Australia 2022 Election

[JimJamUK]

There looks to be a little more diversity in the 2PP polling than last time, but still not enough to make accusations of herding look unfounded...

[JimJamUK]

The UK Labour vote among the genuinely wealthy inner London voter is still pretty derisory. They are capable of winning seats with a lot of wealthy voters if this is balanced out by council estates (see Kensington, Westminster North, the Wandsworth seats etc), but others remain largely wealthy enough to prevent them going Labour yet (Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Richmond Park etc). A lot of these people vote Lib Dem, which de facto cover a lot of the same ground as the teal independents.

Labour are able to do genuinely well in seats that are mistakenly called ‘wealthy’ but are really not eg; the Islington’s, Hornsey and Wood Green etc. These seats do have some genuinely wealthy voters in parts, but they also have council estates as well as many ‘bobo’ voters that are fairly middle class but certainly not upper class (they tend to be private renters who pay a large portion of their income on rent, disproportionately young, a lot of them are ethnic minorities etc). These voters have went Lib Dem in the past and often vote Green in 2nd order elections. Of course, in Australia these sorts of voters tend to go Green in federal elections as well.

UK and Australian voting patterns just aren’t that different, and class voting is still relevant when taking account of other variables (America on the other hand...).

[JimJamUK]

WA now:

Thanks for doing these seat by seat explainers, they are really interesting. I’ve noticed that you expect non-UNS for different states which has previously been a feature of Australian elections. Generally speaking what are the basis for you expecting different states to swing different ways? Is there credible state level polling, is it the popularity/unpopularity (measured in polls?) of state governments, the appeals the federal party are making, or perhaps even something else?

[JimJamUK]

FWIW, the differences between most pollsters (and the difference between the same pollsters polls over time) for 2PP seem worrying small. Only really Ipsos have remotely stood out from the crowd recently with a big Labour lead, so it will be interesting if Resolve does too (their previous results were fairly average).

[JimJamUK]

The teal candidate who won that district is a Vietnamese refugee who used to be a Liberal until 2016.

I wouldn’t consider her to be a ‘teal independent’. Her campaign was focused on being a longstanding local figure standing against an imposed (white) outsider rather than environmentalism. She’s even went as far as to attack the teal independents as not proper independents (like her apparently) due to their funding.

[JimJamUK]

How easy of a ride will Labour get in the Senate? Getting the support of the Greens and David Pocock for socially liberal legislation seems very achievable, but the latter doesn’t seem to have talked much about his economic views (though it’s not like Labor have a markedly left wing agenda). Jacqui Lambie seems kinda left wing (or at least ‘populist’), would she be a reasonably reliable person to negotiate with?

[JimJamUK]

Has anybody got an estimate of how many seats would have been won by Labor and the Coalition had they been the final contenders in every seat? I know the 2PP will come out eventually and answer this, but can guesses be made based on expected swing from last time, Senate results etc?

[JimJamUK]

Geez, Clive . . . $100 million for one Senator who's gonna have zero influence?

Has Palmer’s spending been different from previous elections, because back then it was mainly used to attack Labor which probably represented a decent investment?

[JimJamUK]

Is there any data on Senate voting below the top line results? I’m sure I saw comparisons between the senate vote in a house seat and the corresponding house vote somewhere which suggests it’s available, that or polling booths would be great.