:44:09 AM »

When Version 3 comes out there should be a >20% option
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #56 on: February 07, 2023, 10:50:59 AM »

I don't know if its just me, but the names of the candidates will not show up no matter what
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Virginiá
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« Reply #57 on: February 07, 2023, 09:32:57 PM »

I don't know if its just me, but the names of the candidates will not show up no matter what

Can you post a screenshot of this happening? It would help me diagnose the issue by seeing exactly how it comes out on your screen.
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #58 on: February 08, 2023, 10:48:38 AM »

I don't know if its just me, but the names of the candidates will not show up no matter what

Can you post a screenshot of this happening? It would help me diagnose the issue by seeing exactly how it comes out on your screen.

From what I can see its an issue with chromebooks specifically
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Virginiá
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« Reply #59 on: May 05, 2023, 07:37:07 PM »

EV Calculator Update

New
--------------------------------------------------------------------


  • Added 2022 Senate and Gubernatorial election maps


Bug fixes
--------------------------------------------------------------------


  • Fixed bug where pre-loaded maps with flipped states couldn't be changed to non-flipped status
  • Fixed incorrect election data (IL-GOV should have been marked as a flip in 2018, missing/incorrect Senate popular vote data for 2016, WA seat in 2020)



If anyone notices any other incorrect data, please let me know!
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BigVic
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« Reply #60 on: October 09, 2023, 09:19:16 PM »

Any historic Senate/Governor elections prior to 2016?
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WalterWhite
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« Reply #61 on: October 16, 2023, 05:03:13 PM »

When will the statewide election simulator be released?
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cherry mandarin
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« Reply #62 on: December 31, 2023, 02:29:46 AM »

Is there any way to import the code for a map and edit it from there, rather than the other way around? Sorry if this question has already been asked in the past, but I couldn't find any post in this thread where you've addressed this topic before.

I'd like to be able to edit a map that someone else has shared over the forum, or one that I made on here myself (since users can no longer access any old maps through the EVC, apart from their most recently created one).

Thank you in advance for answering, and happy holidays! Smiley


By the way, the PVI listed for each congressional district (Nebraska and Maine) is wrong; they're simply adjusted to reflect the statewide figure. Accordingly, their placement in the list is also incorrect.

I'm surprised this wasn't pointed out already (or was, but I just missed it instead). I did have the PVIs for the CDs in there, but the code doesn't use it, due to a bug. I'll have to fix that. Thanks for pointing it out.

Also, this issue is still present on the website's calculator.

Feel free to let me know if you need the presidential-level PVI figures by state or congressional district, whether prior to Cook's 2021 formula alterations or in their aftermath (I also have both sets of figures from before as well as post-redistricting, FYI).
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Virginiá
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« Reply #63 on: December 31, 2023, 09:50:24 PM »

Is there any way to import the code for a map and edit it from there, rather than the other way around? Sorry if this question has already been asked in the past, but I couldn't find any post in this thread where you've addressed this topic before.

I'd like to be able to edit a map that someone else has shared over the forum, or one that I made on here myself (since users can no longer access any old maps through the EVC, apart from their most recently created one).

Thank you in advance for answering, and happy holidays! Smiley


If you hover over a map, you should see a little "Edit this map" text block appear beneath the map interface. You can click that and it will load it into the editor. Example:



I'll try and remember to take a look at the PVI issue. Maybe tomorrow morning if I have time.
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cherry mandarin
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« Reply #64 on: January 01, 2024, 01:11:16 AM »

If you hover over a map, you should see a little "edit this map" text block appear beneath the map interface. You can click on it, and it will be loaded into the editor.

Thanks. I was wondering, though, if this could be done with maps that have not been the subject of a forum post, but that we nonetheless have the code for. In those cases, will we have to publish it on a thread somewhere, in order to be able to access the "edit this map" button?

The thing is, the PVI figures are (apparently) now "wrong" or "outdated", because (last year) the Cook Political Report supposedly changed the weighting that they gave to certain factors' consideration, shifting the balance to 75% in favour of the most recent presidential election and only 25% for the one before that (as opposed to the older, more even  split of 50/50), for  whatever reason.

