Australia 2022 Election

[Pulaski]

An absolute mess.
Obviously my predictions were well out along with everyone else’s. I likely won’t be on for the rest of the night as I’m already three sheets. Hoping against hope for a Labor minority government.

[Pericles]

I'm not Antony Green but I do not see how the Coalition can form a government under these numbers.

Bribe the Greens, Net zero by 2025. The Real story of this election is that saying " Screw the Enviorment" is suprisingly not a very popular political postion.

Seriously, what are the chances of this happening even if the numbers are there?

It's impossible because green parties also have other left wing beliefs and ScoMo who held a lump of coal in Parliament can never not be the greater evil to them on the environment either. Rural conservative voters and urban green voters just want different things.

[politicallefty]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

Someone opined that it looked atrocious for Labor, another opined it looked very good.
I think a lot will be made clear as more votes are counted.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Seriously WTF 2 Green MP's from queensland, this is weird. Did anybody predict that ?

The seats were known to be targets for them, I actually predicted Griffith for them, maybe that was a lucky guess.

I always thought Queensland was the most conservative mining heavy part of australia  so I thought it would their weakest state.

It's a common misconception: Queensland is the most unusual mainland Australian state due to its heavily fragmented and dispersed geography that makes it uniquely susceptible to strange local eddies; but one shouldn't treat it like Alberta or something. Heck, the Queensland Labor Party is possibly the most successful local branch of all the states - it was the first ever socialist government in the world, ran the state for decades and only really was crushed by the notorious JBP. Even since then, Queensland Labor has won every state election since 1989 bar 2011 (which itself is revealing - they were utterly obliterated and just immediately came back to life).

[Pericles]

Confirmed that Labor is at least on track for a minority government.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm not Antony Green but I do not see how the Coalition can form a government under these numbers.

Bribe the Greens, Net zero by 2025. The Real story of this election is that saying " Screw the Enviorment" is suprisingly not a very popular political postion.

Seriously, what are the chances of this happening even if the numbers are there?

Very low but there have been deals between the LNP and Greens before, notably on an education funding bill. Tbh the Greens could probably get more concession on an enviormental basis from a desperate LNP but it would be electorally disastrous.

[DistingFlyer]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

At the moment 30.1% of votes have been counted; ABC's numbers are as follows:

Labor - 62 (50.7%)
Coalition - 45 (49.3%)
Green - 1
Others - 5

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm not Antony Green but I do not see how the Coalition can form a government under these numbers.

Bribe the Greens, Net zero by 2025. The Real story of this election is that saying " Screw the Enviorment" is suprisingly not a very popular political postion.

Seriously, what are the chances of this happening even if the numbers are there?

good idea if the Greens want to become the Australian Democrats and the Libs want Palmer to become a major party.

[Pericles]

Frydenberg's vote is down 6%. There was a lot of speculation about that one, is he out? And maybe the double whammy happens if Dutton loses too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm not Antony Green but I do not see how the Coalition can form a government under these numbers.

Bribe the Greens, Net zero by 2025. The Real story of this election is that saying " Screw the Enviorment" is suprisingly not a very popular political postion.

Seriously, what are the chances of this happening even if the numbers are there?

good idea if the Greens want to become the Australian Democrats and the Libs want Palmer to become a major party.

It might make some sense for the Liberals (key word being: some, it still doesn't make sense overall), but the Nationals would have to have a lobotomy to agree to this deal.

[Logical]

Greens currently well on track for 5(!!!) seats.

[politicallefty]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

At the moment 30.1% of votes have been counted; ABC's numbers are as follows:

Labor - 62 (50.7%)
Coalition - 45 (49.3%)
Green - 1
Others - 5

That was the first site I went to actually. I don't see any maps though. I assume Western Australia comes in last, right? I know that's also one of the Coalition's strongholds in federal elections though. Also, from what I recall, the ALP got it's a$$ handed to it in Queensland three years ago. Have things improved there?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

3 of Tasmania's 5 seats are battlegrounds - Labor are targeting Braddon and Bass. Bass is particularly interesting given it's held on a knife edge by the Liberals, but the sitting member Bridget Archer is something of a backbench rebel who's crossed the floor a few times on hot-button issues. It'll be interesting if she garners any support from putting distance between herself and the unpopular government.

