Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[beesley]

The UUP don't exactly have particularly good organisation in Belfast, and their main goal is an MLA in North, and there's certainly nowhere in Belfast where the TUV are expected to be a problem if they all transfer along, so it should be alright.

[beesley]

DUP co-opt councillor Paul Rankin into Poots' seat in Lagan Valley. What a farce.

[beesley]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0btd6v1 - a reasonably good (albeit long) introduction to the state of the field here.

[LabourJersey]

Would I be right in thinking that the growth of the Alliance and decline of the DUP is in part caused by younger protestants not identifying with the Unionist parties as much as their parents did? Or is this off base?

The recent polls have read to me that the story is more of the DUP's decline than SF's growth, but I'd like to know what the situation is from actual people from NI

[YL]

Would I be right in thinking that the growth of the Alliance and decline of the DUP is in part caused by younger protestants not identifying with the Unionist parties as much as their parents did? Or is this off base?

The recent polls have read to me that the story is more of the DUP's decline than SF's growth, but I'd like to know what the situation is from actual people from NI

Indeed, Unionism has lost some votes at its moderate end to Alliance.  Some of this is to do with Brexit; it should be noted that North Down, perhaps the ultimate heartland of politically moderate Protestants, voted Remain in spite of having a very low Catholic population.  Meanwhile, the more hardline part of Unionism is deeply unhappy with the actual outcome, which explains some of the movement to the TUV.

The UUP might have hoped to benefit from the DUP's difficulties, but my impression is that the UUP really hasn't known what to do with itself since it lost its dominant position twenty years or so ago.  It tried being moderate (Nesbitt), it tried being more hardline than the DUP (Elliott) and it tried being Tories (Empey), none of which really worked.  And perhaps big-U Unionism just isn't what these people are looking for any more; I don't know how my moderate Protestant relatives would vote in a border poll, but they have Irish passports and I think they voted SDLP in the last General Election.  (You can guess which constituency!)

[Frodo]

I know it's from two weeks ago, but since it hasn't been posted yet:

Sinn Féin top Northern Ireland popularity poll
Michelle O’Neill is set to wrestle 15-year stranglehold of the first minister position from the DUP.

[Frodo]

‘Historical shift for Northern Ireland’: what a Sinn Féin win would mean
Polls suggest republicans on course to win most votes for first time in Stormont elections – and provide first minister

In polls, a majority of people in Northern Ireland have backed staying in the UK. The percentage has reduced since Brexit, but is still ahead of support for a united Ireland.

In a University of Liverpool/the Irish News poll in March, 45% backed staying in the UK, 30% said they would vote for a united Ireland, and 25% did not express a preference or did not know. Previous polls have shown younger people are more likely to be in favour of a united Ireland.

In recent weeks, political pressure over the cost of living crisis has forced Sinn Féin to pull its focus back on to more pressing issues for their voters. In the end, it may be the bread-and-butter issues that decide the question.

“If a Sinn Féin first minister is perceived to perform well by crucial ‘persuadable’ voters,” says Pow, “then such voters may be more inclined to support a united Ireland in a future referendum.”

But if a Sinn Féin first minister is perceived to perform badly, it could go the opposite way.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean unless a seismic shift happens in the last few days, SF will top the poll. We have known this will occur for years now, ever since a section of the traditional Unionist vote aligned with Alliance - whether this means a movement on the larger issues or practical day-to-day ones is less clear. What is clear is that by simply holding their reliable base, SF wins through unity.

The real question is what happens afterwards, since Northern Ireland has power-sharing - if there is an afterwards. Who knows if the DUP are willing to enter government of would prefer another period of no government, in effect direct rule by an ambivalent Westminster.

[Frodo]

I mean unless a seismic shift happens in the last few days, SF will top the poll. We have known this will occur for years now, ever since a section of the traditional Unionist vote aligned with Alliance - whether this means a movement on the larger issues or practical day-to-day ones is less clear. What is clear is that by simply holding their reliable base, SF wins through unity.