I don't know if Virginia wishes to keep her current method of calculating things, or the new one that Cook uses nowadays—in fact, I've personally gone by the statewide margin relative to the national margin  in terms of *total* votes, not just the 2-party share, which I think more accurately reflects  where  any given state  stands, once you take  third-party supporters  into consideration  too.

Either way, the PVI for all 5 CDs is, once again, still incorrect. You can let me know how you'd like  them  to be calculated (old or new boundaries), and I'll gladly do  that  for you. Smiley

For reference, here's the overview and run-down that I wrote for the PVI issue at the time, as well as the minor glitch regarding the boldface highlighting of party names using the selection menu:

I'm surprised this wasn't pointed out already (or was but I missed it). I did have the PVIs for the CDs in there but the code doesn't use it due to a bug. I'll have to fix that. Thanks for pointing it out.

No worries. Do you plan to use the new, "official" figures  released by Cook  in 2022, or the old version, according to the previous format (how you're currently calculating it)? And I assume the listed PVI for each state and CD will follow the *new* post-redistricting lines  when a user selects the 2024 election, but the old boundaries and 2012/2016 PVI values  upon  switching to the corresponding 2020 option? Thank you  for  the helpful clarification.

I designed it to look like the forum & website, which is just 1990s-style minimal/utilitarian layout for everything. That list of radio controls

I'm not sure  if you mean  you made  the interface  back in the 1990s (which, granted, would explain  a lot, haha) or you were simply trying to emulate it  while updating it  over  the past few  years. Either way, I assume you intended  for  the corresponding  column name  to  light up  regardless of  the state's order  in  the  alphabetical list? For instance, if I switch AL to the Republican side, the R will grow, but  if I  then  move  VA  into the toss-up category, it will do  the same thing to "T". However, "R" will still be bolded, which  I think  isn't  what you wanted, since  it  now  conflicts and clashes  with  the newly enlarged T in  the other column.

Thanks Virginia! Happy New Year's to all Atlas posters!

I'll try and remember to take a look at the PVI issue.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #65 on: January 01, 2024, 11:07:49 AM »

I fixed the PVI display issue for the congressional districts. Are the numbers correct? I thought those were the numbers at the time I made that feature, but now they appear to be different on wikipedia. What are the correct numbers for 2016-2020?

I'll have to look into why it's not sorting the CDs correctly though.. I couldn't find an immediately obvious cause for that.
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cherry mandarin
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« Reply #66 on: January 01, 2024, 09:31:25 PM »

There's a few different factors at play here, each of which help explain part of the discrepancy between the numbers in your files:

1) Approximately a year and a half ago, the Cook Political Report updated its formula for calculating PVI figures, at both the state and congressional-district levels.

In the past, they had previously used a simple average of the two-party partisan lean of each state or district over the prior two presidential elections. They maintained this method through the 2021 release of their initial post-2020 PVI dataset, which included the 2016/2020 PVI figures that you use in the current iteration of the EV calculator on this website.

Starting in the summer of 2022, however, they tweaked their PVI formula to heavily favour the most recent presidential election—to be precise, it receives a weight of 75% in their PVI calculations, as opposed to merely 25% for the election before that.

I suspect this is due to the increasing nationalization and polarization of American politics, even at the federal level. Home-state advantages or "favourite-son" boosts no longer count for as much as they used to, making each state's ultimate result far more predictable than in bygone days. Furthermore, trends and shifts in demographic patterns have become far likelier to carry through from one presidential election into the next, rendering it that much more crucial that Cook Political Report's PVI figures remain ahead of the curve, so to speak, rather than lagging behind tomorrow's forecasted electoral realities.

Without any further ado, here's the announcement that the publication released to explain their decision to alter their approach to calculating PVI numbers moving forward:


Quote from: Dave Wasserman
Please note that the formula has been tweaked since we last released the state PVI scores in 2021. With the 2022 PVI release, we've made a slight change to how we calculate PVI scores: instead of going with a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential cycle. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result.

