Australia 2022 Election

[Ebowed]

Two possible explanations for the polls tightening:
1. The polls are herding, like they obviously were in 2019.
2. The race is getting closer.

Personally I suspect both of these are correct (why not?), but the former makes it difficult to tease out whether the latter is actually happening.

In fact, the only reason I would feel unsure predicting a Morrison win is the consistent and strong result for the Labor party in the polling.  If there was a polling embargo and we were expected to predict based on where the candidates are campaigning, the quality of their ads, the way that the candidates are sounding, etc. - then I would expect Morrison to win quite easily.  But it's not so easy to predict that because there is a very real, tangible element of personal dislike of the Prime Minister and the question is whether that is enough to tip it for the opposition (virtually everyone can agree that the opposition has not made a viable case for itself outright, but if the PM is disliked enough, that shouldn't matter).

Independently of this, if there is a sense that a Labor government is inevitable, that may work against the chances of some of the teal independents, particularly in Kooyong.

[Pulaski]

Pauline Hanson has caught covid and she’s unvaccinated.

I’ll refrain from saying anything else lest my post get reported.

[DL]

Interesting to see this massive swing by Chinese voters against the Coalition. In the recent Canadian election Chinese voters swung massively against the Tories and cost them several seats.

https://twitter.com/redrabbleroz/status/1527081791143956480?s=24&t=yBdWEEQ30ZLv8uM3pwxJQQ

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Interesting to see this massive swing by Chinese voters against the Coalition. In the recent Canadian election Chinese voters swung massively against the Tories and cost them several seats.

https://twitter.com/redrabbleroz/status/1527081791143956480

That big of a swing towards Labor is equally absurd as the NPR/Marist poll showing under-40 US voters as Lean R (or the implied AALDEF 2016-2020 R swings among a sample of AAPI subgroups that is explicitly unrepresentative of the national AsAm electorate).

But I would be very surprised if Chinese Australians (who to my knowledge are the most pro-Coalition major Asian group) did not swing significantly left this cycle.

https://twitter.com/redrabbleroz/status/1527082548345847808

[DL]

Are their any hotly contested seats that have significant Chinese-Australian votes?

[Pulaski]

Are their any hotly contested seats that have significant Chinese-Australian votes?

Chisholm, Reid and Banks (all-Liberal held) all have sizeable Chinese-Australian populations. The member for Banks is understood to have done a lot of work building connections with the Chinese community, so his seat is not considered as likely to fall as the other two.

Parramatta also has a number of Chinese-Australians, but also has Lebanese and Indian sections. It’s a Labor marginal, but polling has suggested that the Liberals will struggle to take it.

[GoTfan]

At this point, I'll be very surprised if Morrison doesn't win.

[Pulaski]

Last Ipsos had Labor 53-47, but Coalition up on primary thanks to late undecideds.

Definitely a narrowing in this last week but money still on a Labor government emerging either way.

[morgieb]

Are their any hotly contested seats that have significant Chinese-Australian votes?

Chisholm, Reid and Banks (all-Liberal held) all have sizeable Chinese-Australian populations. The member for Banks is understood to have done a lot of work building connections with the Chinese community, so his seat is not considered as likely to fall as the other two.

Parramatta also has a number of Chinese-Australians, but also has Lebanese and Indian sections. It’s a Labor marginal, but polling has suggested that the Liberals will struggle to take it.

There's also Bennelong with a significant Chinese-Australian population and is hotly contested.

[Pulaski]

Are their any hotly contested seats that have significant Chinese-Australian votes?

Chisholm, Reid and Banks (all-Liberal held) all have sizeable Chinese-Australian populations. The member for Banks is understood to have done a lot of work building connections with the Chinese community, so his seat is not considered as likely to fall as the other two.

Parramatta also has a number of Chinese-Australians, but also has Lebanese and Indian sections. It’s a Labor marginal, but polling has suggested that the Liberals will struggle to take it.

There's also Bennelong with a significant Chinese-Australian population and is hotly contested.

Yes, good point.

