Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[LabourJersey]

Would I be right in thinking that the growth of the Alliance and decline of the DUP is in part caused by younger protestants not identifying with the Unionist parties as much as their parents did? Or is this off base?

The recent polls have read to me that the story is more of the DUP's decline than SF's growth, but I'd like to know what the situation is from actual people from NI

[LabourJersey]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

[LabourJersey]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

No. There isn't even exit polling for the Scottish or Welsh elections.

Kind of embarrassing honestly. The local papers don't have a ton of updates either, unfortunately.

[LabourJersey]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

No. There isn't even exit polling for the Scottish or Welsh elections.

Kind of embarrassing honestly. The local papers don't have a ton of updates either, unfortunately.

The transfer aspect renders a lot of predicting somewhat limited anyway, even during counting a lot of incorrect calls are made based on poor prediction of the transfers. So an exit poll of first preference shares would give you exactly the same knowledge as the actual first preference totals but just earlier and less accurate.

Fair point!

[LabourJersey]

Where would you guys suggest looking for results as they start to come in tonight?

My usual inclination is local news sites, so Beflast Telegraph and Irish News seem helpful.

[LabourJersey]

There's no prospect of a border poll or significant movement towards one in the near future - we're only hearing about it because the DUP are fearmongering on the issue as a dogwhistle.

I feel that your statement isn't true unless people share a very narrow idea of those two terms.

Near Future can be the next couple years, or the next 10-20. I don't think a border poll will happen in the next few years, but in 10? The political ground can shift quite dramatically.

[LabourJersey]

It appears that we should start getting results pretty soon

[LabourJersey]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

You have to include either Sinn Féin or the DUP, as they have a majority between them.  Sinn Féin with Alliance and either the SDLP or the UUP would be the obvious choices, but both have problems.

I think the rules at the moment are too rigid; when there's a party refusing to join the executive the other parties ought to be able to get on and form one without them, especially if the resulting executive would still contain both Nationalist and Unionist representation.

Agreed. The power-sharing rules were always fragile but right now it won't take much to just grind governing to a halt

[LabourJersey]

The economy was based on heavy industry and textiles and would have suffered anyway from broader changes in the world economy, but the Troubles made the impact much heavier. Economic policy since then has mostly been about keeping things quiescent and dividing up the pie more than growing it. There's a serious brain drain and continuing reputational issues, both of which discourage outside investment.

The Celtic tiger roaring right as the Troubles ended didn't help either. If major companies wanted a presence on the island of Ireland, they went to Dublin and not Belfast.

[LabourJersey]

Assembly members probably aren't hurting for money, but a collective punishement for the intransigence of the DUP reflects questionable priorities from Westminster.

The next elections cannot come soon enough. Perhaps a twin SF/Labour landslide on both sides of the Irish sea in 2023. Wish it were SDLP/Lab but know better than to hope for that.

Is a SF landslide even possible in NI? Or are we talking relatively speaking?

[LabourJersey]

Whilst not about the Assembly per se - it has been announced that the scheduled local elections in NI have been moved back a fortnight to 16th May next year, so they don't conflict with the coronation of our new monarch on the 6th of that month. Could the English elections due next year follow suit?

Interesting. Though wouldn't the planners of the Coronation have realized that the local elections were the Thursday before?