Australia 2022 Election

[brucejoel99]

So if I'm not mistaken the ALP now not only has a majority government federally, but they are also the government in almost all the states and territories. I think the last powerbase the coalition has is the state government in NSW - normally, you would expect it would be Labor's "turn" to win back power in NSW after a long period of Coalition rule - plus i hear the Liberal Premier there is some rightwing Catholic nutbar cut form the same cloth as Tony Abbott - but then again by the time the next NSW election rolls around the honeymoon for the Albanese government will likely be over and people may not want the ALP in power at every single level.

That's Dominic Perrottet, & yes, he does always look like a high school economics teacher who just stepped out of a sauna. Regarding the NSW Libs, the moderates therein are the most powerful faction right now, but they basically have a truce with the right, hence Perrottet being Premier; said truce is also one on social issues, as neither faction has the numbers to pass legislation that the other would strongly oppose, so the NSW government basically tries to actively avoid significant social controversies, as one happening might just be the one that could tear the party apart. As for the election, it's still a long way's off, being 10 months away, so anything can still happen, but one thing's for sure: Perrottet will never have the personal approvals that his predecessor, Gladys Berejiklian, had; for all of her faults, she came across so, so much better than her Treasurer that a majority of NSW voters were still satisfied with her job performance & even remained sympathetic to her in the aftermath of her resignation that was literally induced by a corruption scandal. Plus, Labor's Chris Minns seems good, & Perrottet's Libs certainly have some nerve when they do things like tell Albo that NSW hospital standards are his problem when Labor has been both out-of-power in NSW for over a decade & federally for nearly as long.

[Ebowed]

So if I'm not mistaken the ALP now not only has a majority government federally, but they are also the government in almost all the states and territories. I think the last powerbase the coalition has is the state government in NSW - normally, you would expect it would be Labor's "turn" to win back power in NSW after a long period of Coalition rule - plus i hear the Liberal Premier there is some rightwing Catholic nutbar cut form the same cloth as Tony Abbott - but then again by the time the next NSW election rolls around the honeymoon for the Albanese government will likely be over and people may not want the ALP in power at every single level.

Historically, once the federal government changes hands, the state governments will begin to fall in the opposite direction.  But if an election were held today you'd expect the ALP to be slightly favored in NSW, and definitely favored in Victoria later this year (although some safe seats could be really interesting with the right independents).

[Pericles]

It's neat that Labor got 77 seats, the same as Scott Morrison got last time. One of the amazing facts about this election that I don't think anyone has pointed out is that they won a majority while having a net loss in Queensland and only getting 5 seats there. Of course it wasn't a complete Coalition wipeout there, the Greens made the gains, but Labor did forge a different path to victory.

[Logical]

Apparently if you are in covid isolation you can ask the operator marking your ballots to draw a penis.
https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1531488845858217984

[Benjamin Frank]

Apparently if you are in covid isolation you can ask the operator marking your ballots to draw a penis.
https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1531488845858217984

Their ballot, their choice.

[Pericles]

Apparently if you are in covid isolation you can ask the operator marking your ballots to draw a penis.
https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1531488845858217984

They would have the worst luck. Anyone can just make a tick for the candidates on the ballot, but drawing penises is something that requires a personal touch, and to actually then see it on the paper they're holding.

[GoTfan]

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Isn't the Gilmore call a bit premature? Labor is leading by 0.2 with about 91% counted, so the Coalition would only need to win what's left by 2 points or so. Do we have reason to believe the remaining batch will is favorable to Labor?

[Pulaski]

Glad to see Clare O'Neil get a big promotion to Home Affairs, and Anika Wells in the outer ministry. Two very capable women who have a bright future in the party.

[brucejoel99]

Isn't the Gilmore call a bit premature? Labor is leading by 0.2 with about 91% counted, so the Coalition would only need to win what's left by 2 points or so. Do we have reason to believe the remaining batch will is favorable to Labor?