[morgieb]

To SA:

Barker - this is the only seat in South Australia that as things currently stand I would feel confident in saying that is safe Liberal. It's the most right-wing part of South Australia and the seat lacks a good independent.

Grey - on paper a safe seat, but this one has a strong Independent challenge in Liz Habermann. It's a tough seat for an Independent to win, but she has the advantage of coming from the most right-wing part of the seat - she can certainly rely upon the Iron Triangle to give her a boost, for example. It's clear that the Liberals are not comfortable here. I would expect like in 2016 the Liberals would just about hang on, but man it's close.

Sturt - another seat that's looking surprisingly tight. Although the majority is large and Stevens has a new personal vote, this one is viewed as being in play. It's a pretty blue-ribbon seat which means that Morrison is probably more on the nose here than in other seats....I guess Liberals narrowly hold.

Boothby - the only seat in South Australia that can truly be considered marginal. The sitting MP is retiring, and the swing sounds like it's on in South Australia. I think this should flip.

Hindmarsh - with the seat now containing the ultra-Labor Port Adelaide area, this is a safe seat.

Adelaide - another seat that's shifted from marginality to safety thanks to the 2017 redistribution. Though of course this seat had stopped being truly marginal after 2007.

Makin - crazy to think that this seat was Liberal-held as recently as 2004. Were Zappia to retire the margin might get interesting as the seat still contains territory that is quite marginal at state level, but for 2022 it's clearly safe Labor.

Kingston - not only was this Liberal-held as recently as 2004, it was still a marginal seat in 2007. It's a bit of an odd one as the area is quite working-class so it being a safe seat is more appropriate than being a swing one, but it shows how SA Labor's hopes have changed since the 90's.

Spence - this is basically a recreated version of the old Bonython. Although the seat is somewhat less urban than that one, it's still a very safe Labor seat.

Mayo - Rebekha Sharkie's seat. This was actually a bit closer than I would've expected in 2019, though I guess the Liberals gave it a huge crack with a Downer (Alex of course being the local MP for many years) as their candidate. Presumably she'll retain this with ease.

So Labor gain one seat (Boothby).

[Pulaski]

And Sharkie to hold Mayo presumably?

[morgieb]

And Sharkie to hold Mayo presumably?

First time I've missed one! Probably Sharkie being a de facto Indie influences things, but I didn't miss Katter/Bandt/Haines/Steggall....

Yeah, I suspect she'll easily hold Mayo.

[Pericles]

SMH: Parties expecting minority government, aiming for 74 seats

It's hard to tell if this is spin or an accurate assessment of the race. There is also some speculation about individual seats in the article. The 74 seat target comes from the comment that Willkie and Bandt would back Labor, while Sharkie and Katter would back the Coalition. That feels about right but is it in doubt?

[Ebowed]

At this point, I'll be very surprised if Morrison doesn't win.

Getting deja vu from 2019 as I watch the two candidates for PM choose their itineraries for their final day on the trail.  Albanese having coffee with Julia Gillard in a pretty safe Liberal seat in Adelaide and then heading to Victoria and Canberra.  Is this really where a Labor leader should be spending their last day of the campaign?  Time will tell.

It feels mad to say that the polls are wrong, so I won't: I don't know which seats Labor will flip, assuming that they hold most of what they've already got, but you'd have to expect a decent result when the polling is consistently saying 53% of the 2PP.

All I can say is that watching these final days, Labor comes across as having not sealed the deal at all while Morrison is trying his hardest to repeat his bull-headed formula from the last one.  The odds are stacked against him, much more so than even in 2019.  What say you, Atlasians?  Does it feel like there is a strong mood for change in the air?  Labor is acting significantly less confident now than at this point three years ago, but that's obviously from the whiplash of the shock loss.  And also partially because of Albanese himself: a thoroughly weak individual whose spinelessness appears to have infected the rest of the party from the top on down.  Go on out there and win it, you losers!  The country is practically handing it to you.

[DistingFlyer]

At this point, I'll be very surprised if Morrison doesn't win.