As far as I am aware, however, Cook are the only outfit to have adopted this new 25-75 split. All other major media outlets releasing their own PVI lists either continue to employ a simple 1:1 ratio between the prior two presidential elections, or use exclusively the single most recent recent one in making their calculations.

2) Adding to the confusion even further, Cook has always calculated its statewide and congressional PVI figures based on the two-party share of both the national popular vote (for partisan-lean purposes) and each state or district's individual results. On the other hand, most other relevant publications take the whole picture into account by incorporating all votes cast for third-party candidates into their calculations, rather than discarding them altogether. Ironically, this group of analysts includes the longtime authors of the American Political Almanac, which Charlie Cook himself used to co-write and co-edit.

This difference becomes particularly impactful in cases such as that of Utah 2016, where third-party and independent support reached abnormally high levels. In such instances, Cook's PVI formula can "artificially" pad the leading candidate's edge in a state by a handful of points, at least when compared to the all-encompassing approach used by most other sources. However, the gap usually becomes significantly more muted in the district-level PVI numbers, albeit with a few notable exceptions over the years nonetheless.

3) Re-districting: at the presidential level, this obviously only affects the 5 congressional districts in the 2 states that award electoral votes by congressional district. The old PVI numbers were calculated on the 2010s lines, whereas you probably want the PVI numbers under the new boundaries, at least for the 2024 base prediction maps.

The issue here is, there does not seem to be any reliable source for 2016 presidential-level results using the 2020s congressional district boundaries. As always, Daily Kos has helpfully compiled the results of the 2020 presidential race under both sets of boundaries, but their 2016 dataset only seems to include the old ones.

Given that 2016 results are required for calculating a state or district's 2016-2020 PVI, regardless of whether you use Cook's old or new formulas, it is actually impossible to determine the correct numbers for these 5 congressional districts (unless someone's able to find or calculate the 2016 presidential results under their new lines). This also explains why I have left the 2016-to-2020 swing and trend columns empty for those 5 districts in the spreadsheet attached below.

Since we know the 2016-to-2020 swing of these 5 districts under their old boundaries, I have assumed the same 2016-to-2020 swing for the 2020s version of each district while performing my 2016-to-2020 PVI calculations below. This is because, in spite of the decennial redistricting that took place a few years back, all 5 districts have kept the majority of their previous voters from their respective 2010s iterations—in other words, this process did not result in any of them undergoing fundamental overhauls of the territory they represent.


Are the numbers correct? I thought those were the numbers at the time I made that feature, but now they appear to be different, according to Wikipedia. What should the numbers for 2016 and 2020 be?

For clarity's sake, the EVC on this website goes by Cook's official 2021 dataset, which uses their old formula (50/50) and the two-party vote share in each state. Additionally, the PVI figures for the 5 congressional districts in question follow their old (2010s) boundaries.

Of course, this is to be expected, since you retrieved these numbers at some point in 2021, when you first released the new Atlas EVC tool. Back then, the congressional-district boundaries for the 2022 midterm elections had yet to be finalized by each state, so the dataset that Cook released in 2021 still followed the previous decade's lines.

In any case, feel free to ask me for the figures, and I'll be happy to provide them for you, depending on the method requested (old "50-50" or new "25-75" formula; using Cook's two-party vote-share model or others' all-candidate totals). As for Maine's and Nebraska's congressional districts, I assume you'd prefer their new (2020s) versions rather than the old ones, at least for the main system's 2024 maps. I can certainly also send you the corresponding figures under their 2010s lines as well, however.
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BigVic
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« Reply #67 on: January 22, 2024, 07:46:35 AM »

Need one for past Senate elections from 2018
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Trans Rights Are Human Rights
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« Reply #68 on: March 10, 2024, 08:51:30 AM »

Honestly, I totally get why you can't save a custom series of maps, but it would be so cool if you could. (and I agree with BigVic that pre-2016 Sen/Gov maps would be nice--up to 1990 should suffice, since that's as far back as Atlas proper goes--but again, you don't need to do this if you can't/won't.)
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