The latest I heard was that the Liberals were actually optimistic about holding both of those seats and were even targeting Labor-held Lyon, so it'll be a state to watch, definitely.

Franklin is safe Labor and morgieb summed up Wilkie's strength in Clark very well - he's one of the best MPs in the house and Clark are very lucky to have him.

Tasmania at federal elections is a black box that delights in swinging at random against the national trends (just look at the 80s!) but from what I’ve heard Tassie Libs are a putting on a brave face but both northern seats are on track to flip and Lyons firmimg up with it.

Proven true again, something has to be in the water down there.

[Pericles]

Officially projected that the Coalition CANNOT win outright.

[DistingFlyer]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

At the moment 30.1% of votes have been counted; ABC's numbers are as follows:

Labor - 62 (50.7%)
Coalition - 45 (49.3%)
Green - 1
Others - 5

That was the first site I went to actually. I don't see any maps though. I assume Western Australia comes in last, right? I know that's also one of the Coalition's strongholds in federal elections though. Also, from what I recall, the ALP got it's a$$ handed to it in Queensland three years ago. Have things improved there?

Labor currently on a 3.9% swing in Queensland (nearly double the nationwide swing); seat tally is 19 Coalition to 5 Labor.

Nothing declared in Western Australia yet, though the current Labor swing is running at over 7%; we'll see how that holds.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question: any instances of a veteran Senator being dumped from first place to third and still winning re-election?

[CumbrianLefty]

Officially projected that the Coalition CANNOT win outright.

Well that has proved the worst of the doomers wrong

[Ebowed]

Coalition unable to form a majority government, and I think we can rule out a minority government as well.

ABC projecting that Jason Falinski has lost Mackellar to the teal independent.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Officially projected that the Coalition CANNOT win outright.

Well that has proved the worst of the doomers wrong

Just wait for the Coalition-Green-Teal Coalition to be announced, seriously though it's looking like Dutton might hang on and if he does might just get the leadership by default which would be fun.

[GoTfan]

As said above, it has been predicted that the Coalition cannot win a majority, and apparently willl struggle getting to 70.

The Greens will back Labor in a minority situation, I would imagine the Teals would provide confidence and supply at the very least. No way in hell are they going to the Coalition.

I'm still my doomer self and think that the next few hours will dramatically change the result, but a little bit of hope is coming back.

That latter part is very annoying.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Coalition unable to form a majority government, and I think we can rule out a minority government as well.

ABC projecting that Jason Falinski has lost Mackellar to the teal independent.

Looking at his voting record, he was ripe for challenge. This seems to be the first ever occasion Mackellar didn't vote for the endorsed Liberal candidate since it was established.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

ALP is leading in these Coalition seats:

 Bennelong
 Brisbane
 Chisholm
 Deakin
 Dickson
 Higgins
 Robertson
 Reid

Coalition is leading in these ALP seats:

 Gilmore
 Lingiari
 Lyons
 
Potential crossbench gains:

 Griffith and Ryan for the Greens, potential for Macnamara and Brisbane
 Goldstein
 Wentworth
 Kooyong
 Mackellar
North Sydney
 Cowper

[politicallefty]

I'm still my doomer self and think that the next few hours will dramatically change the result, but a little bit of hope is coming back.

That latter part is very annoying.

As someone that had a night of terror on November 3rd-4th, 2020 watching results, I would urge you to stay calm. (Yes, I know it's not easy.) They've already ruled out a Coalition Majority, so that's something and a big step in the right direction.

[n1240]

Pretty early in WA but some of the first preference votes look real nasty for Liberals there. Massive swings in few poling places reported so far in Perth-based seats. Double digit swings away from Liberal on first preference in these seats, Labor leading on very preliminary TPP in Moore and Pearce.