Australia 2022 Election

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html'

Resolve Strategic Poll has Liberals 49-Labor 51 in 2PP vote.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Since the Liberal Party leader must come from Sydney, there's a limited list of options now. At the moment Labor is ahead in Bennelong, which leaves Banks, Berowra, Bradfield (currently in danger from an independent), Cook, Hughes, Lindsay, and Mitchell. MPs for those seats: David Coleman, Julian Leeser, Paul Fletcher (might lose), Scott Morrison (obviously not going to be a candidate), Jenny Ware, Melissa McIntosh, and Alex Hawke. Aside from Morrison, Fletcher and Hawke are the only frontbenchers of the bunch. It's not an exciting group.

Why must the leader come from Sydney? Wouldn't Dutton be the front runner?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I just noticed something kind of remarkable. With Bennelong going to Labor, the Coalition has lost the seat of every former Prime Minister from Menzies to Turnbull, save McMahon (whose seat of Lowe was abolished) and Fraser. They lost the seat of Tony Abbott (Warringah) in 2019, and they just lost the seats of Robert Menzies (Kooyong), Harold Holt (Higgins), John Gorton (also Higgins), John Howard (Bennelong) and Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth).

Had Lowe still been an electorate, furthermore, it likely would have flipped this year too (as its successor division of Reid did).