While the bolded technically remains a possibility, there are only ~1K votes left to count in Gilmore right now anyway, & at least Antony Green at the ABC uses stats, trends, & math to produce a 99% confidence level in every electorate before he even calls them, so he clearly views the odds of the remaining ballots splitting Liberal enough to close Constance's gap in Gilmore as highly unlikely. He did a 30+ min. talk in Jan. about how he does it all & it was posted to YouTube, if curious:

[FredLindq]

Can anyone explain to me who the crossbenchers are and why the support the new Labour guvernement?! For example Ketter?! Why is a rightwinger as he is supporting Labour?!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's neat that Labor got 77 seats, the same as Scott Morrison got last time. One of the amazing facts about this election that I don't think anyone has pointed out is that they won a majority while having a net loss in Queensland and only getting 5 seats there. Of course it wasn't a complete Coalition wipeout there, the Greens made the gains, but Labor did forge a different path to victory.

The landslide in WA made up for the very difficult map they faced in Queensland. Looking ahead, the 'map' in Queensland is now better than after '19 so if they're seen to have governed reasonably well there's a good chance of gains there next time round, which will likely be necessary as the tide will presumably have started to ebb in WA by then. That different states do their own thing remains one of the most interesting features of Australian federal elections.

[brucejoel99]

Can anyone explain to me who the crossbenchers are and why the support the new Labour guvernement?! For example Ketter?! Why is a rightwinger as he is supporting Labour?!

Katter isn't as simple as being on the right or the left. Economically, he sees more eye-to-eye with Labor than the Coalition, but social views are another matter entirely. He's just an agrarian, which is what the Nats pretend that they are but aren't. Now, maybe he just knew that he couldn't get anywhere with the Libs & so supported Labor to try & squeeze what he could from them, but by his own word, he's said a few times that he has a great relationship with Albo & likes him personally.

Andrew Wilkie, Rebekah Sharkie, Helen Haines, & Zali Steggall are assorted independents, yes (Wilkie sides with the Greens, his former party, ~90% & Labor 80-90% of the time; Sharkie - a Xenophon indy when he was relevant - plus Haines & Steggall vote with each other >90% of the time, & with Labor & the Greens ~60-70% of the time), but otherwise just your normal, relatively responsible Reps. who are no more motivated by ego than any other given politician & actually are probably better representatives of their divisions who are better-motivated to do well for them than major-party Reps.

None of the 6 elected teal indies, the 4 Greens, or Dai Le were involved in Labor's proactive C&S negotiations. The Greens' leader, Rep. Adam Bandt, tried to strike policy deals for his caucus of 4 in the House, but Albo rejected talks, noting that he'd already secured C&S (ofc, Labor needs to play ball soon to get Senate wins, which are only possible with the Greens).

Most of the teal indies, who ousted a sh*tton of Libs, tend to be more economically conservative (reminiscent of classic Liberalism, which is what gave the Libs their name), but socially or just environmentally more progressive, hence their doing so well, since historically urban Lib voters punished the party for its social drift to the right & inaction on the climate. Of them, I've thought that Monique Ryan has given off the vibe of being their most sympathetic to the plight of the less-fortunate & the working-class, but only time will tell via their voting records, so we'll know more ~18 months from now. (The Libs are also now happy that Labor is forming a majority government, although still obviously disappointed that they themselves lost, because they think that it'll marginalize the teal indies & limit their ability to entrench holds on formerly-Lib seats, which is stupid because, if anything, not getting into bed with Albo's government decreases the likelihood of negative press for the teals, but then again, name a more correlated duo than Peter Dutton's high-profile & Lib stupidity.)