The real question is what happens afterwards, since Northern Ireland has power-sharing - if there is an afterwards. Who knows if the DUP are willing to enter government of would prefer another period of no government, in effect direct rule by an ambivalent Westminster.

And if the DUP chooses the obstructionist route and forces Westminster's hand, they will be shooting themselves in the foot, as I very much doubt the NI electorate (outside their hardline loyalist base) would look kindly on them and other unionists.  There is a good 20-25 percent (as represented by the Alliance) mostly young voters who could go either way on the unification referendum.  If the DUP wants the status quo to continue, they need to play ball with Sinn Fein even if the latter are in the driver's seat (for a change).  

[beesley]

It should be clarified that whilst a lot of the unionist vote has moved to Alliance, the new voters they are gaining now are supposedly almost as much from the nationalist community. If this materialises into seats west of the Bann, we are yet to see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There isn't going to be a border poll any time soon so that isn't going to come into anyone's calculations.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1520037011335401475?t=Y0mAwmOxAawqnmM9jJ...

A poll for your viewing pleasure. Don't put too much stock in it though - this is a panel poll that did well in 2017 but not so much at Westminster Elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This is happening btw.

[LabourJersey]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

No. There isn't even exit polling for the Scottish or Welsh elections.

[LabourJersey]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

No. There isn't even exit polling for the Scottish or Welsh elections.

Kind of embarrassing honestly. The local papers don't have a ton of updates either, unfortunately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kind of embarrassing honestly. The local papers don't have a ton of updates either, unfortunately.

Not really: proper exit polling (rather than the rubbish that's churned out in the USA) is quite expensive.

[beesley]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

No. There isn't even exit polling for the Scottish or Welsh elections.

Kind of embarrassing honestly. The local papers don't have a ton of updates either, unfortunately.

The transfer aspect renders a lot of predicting somewhat limited anyway, even during counting a lot of incorrect calls are made based on poor prediction of the transfers. So an exit poll of first preference shares would give you exactly the same knowledge as the actual first preference totals but just earlier and less accurate.

[njwes]

Where would you guys suggest looking for results as they start to come in tonight?

[LabourJersey]

Will there be any exit polling like we typically see in Westminster elections?

No. There isn't even exit polling for the Scottish or Welsh elections.

Kind of embarrassing honestly. The local papers don't have a ton of updates either, unfortunately.

The transfer aspect renders a lot of predicting somewhat limited anyway, even during counting a lot of incorrect calls are made based on poor prediction of the transfers. So an exit poll of first preference shares would give you exactly the same knowledge as the actual first preference totals but just earlier and less accurate.

Fair point!

[LabourJersey]

Where would you guys suggest looking for results as they start to come in tonight?

My usual inclination is local news sites, so Beflast Telegraph and Irish News seem helpful.

[beesley]

Where would you guys suggest looking for results as they start to come in tonight?

Even in the US, it'll be tomorrow - you should have the early totals when you wake up in the US. You can look on the news sites LabourJersey suggested above or on the BBC who will be presenting the main TV results show.

[Oryxslayer]

Where would you guys suggest looking for results as they start to come in tonight?

To add further explanation, there is no overnight count here. The boxes will be opened in Belfast tomorrow, and STV will take a bit to calculate.

[njwes]

Thank you all! Didn't realize the counting would start that late/next morning

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1520037011335401475?t=Y0mAwmOxAawqnmM9jJ...

A poll for your viewing pleasure. Don't put too much stock in it though - this is a panel poll that did well in 2017 but not so much at Westminster Elections.

The growth of the TUV has really been interesting to watch. Fair deal of variance in their polling though. LucidTalk always seems to have them at 9%, but the University of Liverpool/Irish News poll has had them hovering around 5 to 6%.

I have to assume that the growth of the TUV is not conducive to courting more moderate unionists who have moved over to the Alliance back into the unionist camp (to the extent that the DUP/UUP are interested in courting them back, though with results like this I would think they have to start trying in a more concerted way to do that).