Getting deja vu from 2019 as I watch the two candidates for PM choose their itineraries for their final day on the trail.  Albanese having coffee with Julia Gillard in a pretty safe Liberal seat in Adelaide and then heading to Victoria and Canberra.  Is this really where a Labor leader should be spending their last day of the campaign?  Time will tell.

It feels mad to say that the polls are wrong, so I won't: I don't know which seats Labor will flip, assuming that they hold most of what they've already got, but you'd have to expect a decent result when the polling is consistently saying 53% of the 2PP.

All I can say is that watching these final days, Labor comes across as having not sealed the deal at all while Morrison is trying his hardest to repeat his bull-headed formula from the last one.  The odds are stacked against him, much more so than even in 2019.  What say you, Atlasians?  Does it feel like there is a strong mood for change in the air?  Labor is acting significantly less confident now than at this point three years ago, but that's obviously from the whiplash of the shock loss.  And also partially because of Albanese himself: a thoroughly weak individual whose spinelessness appears to have infected the rest of the party from the top on down.  Go on out there and win it, you losers!  The country is practically handing it to you.

I can't help thinking of 2007: Labor had been leading - and leading well - for a year or so, but their numbers dipped a bit as the big day approached. Given the result of three years earlier some began to wonder if the Coalition could make yet another surprise comeback, but when it was over Labor had won a decent majority (albeit not the huge one that most pre-campaign polls had suggested).

[GoTfan]

At this point, I'll be very surprised if Morrison doesn't win.

Getting deja vu from 2019 as I watch the two candidates for PM choose their itineraries for their final day on the trail.  Albanese having coffee with Julia Gillard in a pretty safe Liberal seat in Adelaide and then heading to Victoria and Canberra.  Is this really where a Labor leader should be spending their last day of the campaign?  Time will tell.

It feels mad to say that the polls are wrong, so I won't: I don't know which seats Labor will flip, assuming that they hold most of what they've already got, but you'd have to expect a decent result when the polling is consistently saying 53% of the 2PP.

All I can say is that watching these final days, Labor comes across as having not sealed the deal at all while Morrison is trying his hardest to repeat his bull-headed formula from the last one.  The odds are stacked against him, much more so than even in 2019.  What say you, Atlasians?  Does it feel like there is a strong mood for change in the air?  Labor is acting significantly less confident now than at this point three years ago, but that's obviously from the whiplash of the shock loss.  And also partially because of Albanese himself: a thoroughly weak individual whose spinelessness appears to have infected the rest of the party from the top on down.  Go on out there and win it, you losers!  The country is practically handing it to you.

All I can say is that if you don't think there is a systematic bias against Labor in the Australian media, you need to rethink a few things. It's been obvious from the first day of this campaign that both Nine and Newscorp have been out to get Labor by comprehensively ignoring Morrison's many, many scandals.

[Ebowed]

All I can say is that if you don't think there is a systematic bias against Labor in the Australian media, you need to rethink a few things.

My main sources of media are ABC, The Age, The Saturday Paper and The Guardian, all of which are clearly biased towards Labor, particularly the latter two.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

For overseas readers - ABC Australia is currently streaming a pre-election discussion show on YouTube, which presumably means that they will also stream their election night coverage tomorrow night.

[GoTfan]

All I can say is that if you don't think there is a systematic bias against Labor in the Australian media, you need to rethink a few things.

My main sources of media are ABC, The Age, The Saturday Paper and The Guardian, all of which are clearly biased towards Labor, particularly the latter two.

ABC biased to Labor?

What are you smoking?

[Pulaski]

And also partially because of Albanese himself: a thoroughly weak individual whose spinelessness appears to have infected the rest of the party from the top on down.  Go on out there and win it, you losers!  The country is practically handing it to you.

Labor are clearly still traumatised from 2019, when ironically it was the Right-aligned Shorten who led them to adopt a broad, progressive platform, and they got whalloped. It's hard not conclude from 2019 that voters will punish you for being bold and specific on policy, particularly if you're anywhere vaguely near centre-left. 2019 shocked and disappointed me too, and it's hard to deny Albanese's strategy may prove more effective politically.

