Australia 2022 Election

[Continential]

Will Dutton win?

[Ebowed]

Yeah, it's a bloodbath for the teals.

It's interesting just how diabolically low the primary vote for both parties is.. especially Labor.  I really wonder what went so wrong in Tasmania.

Victoria is looking really bad for the Liberals.  Not what I expected at all.

[GoTfan]

Yeah, it's a bloodbath for the teals.

It's interesting just how diabolically low the primary vote for both parties is.. especially Labor.  I really wonder what went so wrong in Tasmania.

Victoria is looking really bad for the Liberals.  Not what I expected at all.

I think we have to, at this point, attach some extremely heavy caveats to primary votes. Tonight has shown them to be . . . well, unreliable at best.

Interesting to note there doesn't seem to be a uniform swing. It's all over the place.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm still my doomer self and think that the next few hours will dramatically change the result, but a little bit of hope is coming back.

That latter part is very annoying.

As someone that had a night of terror on November 3rd-4th, 2020 watching results, I would urge you to stay calm. (Yes, I know it's not easy.) They've already ruled out a Coalition Majority, so that's something and a big step in the right direction.

And haven't media networks generally become much more cautious about calling these things after what happened in 2000? If they are officially saying no coalition majority, there is almost certainly a 99.9% chance that this is correct.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, it's a bloodbath for the teals.

It's interesting just how diabolically low the primary vote for both parties is.. especially Labor.  I really wonder what went so wrong in Tasmania.

Victoria is looking really bad for the Liberals.  Not what I expected at all.

It seems to vary from seat to seat. In Casey, the ALP only has a +0.7% swing in its favor, but Chisholm is +6.8%.

[S019]

North Sydney seems lost, with Zimmerman conceding, second seat lost to the Teals by the Coalition, after MacKellar was lost earlier.

[politicallefty]

I'm still my doomer self and think that the next few hours will dramatically change the result, but a little bit of hope is coming back.

That latter part is very annoying.

As someone that had a night of terror on November 3rd-4th, 2020 watching results, I would urge you to stay calm. (Yes, I know it's not easy.) They've already ruled out a Coalition Majority, so that's something and a big step in the right direction.

And haven't media networks generally become much more cautious about calling these things after what happened in 2000? If they are officially saying no coalition majority, there is almost certainly a 99.9% chance that this is correct.

I don't know much about Australian media, although I do know there is some shared ownership with certain media in the US.


I don't know the electorates that well anymore, but are there any urban/suburban/rural swings/trends like we've been seeing in other Western countries?

[Mike88]

Sorry, just arrived here. Teals means Independents, right?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

North Sydney seems lost, with Zimmerman conceding, second seat lost to the Teals by the Coalition, after MacKellar was lost earlier.

That's a monster swing, ouch.
13.4%...

[Pericles]

Green now thinks that the Coalition won't be able to form a government.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sorry, just arrived here. Teals means Independents, right?

Well they mean indepedents running as an alternative to the liberals with more centerist views particularly on the enviorment

[Continential]

Sorry, just arrived here. Teals means Independents, right?

Yeah, more specifically independents running in Liberal seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sorry, just arrived here. Teals means Independents, right?

Teal independents are independents funded by a climate change-driven group that is endorsing independents who are candidates with pro-carbon neutral policies. They are by-and-large running in UMC electorates that have traditionally been firmly Liberal, or "blue-ribbon".
Blue+green=teal.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Really impressed with Kate Chaney out of the gate:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/curt

Super intelligent and experienced business woman. I really liked her campaign and she is a new breed of politician to enter the mix.

My electorate of Fremantle has gone to Labor.

[GoTfan]

Green now thinks that the Coalition won't be able to form a government.

He ust said he can't see them getting to 65.

To be exact, he's saying the Coalition is defeated, but that it's unclear what sort of defeat it'll be. If Labor gets a majority, then Morrison's out as Leader. If it's a minority, I'm less certain.

[Continential]

Anthony Albanese will be the next Prime Minister according to ABC.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Labor leading in Hunter. Currently have a +0.4% swing in their favor, nearly 7% margin over the Nationals.

[Mike88]

Thanks for the info! Interesting wins for these Independents. Also, Labor is at 72 seats now, I know it's still early, but it seems almost certain that Albanese will become PM.

[Logical]

Brutal 9% swing to ALP in WA now. They are going to gain at least 3 seats there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thanks for the info! Interesting wins for these Independents. Also, Labor is at 72 seats now, I know it's still early, but it seems almost certain that Albanese will become PM.

No prob man! Obrigado!

[Mike88]

On Sky they are suggesting that Labor is on track to win a majority.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Labor are ahead in Menzies. Would be a funny gain given the name of the seat.

[Pericles]

On Sky they are suggesting that Labor is on track to win a majority.

My amateur math could see that-looks like they're on a net gain of 5 so far. They need 2 more and plenty of uncalled seats are left. It won't be a Rudd style majority but any majority would be a decent result.

[Estrella]

Love the honesty of (retired?) Australian politicians. The former director of Victorian Libs on ABC: "It's a teal bath." "It will get worse before it gets worse." "The wheel is turning but the hamster is dead."

[Meclazine for Israel]

Josh Frydenberg in big trouble in Kooyong.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/kooy

I am counting 4 or 5 Independent women taking Liberal seats tonight.

Mackellar
Curtin
Kooyong
Goldstein
North Sydney