As for Dai Le, she's a former Lib who called the teals "fake independents," & a multitude of factors contributed to her Fowler win: she's a popular city councillor there, she says a lot of pro-working class stuff & is kinda economically left-wing but socially conservative (so, the opposite of a teal), & sad ALP infighting favoring Keneally over Tu Le, who would've won.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Essentially think of Katter as a random cranky non-party local councillor or (depending on your system of local government) mayor, who happens to actually be an MP. A small 'c' conservative, absolutely, but with some views that are not exactly right-of-centre and a tendency to distrust the official conservative party as representing elite interests (which is not the same as hating it or never backing it under the right circumstances). Family history is relevant as well: Katter's father was a Labor man until the big split in the Queensland ALP in the late 1950s and joined the Country Party (as it then was) via the breakaway Queensland Labor Party. Unlike many defectors he was not particularly hostile towards his former party and it was always known that he thought the split regrettable, even if he never once thought he had chosen the wrong side. Katter Jr. is to the right of Katter Sr. in most respects, but he has retained his father's lack of partisan hostility towards Labor.

[Pulaski]

It’s also important to note that Katter’s support for the Labor government extended just to confidence and supply (which is not that relevant anymore as Labor have won a majority). Really it was a matter of ensuring functional government and a seat at the table as Labor were the only party capable of forming any kind of government even had there been a hung parliament. Had the numbers been close and both sides courting him I’d fully expect Katter to have supported the Coalition as he did in 2010.

[JimJamUK]

How easy of a ride will Labour get in the Senate? Getting the support of the Greens and David Pocock for socially liberal legislation seems very achievable, but the latter doesn’t seem to have talked much about his economic views (though it’s not like Labor have a markedly left wing agenda). Jacqui Lambie seems kinda left wing (or at least ‘populist’), would she be a reasonably reliable person to negotiate with?

[MaxQue]

How easy of a ride will Labour get in the Senate? Getting the support of the Greens and David Pocock for socially liberal legislation seems very achievable, but the latter doesn’t seem to have talked much about his economic views (though it’s not like Labor have a markedly left wing agenda). Jacqui Lambie seems kinda left wing (or at least ‘populist’), would she be a reasonably reliable person to negotiate with?

He talked a lot about housing avaliability (and his only tweet about the new Cabinet was expressing satisfaction that Housing is now a Cabinet position).

[Not Me, Us]

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

What is the Assistant Minister for the Republic? Why does Australia even have a position like that, it isn't even a republic.

[brucejoel99]

How easy of a ride will Labour get in the Senate? Getting the support of the Greens and David Pocock for socially liberal legislation seems very achievable, but the latter doesn’t seem to have talked much about his economic views (though it’s not like Labor have a markedly left wing agenda). Jacqui Lambie seems kinda left wing (or at least ‘populist’), would she be a reasonably reliable person to negotiate with?

He talked a lot about housing avaliability (and his only tweet about the new Cabinet was expressing satisfaction that Housing is now a Cabinet position).

He also talked about childcare & ensuring that corporations don't avoid paying their fair share of taxes, too, IIRC. Really, his whole pitch was basically that he wasn't born in Canberra, but he lives there, genuinely loves it, & wants to be better representing its interests than his predecessor, Zed Seselja's god-awful job of doing so, & so would see his primary duty in-office as representing the ACT & its interests to the best of his ability. The ACT is rather progressive as a whole, & he's certainly no Marx, but he's solidly socially progressive & economically in-line with the majority of the new Parliament, with a large focus on supporting local business & engaging with locals on their matters, & not being just another politician.

Lambie has a few differences with Labor & the Greens, but it's not a bad mix. Except for votes against renewables, she's a heterodox centrist populist who's basically a well-meaning person from the Tas Country without a pure, Xenophonian ego.

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

What is the Assistant Minister for the Republic? Why does Australia even have a position like that, it isn't even a republic.

His mission in the new post is to restart the national discussion with the public about moving towards becoming a republic & having an Australian head of state, but they've already conceded that ditching the Monarchy isn't a 1st-term priority like the Indigenous Voice to Parliament is. Serious moves toward a republic aren't really expected 'til you-know-what happens.

[Pericles]

Talking about indigenous voice, can someone explain the Uluru Statement from the Heart? Firstly, would the First Nations voice just be an advisory body? And secondly, would it be elected?