If the Coalition manage to cling to power tomorrow (and I still think it's very unlikely), my conclusion will be that there exist a big bloc of voters who will just look for any excuse to vote for a conservative party, no matter how trivial.

[Pulaski]

For what it's worth, Roy Morgan's last poll of the campaign has Labor ahead 53-47, and the Coalition's primary vote at 34 - "far too low to win the election."

[morgieb]

Tasmania + the Territories to wrap up my 151 seat journey:

Braddon - always a very marginal seat, and always a pretty volatile one which makes predictions tough to call. Sitting member not all that special but it's also a rural seat so maybe the Morrison hatred will be muted? Still, he seems more bullish about outer suburban electorates than regional ones. Maybe a Labor gain? Very close either way though.

Bass - on paper extremely vulnerable, but Archer has done a good job of defining herself as a maverick and that can be appreciated in Tasmania. Still, I think this looks too marginal for the Liberals to hold on to. A wildcard could be Lambie preferences, who seems to be backing Labor in most seats but the Liberals here. Is there a chance that if Archer holds on against the grain she defects?

Solomon - the urban part of the Northern Territory, containing the cities of Darwin and Palmerston. Currently Labor held but has been marginal in the past. The NT is isolated enough that it could do something odd even as the country zooms left. Still the safest tip is a Labor hold.

Lyons - on paper, this doesn't look too competitive. But the swing here was influenced by the Liberal candidate in 2019 being disendorsed by the party and there does appear to be optimism here from the Liberals. Still, it would be a shock if it flipped.

Linigari - the rural Northern Territory seat. Warren Snowden's old seat, and I think most people agree that he had a massive personal vote. So with him gone this could do odd things. Will still predict a Labor hold as the candidate seems stronger and a 6% swing seems tough in this climate.

Bean - the most right-wing part of Canberra, strictly relative as that is. Like all Canberra seats, the seat is solidly Labor.

Fenner - the seat is slightly more marginal than the old one following the addition of a third seat, but this is still rock-solid Labor territory.

Franklin - this was shockingly marginal in 2007, I think that was because of preselection dramas and the retirement of a popular sitting MP. Otherwise, this is a safe Labor seat.

Canberra - the safest Labor seat in Canberra on paper. In practice, the Greens could ask a few questions - they weren't too far behind the Liberals here and Labor weren't that close to 50% - but I don't think Liberal preferences will flow strongly enough to make things that close. Might be one to watch in the future, perhaps.

Clark - Andrew Wilkie's seat, and he has it for as long as he wants. Were he to retire the seat could get very interesting, with a strong divide between the working-class north and the more middle-class south giving the potential to cause a significant battle between Labor and the Greens (or perhaps a left-ish Independent).

So Labor gain two seats (Bass and Braddon).

Full summary to come after the footy/Newspoll.

[morgieb]

Ah, turns out Newspoll was released at 7:30 rather than 9:30 today.

And it's 53/47.

Herding worries me a bit (numbers seem nearly identical to Ipsos) but absent something really freakish I can't see how the Liberals win.

[Pulaski]

Okay, I've had a good long look and here's my prediction:

Labor: 75 seats (+7)
Coalition: 69 seats (-7)
Crossbench: 7 seats (-) (1 Green, 1 CA, 1 KAP, 4 Independents)

Seats changing hands:

• Bass (Tas): Liberal -> Labor
• Boothby (SA): Liberal -> Labor
• Braddon (Tas): Liberal -> Labor
• Brisbane (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Chisholm (Vic): Liberal -> Labor
• Eden-Monaro (NSW): Labor -> Liberal
• Goldstein (Vic): Liberal -> Independent
• Hughes (NSW): UAP -> Liberal
• Hunter (NSW): Labor -> National
• Lingiari (NT): Labor -> Liberal
• Longman (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Pearce (WA): Liberal -> Labor
• Reid (NSW): Liberal -> Labor
• Ryan (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Swan (WA): Liberal -> Labor

So Labor just to miss out on a majority, but to take government.