Australia 2022 Election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else shocked a bit at the results in Durack?

Not in the slightest

Why so?
And do you think Durack is winnable for Labor in the future?

[(no subject)]

whatever windbag Bandt might say, the Greens only won a seat off the Libs because the demos of the voters in that seat had changed, not because Greens policies had suddenly become palatable to conservative Australian voters, let alone to most moderate ones.

[Vosem]

Looks like the only two House of Representatives seats left in substantial doubt are Gilmore and Brisbane at this point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like the only two House of Representatives seats left in substantial doubt are Gilmore and Brisbane at this point.

In this late stage, do you expect a Labor majority or a Labor minority?

[YL]

Looks like the only two House of Representatives seats left in substantial doubt are Gilmore and Brisbane at this point.

In this late stage, do you expect a Labor majority or a Labor minority?

Majority I assume, as I imagine he has them winning Lyons and Macnamara, which would be enough.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Gotta say, following the Senate races are much less fun when you don't have the group tickets revealing the parties as they get knocked off one by one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone else shocked a bit at the results in Durack?

Not in the slightest

No - it's fairly clear that Labor would have won the old Kalgoorie division if it still existed.

[Vosem]

Looks like the only two House of Representatives seats left in substantial doubt are Gilmore and Brisbane at this point.

In this late stage, do you expect a Labor majority or a Labor minority?

Majority without something very weird happening in Macnamara. My initial counts were off because I had credited Labor with 67 seats going in rather than 68, but this was because the source I was using was counting Spence as a vacancy (because the Labor incumbent resigned, but too late to have there be a by-election), but then not counting it among the gains. I think Labor is therefore already at 76 absent something very strange. They look maybe-just-by-a-hair disfavored in Brisbane and Gilmore, but both remain very plausible and neither is quite necessary.

[Intell]

Anyone else shocked a bit at the results in Durack?

Not in the slightest

Why so?
And do you think Durack is winnable for Labor in the future?

The swings against the Libs were going to brutal in WA with antagonism towards Scott Morrison and approval of McGowan with his COVID-handling and strong economy (led by a mining boom.

I expect Durack to swing hard back to the libs next time, with environmental policy under Albanese not being popular. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

One seat to go....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-election-2022/

The Liberals won't back Clive Palmer again.

[Pulaski]

Yep, Lyons called for Labor.

With Macnamara not called yet, but not seriously in doubt for me, Labor will take majority government.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia needs more women like this one in politics.

Niece of former Liberal Senator Fred Chaney, Kate is a brain box with an excellent business CV.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/celia-hammond-concedes-defeat-to-kate-chaney-in-curtin/101101442

[Logical]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

[(no subject)]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

[Epaminondas]

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

Australia's voting system is beautiful in that it allows to see further than these FPTP considerations.
Since 2007, 12 percent of the population has found it prefers Green first, then Labour second, but never Liberal. Green+ALP FP has been steady at 44% for 4 elections.

Meanwhile, where's the Coalition's hidden vein of voters after losing nearly 10% of FP since 2013? Katter's Party?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

More like 8% (perhaps 9% this time) as there’s still a stubborn ≈20% of Greens voters preferencing the Liberals over Labor.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

More like 8% (perhaps 9% this time) as there’s still a stubborn ≈20% of Greens voters preferencing the Liberals over Labor.

Who are these people ? Very old voters who don't see the green party as to the left of Labour

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

More like 8% (perhaps 9% this time) as there’s still a stubborn ≈20% of Greens voters preferencing the Liberals over Labor.

Who are these people ? Very old voters who don't see the green party as to the left of Labour

Mostly they are people who aren't very political or don't fit into neat categories that people who follow politics obsessively like to create. It's like these clowns in the UK who go on about "Progressive Alliances" whilst not being aware that all "progressive" parties have some amount of voters who are not only not progressive but quite reactionary.

[YL]

Three party preferred counts in Brisbane and Macnamara: https://www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm

It looks like the Greens are favoured in the first and Labor in the second.

[GoTfan]

Well, that's not shifty at all!

https://twitter.com/farrm51/status/1529931877939036161?t=qoJlptQ9Z7wke3bGG5cTlw&...

[CumbrianLefty]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

The butthurt is strong in this one.

[(no subject)]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

The butthurt is strong in this one.

socialism still has no mass appeal with Australian voters

[GoTfan]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

The butthurt is strong in this one.

socialism still has no mass appeal with Australian voters

The Labor Party is not socialist and hasn't been socialist for many decades.

[(no subject)]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

The butthurt is strong in this one.

socialism still has no mass appeal with Australian voters

The Labor Party is not socialist and hasn't been socialist for many decades.

I'm actually taking a dig at those who think the collapse of the socialist left in the Anglosphere in the last 43 years will be reversed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

The last time Labor defeated the government from opposition (2007) they won 9 out of 19 seats within 3% (9 out of 22 seats if you widen the criteria to within 4%).

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

The butthurt is strong in this one.

socialism still has no mass appeal with Australian voters

The Labor Party is not socialist and hasn't been socialist for many decades.

I'm actually taking a dig at those who think the collapse of the socialist left in the Anglosphere in the last 43 years will be reversed.

So in other words, you've been shamelessly derailing this thread to settle scores with imaginary foes. Thanks for your contribution, I guess.