I think it's a nice gesture, but the effect could just be slight. Having actual seats in Parliament reserved for First Nations could have a bigger effect and there is precedent for it in NZ, but that is understandably divisive and not the ideal thing to have in a democracy. Hopefully the Uluru Statement is explained well before a referendum to the public, otherwise people could just reflexively reject it.

[xelas81]

Talking about indigenous voice, can someone explain the Uluru Statement from the Heart? Firstly, would the First Nations voice just be an advisory body? And secondly, would it be elected?

I think it's a nice gesture, but the effect could just be slight. Having actual seats in Parliament reserved for First Nations could have a bigger effect and there is precedent for it in NZ, but that is understandably divisive and not the ideal thing to have in a democracy. Hopefully the Uluru Statement is explained well before a referendum to the public, otherwise people could just reflexively reject it.

Big difference between NZ and Australia is that Māori make up 16% of NZ but Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders only make up 2.8% of Australia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

What is the Assistant Minister for the Republic? Why does Australia even have a position like that, it isn't even a republic.

Albo is a republican and wants to restart that conversation, but he's also spoken highly of the Queen on a personal level so, as Bruce implies...

(This is my view as well, btw; monarchy is bad, but doing the job competently and more or less benignly for seventy years is pretty damn impressive.)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Isn't republicanism in australia more of a moderate liberal thing than something labour is interested in ? I remember Turnbull was pretty openly republican.

[brucejoel99]

Talking about indigenous voice, can someone explain the Uluru Statement from the Heart? Firstly, would the First Nations voice just be an advisory body? And secondly, would it be elected?

I think it's a nice gesture, but the effect could just be slight. Having actual seats in Parliament reserved for First Nations could have a bigger effect and there is precedent for it in NZ, but that is understandably divisive and not the ideal thing to have in a democracy. Hopefully the Uluru Statement is explained well before a referendum to the public, otherwise people could just reflexively reject it.

Australia has had a long history of employing paternalistic attitudes toward its Indigenous people, with many policies that were apparently implemented for the benefit of Indigenous communities seeming to have stemmed from an implied proposition that they didn't know what they needed or what's best for them, hence the Uluru Statement's request for Voice Treaty Truth, which represents the consensus of Indigenous leaders in seeking recognition through a specific sequence of reforms: the constitutional establishment of a First Nations representative body to provide advice to the Parliament & Government on laws & policies that impact them, not a 3rd chamber in Parliament that can reject legislation, bring forward legislation, impact the government's C&S, etc., but just an elected, pure voice that the government has to hear & can't just choose to ignore; said representative body negotiating the establishment of a commission to supervise a process of treaty-making between governments & First Nations; & then, & only then, truth-telling about history, because putting truth-telling first asks the people to pour their hearts out before the government has actually, y'know, committed to any changes that would actually make things better. There's been plenty of truth-telling for a long time, but without a commitment to change, no commission, report, inquiry, court case, or even activist movement has actually managed to improve things.

Now, treaties would play a very important role in going a long way toward implementing that positive change, hence their presence at the heart of the Uluru Statement, but the treaty process will require First Nations to be equal negotiating partners so that it can't be rushed like in QLD & so that decade-long negotiations will actually focus on land restitution, compensation, & legitimate self-determination. A constitutionally enshrined Voice goes first so that such a body can be already set-up to properly represent First Nations in holding the government to account, thereby ensuring that, if the government changes in the meantime, the next Coalition government can't just scrap the whole process. A Voice in the Constitution won't impact sovereignty, but treaties will, hence desire for a proper process & real Indigenous oversight.

Basically, the Indigenous community has said that the Uluru Statement represents what they wanna see happen. It's now up to the rest of Australia to listen to them, rather than to try & "improve" it or to deride it as tokenistic, as the Libs have.

[MaxQue]

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

What is the Assistant Minister for the Republic? Why does Australia even have a position like that, it isn't even a republic.

Assistant Minister is an invention of Turnbull, they were formerly called Parlimentary Secretary (and are similar to the equivalent in Canada or UK).